Agree with the under, but also liking the Jags...
Been going through some old games to find some relevant stats to back up my gut that’s telling me to go with the Jags, the points, and the home team. Del Rio has had quite a ride since 2003 but hasn’t really had too many Prime time / Mon night games as huge home dogs such as the situation tonight.
2006- Jags were small home mon night fav. (-4) over NYG and won by 14…nice, but not really pertinent.
2007-at home against the colts MNF…granted they were only 3 point dogs, but that year Jags were actually a good team (lost to NE in divisionals) AND Colts were coming off their bye that game.
Last year, Jags had a home game against a similarly skilled opponent, Titans. Jags got blown out 30-3 at home but Garrard got injured, Trent Edwards came in and threw few INTS, and the sense of urgency wasn’t really there since Jags were 2-3 going into that game.
Looking at the Ravens: Harbaugh and Flacco both arrived in 2008 so I checked out how they play in these situations…Throw out 2008 since Flacco was a rookie and it was Harbaugh’s first year.
November 16th, 2009 Ravens were big 10.5 pt favorites on the road against the Browns. Similar game, Total was 39.5, except Ravens were coming off a terrible loss against the Bengals…Even with that revenge factor, they only won 16-0 and they beat a Browns team coached by one of the worst ever, Mangini. Throw into the mix Brady Quinn’s 2 INTS that game and Jamal Lewis who was old as fuck was carrying the ball for them….Ravens only won 16-0. Game was actually tied 0-0 at half.
Ravens also played a MNF game last year @ Houston ended up winning and covering as 3 point favs, but this game was in mid-Dec., Ravens were 8-4 heading into that game and the game obviously had more implications than a week 7 game.
All that being said, I like, don’t love, but like the Jags to keep this one close and possibly pull off the upset. Del Rio has been in Jax since 2003 and this I don’t think his back has been this far up against the wall this early in the season. Del Rio is not only coaching for his job, but his career reputation as a coach is potentially on the line. I think Del Rio and coaching staff have been up real late each night this week planning on how to stop Rice and Flacco in order to keep this one close. Makes perfect sense as Del Rio is the defensive minded coach. Game plan is obviously going to run MJD, allow Gabbert to make short throws, and chew up clock to stay within striking distance.
Raven’s haven’t been particularly impressive under Harbaugh as big favorites under the spotlight. Sure Ravens “need” this game to keep up with the Steelers, but they have an easy game next week at home vs. the cardinals and it’s so early in the season that the sense of urgency to go blowout the hungry –for-a-win Jags on the road may not be there.
Bottom line is this should be a close, defensive battle. Del rio knows what he has to do on Defense, hopefully won’t put too much pressure on Gabbert to make tough throws, and will run the shit out of MJD in order to keep his job. Also add to the fact the public just saw a massive blowout with the Saints tonight and will be tempted to lean with the Ravens here. Jags have played some decently tight games this year other than the Jets blowout and they simply are not getting enough love here.
Looking at Jags with the spread, some change on the ML, and possible some parlays with the under. GL