There’s a few ways to look at the outcomes from wildcard weekend. Interested to share opinions on how they shape our view of the divisional round. Here are my personal takeaways/thoughts.
Kansas City-
The chiefs played great….or did they? They beat the brakes off of a decimated and frozen Miami team. Miami never even got off the plane for the game. Mahomes played a decent game. He’s still not playing up to the level of last season, but to be fair there are reasons for that. I think every offense in the league would have had success against Miami. They were horrible in just about every way. The run defense being the bright spot. So I still have to see more to believe that KCs offense is back on track. Not buying in quite yet.
KCs defense looked good as usual. But again, Miami had zero offense. Tua showed that any success he will have in the future will be in a dome or warm weather stadium. Josh Allen and company will be much harder to keep in check.
My takeaway is basically that last weekend’s game meant nothing. I couldn’t possibly say that I was impressed by KC because they played a team of ghosts. I have to believe that in a game against a quality opponent, they look more like they did before the week off then after. Leaning Bills -2.5/3
There’s a few ways to look at the outcomes from wildcard weekend. Interested to share opinions on how they shape our view of the divisional round. Here are my personal takeaways/thoughts.
Kansas City-
The chiefs played great….or did they? They beat the brakes off of a decimated and frozen Miami team. Miami never even got off the plane for the game. Mahomes played a decent game. He’s still not playing up to the level of last season, but to be fair there are reasons for that. I think every offense in the league would have had success against Miami. They were horrible in just about every way. The run defense being the bright spot. So I still have to see more to believe that KCs offense is back on track. Not buying in quite yet.
KCs defense looked good as usual. But again, Miami had zero offense. Tua showed that any success he will have in the future will be in a dome or warm weather stadium. Josh Allen and company will be much harder to keep in check.
My takeaway is basically that last weekend’s game meant nothing. I couldn’t possibly say that I was impressed by KC because they played a team of ghosts. I have to believe that in a game against a quality opponent, they look more like they did before the week off then after. Leaning Bills -2.5/3
This team has the heart of a lion. They play hard for their coach and everyone is buying in. This team believes that they can go all the way, and with CJ at quarterback they have no reason not to. Baltimore is a different beast, but the Houston offense is on fire right now. As long as Stroud and Collins are in the game, watch out.
The defense still has me confused at times. Is it just me or does it seem like they play good defense, but still give up points and yards? It’s interesting to watch. A little bit of bend but don’t break and the star players will make plays at the right time. It will be interesting to watch how Baltimores offense attacks. If Baltimore can pound the run and wear them down, it could be a long day. If they get too cute and try to make it a shootout they better be ready. CJ Stroud will be up to the challenge. Houston +8/9 for now. There is a chance I buy out or even make a play on Baltimore. Giving more than a touchdown to CJ seems dangerous…
This team has the heart of a lion. They play hard for their coach and everyone is buying in. This team believes that they can go all the way, and with CJ at quarterback they have no reason not to. Baltimore is a different beast, but the Houston offense is on fire right now. As long as Stroud and Collins are in the game, watch out.
The defense still has me confused at times. Is it just me or does it seem like they play good defense, but still give up points and yards? It’s interesting to watch. A little bit of bend but don’t break and the star players will make plays at the right time. It will be interesting to watch how Baltimores offense attacks. If Baltimore can pound the run and wear them down, it could be a long day. If they get too cute and try to make it a shootout they better be ready. CJ Stroud will be up to the challenge. Houston +8/9 for now. There is a chance I buy out or even make a play on Baltimore. Giving more than a touchdown to CJ seems dangerous…
Love the thoughts bro. You gotta think Josh Allen finally beats KC in the playoffs will be 3rd times a charm against Mahomes? KC defense will keep them in it so the only one that can beat Josh Allen is Josh Allen himself.. I'm still debating this game cuz it's hard to go against Mahomes as a dog....
Love the thoughts bro. You gotta think Josh Allen finally beats KC in the playoffs will be 3rd times a charm against Mahomes? KC defense will keep them in it so the only one that can beat Josh Allen is Josh Allen himself.. I'm still debating this game cuz it's hard to go against Mahomes as a dog....
I must admit I like buffalo in this spot . I took them in my playoff bracket . But with that being said betting against Andy Reid and Mahomes in the playoffs sounds like a death sentence , especially with them getting 3. I just think this is the most vulnerable they’ve ever been . I personally love the under as i see KC utilizing Pacheco a bunch and making the game ugly . I see a 21-17 type of game
I must admit I like buffalo in this spot . I took them in my playoff bracket . But with that being said betting against Andy Reid and Mahomes in the playoffs sounds like a death sentence , especially with them getting 3. I just think this is the most vulnerable they’ve ever been . I personally love the under as i see KC utilizing Pacheco a bunch and making the game ugly . I see a 21-17 type of game
Is Green Bay for real? Or was Dallas just being playoff Dallas? The evolution of Jordan Love was rapid. In the beginning of the season nobody thought he was anything special. And then the turnovers slowed down. And the receivers started gelling. And just like that, this kid is one game from being in a conference championship.
The thing that stands out from last week was the QB pressure. None. Jordan Love’s downfall is when the pressure gets home. It’s hard for me to believe that the love story continues against the 49ers. The only issue I have is that Shanahan doesn’t blitz. If the front four can’t get there, Jordan Love will have some success. If I’m calling the defense, it’s blitz heavy. Get to Love and this offense will come to a screeching halt and I’m sure of it.
Green Bay’s defense is what it is. They stepped it up against Dallas, but then again the Prescott interceptions were the big difference. They better get a few against Purdy or it’s big trouble. Hard to believe that the 49ers don’t get to at least 28 points. CMC should have a field day. And when that happens the play action will be wide open. 49ers roll. Biggest play of the season for me. Back door is scary with this line but I’ll take my chances. 49ers -9.5/10
Is Green Bay for real? Or was Dallas just being playoff Dallas? The evolution of Jordan Love was rapid. In the beginning of the season nobody thought he was anything special. And then the turnovers slowed down. And the receivers started gelling. And just like that, this kid is one game from being in a conference championship.
The thing that stands out from last week was the QB pressure. None. Jordan Love’s downfall is when the pressure gets home. It’s hard for me to believe that the love story continues against the 49ers. The only issue I have is that Shanahan doesn’t blitz. If the front four can’t get there, Jordan Love will have some success. If I’m calling the defense, it’s blitz heavy. Get to Love and this offense will come to a screeching halt and I’m sure of it.
Green Bay’s defense is what it is. They stepped it up against Dallas, but then again the Prescott interceptions were the big difference. They better get a few against Purdy or it’s big trouble. Hard to believe that the 49ers don’t get to at least 28 points. CMC should have a field day. And when that happens the play action will be wide open. 49ers roll. Biggest play of the season for me. Back door is scary with this line but I’ll take my chances. 49ers -9.5/10
The only reason I don’t already have a play on Buffalo is that I can see this being a 1 or 2 point game. They’ve gotten popular this season. I have a bad feeling that Buffalo wins but doesn’t cover the small spread. Betting against Andy in the playoffs is terrifying for sure. But the KC success is bound to end eventually, and who wants to make that happen more than Josh Allen?
The only reason I don’t already have a play on Buffalo is that I can see this being a 1 or 2 point game. They’ve gotten popular this season. I have a bad feeling that Buffalo wins but doesn’t cover the small spread. Betting against Andy in the playoffs is terrifying for sure. But the KC success is bound to end eventually, and who wants to make that happen more than Josh Allen?
Josh always seems to play on the razors edge. When he's on, he's pretty unstoppable. When he's even slightly off, here come the dumb throws, and stupid interceptions. He's just a tough guy to bet on to play a mistake free game.
I'd love to see Buffalo finally get another chance for their FIFTH go at a SB> Fingers and toes crossed.
Josh always seems to play on the razors edge. When he's on, he's pretty unstoppable. When he's even slightly off, here come the dumb throws, and stupid interceptions. He's just a tough guy to bet on to play a mistake free game.
I'd love to see Buffalo finally get another chance for their FIFTH go at a SB> Fingers and toes crossed.
The defense is serious. They are not f*cking around right now. Hitting hard and tackling. Almost seems like old school football again. Love what Todd Bowles has done with this unit. And the blitz. Nothing better than a coach that loves to send all out pressure. What happened to this style of defense? Why is it seemingly fading away? Isn’t the key to playing good defense to hit the shit out of the quarterback?
I know I shouldn’t get too excited about beating the asshole of the NFL in the Philadelphia Eagles, but I was impressed. All I can say is this- if Goff starts taking sacks, Detroit is a different team. The blitz will be on as usual, and Jared better get the ball out fast.
Even Baker can shred this Detroit secondary. It’s awful and looks to be getting worse instead of better. Throw it to Evans as much as possible. Use the pass to open up the run. If Tampa comes out trying to force the run my head will spin off. I think Detroit is a very good team but 6.5 is too many. With a defense like that it’s difficult to cover a number more than 3. Detroit wins but Tampa comes to play. Tampa +6/6.5
The defense is serious. They are not f*cking around right now. Hitting hard and tackling. Almost seems like old school football again. Love what Todd Bowles has done with this unit. And the blitz. Nothing better than a coach that loves to send all out pressure. What happened to this style of defense? Why is it seemingly fading away? Isn’t the key to playing good defense to hit the shit out of the quarterback?
I know I shouldn’t get too excited about beating the asshole of the NFL in the Philadelphia Eagles, but I was impressed. All I can say is this- if Goff starts taking sacks, Detroit is a different team. The blitz will be on as usual, and Jared better get the ball out fast.
Even Baker can shred this Detroit secondary. It’s awful and looks to be getting worse instead of better. Throw it to Evans as much as possible. Use the pass to open up the run. If Tampa comes out trying to force the run my head will spin off. I think Detroit is a very good team but 6.5 is too many. With a defense like that it’s difficult to cover a number more than 3. Detroit wins but Tampa comes to play. Tampa +6/6.5
Love the thoughts bro. You gotta think Josh Allen finally beats KC in the playoffs will be 3rd times a charm against Mahomes? KC defense will keep them in it so the only one that can beat Josh Allen is Josh Allen himself.. I'm still debating this game cuz it's hard to go against Mahomes as a dog....
Great quarterbacks have been beat by lesser teams before (eventually)..
13 seconds has to be in the Bills minds.. if there is any year the Bills can overcome KC this is probably it considering they are having a down year offensively.. Bills window is over after this year.. if you look at the whole picture..AFC wise it’s going to be a challenge in my opinion to get back here.. they were lucky just to get to this point this season..
im in the same boat.. who wants to bet against Mahomes.. as a Dog!
Love the thoughts bro. You gotta think Josh Allen finally beats KC in the playoffs will be 3rd times a charm against Mahomes? KC defense will keep them in it so the only one that can beat Josh Allen is Josh Allen himself.. I'm still debating this game cuz it's hard to go against Mahomes as a dog....
Great quarterbacks have been beat by lesser teams before (eventually)..
13 seconds has to be in the Bills minds.. if there is any year the Bills can overcome KC this is probably it considering they are having a down year offensively.. Bills window is over after this year.. if you look at the whole picture..AFC wise it’s going to be a challenge in my opinion to get back here.. they were lucky just to get to this point this season..
im in the same boat.. who wants to bet against Mahomes.. as a Dog!
I think this year is actually some of Mahome's best work. Considering he has had some awful receiver play and his offensive line is mediocre.
For example, I posted this elsewhere:
You are correct about their WRs. Mahomes has done an excellent job overcoming this to me. He had a great year considering this.
For example:
KC has the 2nd worst drop% at 7.8%
the 2nd lowest ADoT
the lowest ADoC
This shows he is not able to get them passes down the field because they are not getting separation and he has to throw to TEs and RBs and lowers the depth of the routes and completion.
Therefore, KC has a 12th place PE/Play of .115
19th EPA/Target of .08
Now consider this:
Drop%
1st Watson 18.9
3rd MVS 13.8
7th Toney 11.4
40th Moore 7.1
54 Rice 5.6
Obviously, no one else has 3 WRs in the top 10 in drop%!
PE/Route:
18th Rice .064
66th Watson .020
92nd Moore .000
101st MVS -.008
110th Toney -.036
Now look at Mahomes numbers and realize how good of a season he has had despite this.
I think this year is actually some of Mahome's best work. Considering he has had some awful receiver play and his offensive line is mediocre.
For example, I posted this elsewhere:
You are correct about their WRs. Mahomes has done an excellent job overcoming this to me. He had a great year considering this.
For example:
KC has the 2nd worst drop% at 7.8%
the 2nd lowest ADoT
the lowest ADoC
This shows he is not able to get them passes down the field because they are not getting separation and he has to throw to TEs and RBs and lowers the depth of the routes and completion.
Therefore, KC has a 12th place PE/Play of .115
19th EPA/Target of .08
Now consider this:
Drop%
1st Watson 18.9
3rd MVS 13.8
7th Toney 11.4
40th Moore 7.1
54 Rice 5.6
Obviously, no one else has 3 WRs in the top 10 in drop%!
PE/Route:
18th Rice .064
66th Watson .020
92nd Moore .000
101st MVS -.008
110th Toney -.036
Now look at Mahomes numbers and realize how good of a season he has had despite this.
That is awful play by the WR. Even so Miami could not stop the one dependable WR they have. I think BUF can do a better job at it. I think the key may very well come down to the BUF rushing game vs the KC rushing defense. The BUF O-line may be the best in the league and they have a good running game. KC has a subpar RUN defense and I think BUF can attack this and set the pass up. KC has an okay PASS defense but a good PASS rush. So, I think BUF can set it up better if they are able to run on KC. The last 5-6 games the KC PASS defense has been very bad, so I think that is key unless they perform much better this week.
I do not think you can ever count Mahomes out. I think Allen is so dynamic and fun to watch but is a little wild. I think Reid may have a plan in place to take advantage of that and maybe force him into a couple of T/Os.
But I could see a very good one-score game that comes down to the wire.
That is awful play by the WR. Even so Miami could not stop the one dependable WR they have. I think BUF can do a better job at it. I think the key may very well come down to the BUF rushing game vs the KC rushing defense. The BUF O-line may be the best in the league and they have a good running game. KC has a subpar RUN defense and I think BUF can attack this and set the pass up. KC has an okay PASS defense but a good PASS rush. So, I think BUF can set it up better if they are able to run on KC. The last 5-6 games the KC PASS defense has been very bad, so I think that is key unless they perform much better this week.
I do not think you can ever count Mahomes out. I think Allen is so dynamic and fun to watch but is a little wild. I think Reid may have a plan in place to take advantage of that and maybe force him into a couple of T/Os.
But I could see a very good one-score game that comes down to the wire.
In the Houston game, I cannot get past the fact that CJ is a little worse on the road. That coupled with the fact that BALT has the highest true home-field advantage is hard to overcome.
The BAL Pass Defense is the best in the league and their Pass Rush is excellent. Their 'weak' spot on defense is their Rush Defense, BUT HOU cannot run the ball. So, they almost have to play into BLT strengths.
If HOU can get out to a quick lead I think they may have a chance, because, like you say, they are tough and inspired. The trick is that LJ has been playing so well. But he has been doing it from a good position, usually ahead. But if HOU can force him to have to win it -- he can make mistakes. He has had issues in the playoffs when he has been schemed well against and made to throw inside the numbers. HOU should be able to make him get rid of the ball fairly quick and that will help, if they contain him as well.
BUT if they let BLT get a running start -- it could be over early.
In the Houston game, I cannot get past the fact that CJ is a little worse on the road. That coupled with the fact that BALT has the highest true home-field advantage is hard to overcome.
The BAL Pass Defense is the best in the league and their Pass Rush is excellent. Their 'weak' spot on defense is their Rush Defense, BUT HOU cannot run the ball. So, they almost have to play into BLT strengths.
If HOU can get out to a quick lead I think they may have a chance, because, like you say, they are tough and inspired. The trick is that LJ has been playing so well. But he has been doing it from a good position, usually ahead. But if HOU can force him to have to win it -- he can make mistakes. He has had issues in the playoffs when he has been schemed well against and made to throw inside the numbers. HOU should be able to make him get rid of the ball fairly quick and that will help, if they contain him as well.
BUT if they let BLT get a running start -- it could be over early.
In the Green Bay game I think it absolutely will be an interesting game. If you look at certain numbers from just the last 5-6-7 games you might even want to favor GB. Love has made the most dramatic improvement from the first half of the season to the second half that I have seen in some time. The defense is playing very well. They can defend the pass and run well and they have a decent pass rush.
The two issues will be that SF will be rested and that they simply have so many weapons. Purdy has done a very good job at spreading the ball around and taking what the defense allows him. He also makes very good in-game adjustments to what the defense does. The SF YAC is well known and that they also lead the league in causing missing and broken tackles. GB is well down the list in allowing broken and missed tackles -- this will be very key to me.
If the GB from the last few weeks shows up with confidence, they could very well upset SF. Because like BLT -- SF cannot come out rusty. When some of your starters have in effect been 'resting' for 3 weeks, it may show up. They sat some the last game, had the bye week and all this week.
But if GB can force Purdy to get rid of the ball and not move around in the pocket and take deep shots they can be in the game I think. But they cannot miss tackles and give up extra yardage and FDs.
In the Green Bay game I think it absolutely will be an interesting game. If you look at certain numbers from just the last 5-6-7 games you might even want to favor GB. Love has made the most dramatic improvement from the first half of the season to the second half that I have seen in some time. The defense is playing very well. They can defend the pass and run well and they have a decent pass rush.
The two issues will be that SF will be rested and that they simply have so many weapons. Purdy has done a very good job at spreading the ball around and taking what the defense allows him. He also makes very good in-game adjustments to what the defense does. The SF YAC is well known and that they also lead the league in causing missing and broken tackles. GB is well down the list in allowing broken and missed tackles -- this will be very key to me.
If the GB from the last few weeks shows up with confidence, they could very well upset SF. Because like BLT -- SF cannot come out rusty. When some of your starters have in effect been 'resting' for 3 weeks, it may show up. They sat some the last game, had the bye week and all this week.
But if GB can force Purdy to get rid of the ball and not move around in the pocket and take deep shots they can be in the game I think. But they cannot miss tackles and give up extra yardage and FDs.
In the DET/TB game, I think a lot depends on clean QB play. Goff will have to mix it up quite a bit and they will have to have the running game working because like you said TB Pass Defense is playing very well. I have never trusted Mayfield a lot. But he has some nice weapons if they are clicking. If Evans can hang onto the ball, etc.
I think this could be a good exciting game. It could turn into a shootout and still be a one-score game at the end. It just looks like TB may have the ability on DEF to slow down DET. But I am not sure how much Mayfield can take advantage of the DET defense.
I actually think this is the most intriguing matchup. Because I could see either team being overly confident after last week's wins. I may be wrong about Mayfield and the fact that TB barely won that division both making me leery about them. Maybe they are firing on all cylinders at the right time now.
In the DET/TB game, I think a lot depends on clean QB play. Goff will have to mix it up quite a bit and they will have to have the running game working because like you said TB Pass Defense is playing very well. I have never trusted Mayfield a lot. But he has some nice weapons if they are clicking. If Evans can hang onto the ball, etc.
I think this could be a good exciting game. It could turn into a shootout and still be a one-score game at the end. It just looks like TB may have the ability on DEF to slow down DET. But I am not sure how much Mayfield can take advantage of the DET defense.
I actually think this is the most intriguing matchup. Because I could see either team being overly confident after last week's wins. I may be wrong about Mayfield and the fact that TB barely won that division both making me leery about them. Maybe they are firing on all cylinders at the right time now.
The more I look at Houston the more I want to take Baltimore. I just can’t pull the trigger. Obviously 3 scenarios are very possible- Houston comes out fired up and it’s a close game the whole way. Ravens defense gives CJ a lot of issues and Houston struggles to stay in the game.
Or it’s just a back door situation. Either way I have a hard time laying the points.
49ers game is a done deal for me. I don’t believe in the Packers and I’ve had the 9ers as my SB pick for the whole season. I may end up being totally wrong here-
I don’t think Jordan Love is a superhero like the media hypes him up to be. The 3 turnover game is just around the corner.
I hate Matt Lafleur. Again this guy gets a ton of praise. A lot of their recent collapses have been on him in my opinion. I’ve watched him very closely over the years. I could make a long list of all the things I think he’s horrible at.
The defense is a joke to me. At some point the fans and gamblers have to realize that the teams are what they have been. The Eagles were a mirage, Josh Allen is a turnover machine, the Cowboys can’t get it done in the playoffs, Flacco is a has been …I could go on and on. The Packers defense sucks. They sucked all year. Ranked 27th in defensive DVOA. They played well last week…still don’t care. 49ers should cut through this team like a hot knife.
Hopefully I’m not overreacting to last week but I love Tampa. I think they have a real shot to pull off the upset. I can’t trust Dan Campbell in a playoff game and I can’t trust Goff under pressure. Bottom line. I don’t necessarily trust baker mayfield either but I like the overall matchup. I remember you and I were talking a couple weeks ago and I said that I thought Tampa could be a nightmare matchup in the playoffs. If they played Dallas I would have been all over Tampa.
looking forward to seeing your plays this weekend. We both took a loss on Pittsburgh but other than that what are we 6,7-0 on common picks now?
The more I look at Houston the more I want to take Baltimore. I just can’t pull the trigger. Obviously 3 scenarios are very possible- Houston comes out fired up and it’s a close game the whole way. Ravens defense gives CJ a lot of issues and Houston struggles to stay in the game.
Or it’s just a back door situation. Either way I have a hard time laying the points.
49ers game is a done deal for me. I don’t believe in the Packers and I’ve had the 9ers as my SB pick for the whole season. I may end up being totally wrong here-
I don’t think Jordan Love is a superhero like the media hypes him up to be. The 3 turnover game is just around the corner.
I hate Matt Lafleur. Again this guy gets a ton of praise. A lot of their recent collapses have been on him in my opinion. I’ve watched him very closely over the years. I could make a long list of all the things I think he’s horrible at.
The defense is a joke to me. At some point the fans and gamblers have to realize that the teams are what they have been. The Eagles were a mirage, Josh Allen is a turnover machine, the Cowboys can’t get it done in the playoffs, Flacco is a has been …I could go on and on. The Packers defense sucks. They sucked all year. Ranked 27th in defensive DVOA. They played well last week…still don’t care. 49ers should cut through this team like a hot knife.
Hopefully I’m not overreacting to last week but I love Tampa. I think they have a real shot to pull off the upset. I can’t trust Dan Campbell in a playoff game and I can’t trust Goff under pressure. Bottom line. I don’t necessarily trust baker mayfield either but I like the overall matchup. I remember you and I were talking a couple weeks ago and I said that I thought Tampa could be a nightmare matchup in the playoffs. If they played Dallas I would have been all over Tampa.
looking forward to seeing your plays this weekend. We both took a loss on Pittsburgh but other than that what are we 6,7-0 on common picks now?
I think you are right that TB would have been bad for DAL. But I think anyone they played in the 1st rd would have been caught slightly flat-footed. Everyone assumes just because they squeaked out of that division they are not good. Now I think teams have been put on notice about them. But maybe Mayfield will continue to surprise me.
I don’t think Jordan Love is a superhero like the media hypes him up to be. The 3 turnover game is just around the corner. SF may be just the team to make it happen. But I question if Purdy is a superhero like they hype him as well. I disagree a bit on GB defense down the stretch. But SF with those weapons can slice any defense up.
In BLT game, I think a lot of it comes down to how I feel LJ will do against a good defensive team in the playoffs AND how I think CJ will perform on the road in the worst place for a young QB to visit for a P/O game.
I think you are right that TB would have been bad for DAL. But I think anyone they played in the 1st rd would have been caught slightly flat-footed. Everyone assumes just because they squeaked out of that division they are not good. Now I think teams have been put on notice about them. But maybe Mayfield will continue to surprise me.
I don’t think Jordan Love is a superhero like the media hypes him up to be. The 3 turnover game is just around the corner. SF may be just the team to make it happen. But I question if Purdy is a superhero like they hype him as well. I disagree a bit on GB defense down the stretch. But SF with those weapons can slice any defense up.
In BLT game, I think a lot of it comes down to how I feel LJ will do against a good defensive team in the playoffs AND how I think CJ will perform on the road in the worst place for a young QB to visit for a P/O game.
I hate Matt Lafleur. Again this guy gets a ton of praise. A lot of their recent collapses have been on him in my opinion. I’ve watched him very closely over the years. I could make a long list of all the things I think he’s horrible at.
I did see this for what it is worth:
"LaFleur also continues to prove he is nobody’s underdog. He leads all active coaches with a 70% ATS mark as an underdog (19-8 all time)."
I hate Matt Lafleur. Again this guy gets a ton of praise. A lot of their recent collapses have been on him in my opinion. I’ve watched him very closely over the years. I could make a long list of all the things I think he’s horrible at.
I did see this for what it is worth:
"LaFleur also continues to prove he is nobody’s underdog. He leads all active coaches with a 70% ATS mark as an underdog (19-8 all time)."
@brn2loslive2win I hate Matt Lafleur. Again this guy gets a ton of praise. A lot of their recent collapses have been on him in my opinion. I’ve watched him very closely over the years. I could make a long list of all the things I think he’s horrible at. I did see this for what it is worth: "LaFleur also continues to prove he is nobody’s underdog. He leads all active coaches with a 70% ATS mark as an underdog (19-8 all time)."
classic situation of when the numbers don’t tell the story. A lot of his early success was because of Rodgers. Like I said I’ve watched Lafleurs career in GB very closely. My girlfriend is a diehard Packers fan and we don’t miss a single play, let alone an entire game in our house.
Like I said the list of horrible coaching decisions is long with Lafleur. I think I’ve said this a thousand times by now but his use of timeouts is inexcusable. I’ve seen quite a few packers games slip away because they couldn’t stop the clock at the end of the half or the fourth. Pay attention to this in the game this weekend. Don’t be surprised to see him use a timeout in the first 5 minutes of the game.
Another obvious example was the 2020 NFC title game. I believe it was vs Tampa that he elected to kick a field goal down by 8 points with less than 4 minutes left in the game. Only to give the ball back to Brady and never get it back. I mean this could literally go down as one of the most ridiculous coaching blunders of all time. Down by a touchdown so you kick a field goal…even though you still need a touchdown after? My God.
To me he’s another Mike McCarthy type. Good numbers, good record, complete idiot in the most important moments. I give him credit for this season, but he’s going to go head to head with one of the best coaches in the NFL this weekend. And I don’t think he gets over the hill this time either.
@brn2loslive2win I hate Matt Lafleur. Again this guy gets a ton of praise. A lot of their recent collapses have been on him in my opinion. I’ve watched him very closely over the years. I could make a long list of all the things I think he’s horrible at. I did see this for what it is worth: "LaFleur also continues to prove he is nobody’s underdog. He leads all active coaches with a 70% ATS mark as an underdog (19-8 all time)."
classic situation of when the numbers don’t tell the story. A lot of his early success was because of Rodgers. Like I said I’ve watched Lafleurs career in GB very closely. My girlfriend is a diehard Packers fan and we don’t miss a single play, let alone an entire game in our house.
Like I said the list of horrible coaching decisions is long with Lafleur. I think I’ve said this a thousand times by now but his use of timeouts is inexcusable. I’ve seen quite a few packers games slip away because they couldn’t stop the clock at the end of the half or the fourth. Pay attention to this in the game this weekend. Don’t be surprised to see him use a timeout in the first 5 minutes of the game.
Another obvious example was the 2020 NFC title game. I believe it was vs Tampa that he elected to kick a field goal down by 8 points with less than 4 minutes left in the game. Only to give the ball back to Brady and never get it back. I mean this could literally go down as one of the most ridiculous coaching blunders of all time. Down by a touchdown so you kick a field goal…even though you still need a touchdown after? My God.
To me he’s another Mike McCarthy type. Good numbers, good record, complete idiot in the most important moments. I give him credit for this season, but he’s going to go head to head with one of the best coaches in the NFL this weekend. And I don’t think he gets over the hill this time either.
True he had Rodgers early -- but maybe you can say he has Love now.
Yes, teams and coaches that waste timeouts is a HUGEEEEE pet peeve of mine.
I do not recall the exact game where he kicked the FG. But depending on time and situation, I sometimes am for it.
Of course it assumes you can get the ball back. But down 8 means you have to score 3 times to win, essentially AND stop the other team at least twice. A TD, which can get harder the closer you get to the EZ and wastes more time, then a 2 pt conv -- which is not a gimme, then score again in OT to win -- assuming you stop them again.
However, if you kick the FG fairly soon and feel you can stop them -- then the next TD will win it outright for you.
But I get your point.
I think guys that win --McCarthy and LaFleur -- are extra scrutinized in their losses because of the franchises they coach.
EVERY single coach makes decisions that can be second-guessed when they do not work out.
True he had Rodgers early -- but maybe you can say he has Love now.
Yes, teams and coaches that waste timeouts is a HUGEEEEE pet peeve of mine.
I do not recall the exact game where he kicked the FG. But depending on time and situation, I sometimes am for it.
Of course it assumes you can get the ball back. But down 8 means you have to score 3 times to win, essentially AND stop the other team at least twice. A TD, which can get harder the closer you get to the EZ and wastes more time, then a 2 pt conv -- which is not a gimme, then score again in OT to win -- assuming you stop them again.
However, if you kick the FG fairly soon and feel you can stop them -- then the next TD will win it outright for you.
But I get your point.
I think guys that win --McCarthy and LaFleur -- are extra scrutinized in their losses because of the franchises they coach.
EVERY single coach makes decisions that can be second-guessed when they do not work out.
My thoughts on the KC/Bills game is that it is one to stay away from. This is KC's first road playoff game (SB's are neutral) and they just haven't looked right all season. For the Bills, Allen throws WAY TOO MANY picks to back them. He's bound to have at least 1 usually. Think this is a game to just watch and enjoy.
My thoughts on the KC/Bills game is that it is one to stay away from. This is KC's first road playoff game (SB's are neutral) and they just haven't looked right all season. For the Bills, Allen throws WAY TOO MANY picks to back them. He's bound to have at least 1 usually. Think this is a game to just watch and enjoy.
Great insights, thank you for posting. My thoughts on the KC/Bills game is that it is one to stay away from. This is KC's first road playoff game (SB's are neutral) and they just haven't looked right all season. For the Bills, Allen throws WAY TOO MANY picks to back them. He's bound to have at least 1 usually. Think this is a game to just watch and enjoy.
This is realistically the smart way to look at it. As of right now it’s why I don’t have a bet on the game. First off, I don’t like the idea of giving ANY points to Mahomes. Secondly, Allen can lose the game for his team even if they play great, by throwing the dumb interceptions.
So the choices in front of you are bet against Mahomes as a dog (not the best feeling) or taking the chiefs in a road game/hostile environment with an offense that’s not necessarily going to be able to get going. Sounds like watching the game and eating something tasty might be the best option.
Great insights, thank you for posting. My thoughts on the KC/Bills game is that it is one to stay away from. This is KC's first road playoff game (SB's are neutral) and they just haven't looked right all season. For the Bills, Allen throws WAY TOO MANY picks to back them. He's bound to have at least 1 usually. Think this is a game to just watch and enjoy.
This is realistically the smart way to look at it. As of right now it’s why I don’t have a bet on the game. First off, I don’t like the idea of giving ANY points to Mahomes. Secondly, Allen can lose the game for his team even if they play great, by throwing the dumb interceptions.
So the choices in front of you are bet against Mahomes as a dog (not the best feeling) or taking the chiefs in a road game/hostile environment with an offense that’s not necessarily going to be able to get going. Sounds like watching the game and eating something tasty might be the best option.
I just looked up the game I was talking about to put it in a better perspective for you.
There was four minutes and 42 seconds left on the clock after Tampa Bay kicked a field goal to take an eight point lead. Green Bay gets the ball back and drives into Tampa Bay territory, but ends up kicking a field goal with 2:05 on the play clock!!!
down by eight points with just over two minutes to play. Matt LaFleur elects to kick a field goal! I guess the thought process was that they would stop Tampa Bay, get the ball back, and score a game-winning touchdown. To me and many others this just didn’t make any sense.
I just looked up the game I was talking about to put it in a better perspective for you.
There was four minutes and 42 seconds left on the clock after Tampa Bay kicked a field goal to take an eight point lead. Green Bay gets the ball back and drives into Tampa Bay territory, but ends up kicking a field goal with 2:05 on the play clock!!!
down by eight points with just over two minutes to play. Matt LaFleur elects to kick a field goal! I guess the thought process was that they would stop Tampa Bay, get the ball back, and score a game-winning touchdown. To me and many others this just didn’t make any sense.
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