Miami +17
New England reached the sky last week as they defeated another 5-0 team, the only team they faced so far this season that seemed to be able to beat them. They CAN NOT play any better this season. They CAN NOT be as motivated as they were last week, when they face the lowly Dolphins on Sunday. As a matter of fact, they CAN NOT be motivated at all until they face the Colts. Here is something very interesting about the Pats this season. This covering machine actually started its engins in week 3 of pre-season (that's when the good teams usually get serious) and since then they won and covered 8 straight games. Vegas tried to follow this machine, but without any succes. The Patriots lines at home started at -3 in week 4 of preseason vs the Giants and went up to -3.5 vs SD, -16.5 vs Buffalo and -17 vs Cleveland. The same thing happened in their road games. In week 3 of pre-season they were 1 pt dog at Carolina and then they opened the regular season as 6 pts favs at Jets, -7.5 favs at Cleveland and -5.5 @ Dallas which is a lot higher that -7.5 at Cincy or -6 @ Jets considering the strength of those opponents. Now they are 17 pts favorite against one of only two remaining winless teams. The public is so high on NE now that there would be at least 50% of action on them even if they were laying 21 in this spot. But, the game stil has to be played on the field and don't forget that this is the NFL, where anyone can win on any given Sunday. While NE look to be better and better every week, the stats tell me a different story. This is a team that is on decline as evidenced by this: In week 2 of pre-season, their Total YPP ratio was at -0.7 and then started improving game after game. It was 0.4 in W3 PS, 0.7 in W4 PS, 2.1 in W1, 2.4 in W2, 3.2 in W3. In week 4, it started going down (0.5 vs Cincy, 0.4 vs Cleveland) and reached the negative again at -0.5 at Dallas last week. This confirms my theory that this GREAT team can not get any better or any more motived until they face a real threat, and that threat is the Colts. They should beat Miami with ease, but they will not cover this spread. By the way, this Miami team has been able to keep it close in every game, despite their serious lack of talent. They will keep it much closer than expected this week as well.
Atlanta +9
Here we have a team that looked very bad on national TV last week, facing a team that was supposed to be GREAT this season following their cinderella story last year. The public saw how bad these Falcons are and they won't no action on them this week. That is the part of this equation that I fully understand. However, once again, don't forget that old NFL saying...no team is as bad as it looked last week...This Atlanta team stil average more rushing yards than NO and J.Harrington stil has a much better QB rating than D.Brees. They covered half of their spreads this season and NO covered their first last week. The part of this equation that I do not agree with here is the 'the Saints are back' comments that I see all over the forums. They are back ? I don't think so. One well played game (did they really play well ? - explanation will follow) doesn't make this team a good one yet. They did improve from week 1 to week 3 and that was this team's maximum. The following week they repeated their YPP performance from week 3 and then last week their YPP ratio was at -1.6 !!! They won that game without really outplaying the Seahawks. Seattle was clearly stil down after that ugly loss to the Steelers and they did not take the Saints seriously. Well, the fact is, the Saints are not a good team, and they are not getting better either, so there is no reason for this team to be laying this many points against anyone in this league right now, especially a team that owns A 13-2 ats record as underdog at New Orleans.
San Francisco +9
The Giants are on a 4 game winning/covering streak and they were seen by the national audience in an impressive MNF win last week. That win alone is enough for many casual bettors to put their money on NYG this week. Especially against a 2-3 SF team that lost 3 straight. However, the four game winning streak by the Giants look a lot less impressive when I look deeper into their schedule. That winning streak started in a 2nd half comeback against an overrated Washington team and they followed with a win over the overrated Eagles who played without Westbrook in New York, a horrible Jets team that would allow 21+ to good college teams and a inconsistent 1-4 Atlanta team. The Giants YPP ratio improved every week since their loss to Dallas in week 1, and with a MNF win that gave them recognition on national TV, they are due for a letdown against a well rested SF team that actually started to improve before they bye week. This SF team was supposed to be a playoff caliber team this season, but after a 2-0 start they lost three straight, all three against possible playoffs teams. However, with a win here, they would stay in the hunt for the divisional crown with the average Seattle team and Arizona missing top 2 quarterbacks. Huge game for SF here and lots of time to prepare for it. I know that these WC teams struggle in early east coast games but since this is their second trip to the East Coast this season, and since they are comming off bye this week, I think that it will not affect them that much in this game.
Miami +17
New England reached the sky last week as they defeated another 5-0 team, the only team they faced so far this season that seemed to be able to beat them. They CAN NOT play any better this season. They CAN NOT be as motivated as they were last week, when they face the lowly Dolphins on Sunday. As a matter of fact, they CAN NOT be motivated at all until they face the Colts. Here is something very interesting about the Pats this season. This covering machine actually started its engins in week 3 of pre-season (that's when the good teams usually get serious) and since then they won and covered 8 straight games. Vegas tried to follow this machine, but without any succes. The Patriots lines at home started at -3 in week 4 of preseason vs the Giants and went up to -3.5 vs SD, -16.5 vs Buffalo and -17 vs Cleveland. The same thing happened in their road games. In week 3 of pre-season they were 1 pt dog at Carolina and then they opened the regular season as 6 pts favs at Jets, -7.5 favs at Cleveland and -5.5 @ Dallas which is a lot higher that -7.5 at Cincy or -6 @ Jets considering the strength of those opponents. Now they are 17 pts favorite against one of only two remaining winless teams. The public is so high on NE now that there would be at least 50% of action on them even if they were laying 21 in this spot. But, the game stil has to be played on the field and don't forget that this is the NFL, where anyone can win on any given Sunday. While NE look to be better and better every week, the stats tell me a different story. This is a team that is on decline as evidenced by this: In week 2 of pre-season, their Total YPP ratio was at -0.7 and then started improving game after game. It was 0.4 in W3 PS, 0.7 in W4 PS, 2.1 in W1, 2.4 in W2, 3.2 in W3. In week 4, it started going down (0.5 vs Cincy, 0.4 vs Cleveland) and reached the negative again at -0.5 at Dallas last week. This confirms my theory that this GREAT team can not get any better or any more motived until they face a real threat, and that threat is the Colts. They should beat Miami with ease, but they will not cover this spread. By the way, this Miami team has been able to keep it close in every game, despite their serious lack of talent. They will keep it much closer than expected this week as well.
Atlanta +9
Here we have a team that looked very bad on national TV last week, facing a team that was supposed to be GREAT this season following their cinderella story last year. The public saw how bad these Falcons are and they won't no action on them this week. That is the part of this equation that I fully understand. However, once again, don't forget that old NFL saying...no team is as bad as it looked last week...This Atlanta team stil average more rushing yards than NO and J.Harrington stil has a much better QB rating than D.Brees. They covered half of their spreads this season and NO covered their first last week. The part of this equation that I do not agree with here is the 'the Saints are back' comments that I see all over the forums. They are back ? I don't think so. One well played game (did they really play well ? - explanation will follow) doesn't make this team a good one yet. They did improve from week 1 to week 3 and that was this team's maximum. The following week they repeated their YPP performance from week 3 and then last week their YPP ratio was at -1.6 !!! They won that game without really outplaying the Seahawks. Seattle was clearly stil down after that ugly loss to the Steelers and they did not take the Saints seriously. Well, the fact is, the Saints are not a good team, and they are not getting better either, so there is no reason for this team to be laying this many points against anyone in this league right now, especially a team that owns A 13-2 ats record as underdog at New Orleans.
San Francisco +9
The Giants are on a 4 game winning/covering streak and they were seen by the national audience in an impressive MNF win last week. That win alone is enough for many casual bettors to put their money on NYG this week. Especially against a 2-3 SF team that lost 3 straight. However, the four game winning streak by the Giants look a lot less impressive when I look deeper into their schedule. That winning streak started in a 2nd half comeback against an overrated Washington team and they followed with a win over the overrated Eagles who played without Westbrook in New York, a horrible Jets team that would allow 21+ to good college teams and a inconsistent 1-4 Atlanta team. The Giants YPP ratio improved every week since their loss to Dallas in week 1, and with a MNF win that gave them recognition on national TV, they are due for a letdown against a well rested SF team that actually started to improve before they bye week. This SF team was supposed to be a playoff caliber team this season, but after a 2-0 start they lost three straight, all three against possible playoffs teams. However, with a win here, they would stay in the hunt for the divisional crown with the average Seattle team and Arizona missing top 2 quarterbacks. Huge game for SF here and lots of time to prepare for it. I know that these WC teams struggle in early east coast games but since this is their second trip to the East Coast this season, and since they are comming off bye this week, I think that it will not affect them that much in this game.
Buffalo +3
The Ravens are 4-1 in last 5 games but their YPP ratio was negative in all 5 games. They are not as good as their record indicates. Not even close. Their TD/drive ratio as very bad and they can't keep winning without scoring TD's. There is a reason why this team can't cover the spread against any half-decent squad. They can not score ! Including the pre season games, the Ravens are 2-8 ATS. On the road, they are 0-5 ATS. Last week, STL commited 6 turnovers but what the Ravens did with all those possessions ? Field goal, after field goal, after field goal. Buffalo kept it close in every home game so far this season thanks to their defense and special units and they will do it again this week. They are not a mistake prone team (compared to Baltimore) and with an extra week to prepare, they will compete. Baltimore has one of the worst TD/drive ratio in the league and usually that spells trouble when you are on the road. Bottom 16 teams in this statistical category are 4-27-3 ATS this season when favored, and 0-10 ATS when favored on the road. And Baltimore IS favored on the road ! Buffalo is on that list as well, but they are not favored and they are at home. Baltimore makes over 10 mistakes per game (missed field goals, penalties and turnovers) and that again is in bottom 10 in the league. Once again, that spells trouble when you are on the road. These teams are 8-21 ATS so far this season when favored and 3-10 whn favored on the road. What a casual bettor will look at in this matchup is Baltimore's 4 wins in last 5 games and Buffalo's meltdown on MNF two weeks ago. How missleading.This game will be a low scoring affaire with the winner being decided by a last sec field goal.
Jacksonville +3
Jacksonville is the best team in the nation that NO ONE is talking about. The only talk about this team recently was when they released Leftwich. And they released him with a reason. Garrard is the type of QB that will not have overwhelming stats, but will win you the games. Something like Brady when he had limited offensive firepower around him. Garrard's QB rating is just as good as Manning's and week after week, the support he is getting on the ground is more and more impressive. Jacksonville's rushing YPP ratio improved ever week, and came a long way from -1.8 in week 1, to +6.8 last week. That is huge ! And that running game killed Indy last time these two teams met. Last season, Jacksonville outrushed the Colts 566-97 ! And this season, this Jacksonville ground game is even better. They also have the second best defense in the NFL and a QB that is perfect 2-0 ATS career vs the Colts. The Colts continue to be a good road fade going 0-7 ATS in last 7 regular season games as road favs and 0-4 ATS in four road games this season including the exibition games. In my previous writeup I mentioned that bad TD/drive ratio teams struggle when favored. Well, the opposite is true for the good TD/drive teams when underdogs. Top 15 teams in this statistical category are 16-6-4 ATS this season as underdogs, and 5-1 as home dogs. Jacksonville is a home dog this week ! So, who do you think will cover this spread ? The defending champs that is stil the #1 team in the nation (until someone actually beats them) or this Jacksonville team that no one talks about ? If your anser is 'Colts' then you can consider yourself a square.
Buffalo +3
The Ravens are 4-1 in last 5 games but their YPP ratio was negative in all 5 games. They are not as good as their record indicates. Not even close. Their TD/drive ratio as very bad and they can't keep winning without scoring TD's. There is a reason why this team can't cover the spread against any half-decent squad. They can not score ! Including the pre season games, the Ravens are 2-8 ATS. On the road, they are 0-5 ATS. Last week, STL commited 6 turnovers but what the Ravens did with all those possessions ? Field goal, after field goal, after field goal. Buffalo kept it close in every home game so far this season thanks to their defense and special units and they will do it again this week. They are not a mistake prone team (compared to Baltimore) and with an extra week to prepare, they will compete. Baltimore has one of the worst TD/drive ratio in the league and usually that spells trouble when you are on the road. Bottom 16 teams in this statistical category are 4-27-3 ATS this season when favored, and 0-10 ATS when favored on the road. And Baltimore IS favored on the road ! Buffalo is on that list as well, but they are not favored and they are at home. Baltimore makes over 10 mistakes per game (missed field goals, penalties and turnovers) and that again is in bottom 10 in the league. Once again, that spells trouble when you are on the road. These teams are 8-21 ATS so far this season when favored and 3-10 whn favored on the road. What a casual bettor will look at in this matchup is Baltimore's 4 wins in last 5 games and Buffalo's meltdown on MNF two weeks ago. How missleading.This game will be a low scoring affaire with the winner being decided by a last sec field goal.
Jacksonville +3
Jacksonville is the best team in the nation that NO ONE is talking about. The only talk about this team recently was when they released Leftwich. And they released him with a reason. Garrard is the type of QB that will not have overwhelming stats, but will win you the games. Something like Brady when he had limited offensive firepower around him. Garrard's QB rating is just as good as Manning's and week after week, the support he is getting on the ground is more and more impressive. Jacksonville's rushing YPP ratio improved ever week, and came a long way from -1.8 in week 1, to +6.8 last week. That is huge ! And that running game killed Indy last time these two teams met. Last season, Jacksonville outrushed the Colts 566-97 ! And this season, this Jacksonville ground game is even better. They also have the second best defense in the NFL and a QB that is perfect 2-0 ATS career vs the Colts. The Colts continue to be a good road fade going 0-7 ATS in last 7 regular season games as road favs and 0-4 ATS in four road games this season including the exibition games. In my previous writeup I mentioned that bad TD/drive ratio teams struggle when favored. Well, the opposite is true for the good TD/drive teams when underdogs. Top 15 teams in this statistical category are 16-6-4 ATS this season as underdogs, and 5-1 as home dogs. Jacksonville is a home dog this week ! So, who do you think will cover this spread ? The defending champs that is stil the #1 team in the nation (until someone actually beats them) or this Jacksonville team that no one talks about ? If your anser is 'Colts' then you can consider yourself a square.
Nice write-ups but I'd be careful with all of them - especially the Colts & Pats. Both of these clubs are better than last year & Pats didn't just reach the sky, they live in it. That game could get ugly in a hurry. Mia has lost to Dal by 17, Oak by 18 & Cleve by 10 & them covering is a 50/50 proposition IMO.
I like Jax & their D and running game (as well as Garrard who fits their ball control offense perfectly & has no INT's this year), but they haven't beaten a team with a winning record and I've got to like Manning & the Colts comin off the bye & gettin Sanders, Harrison & Addai back as well as the 2 wks of preparation for Manning going into a big Mon nite game that they know is huge & won't be easy.
Not playin any of these ATS, but GL!||clover.gif' border=0>
Nice write-ups but I'd be careful with all of them - especially the Colts & Pats. Both of these clubs are better than last year & Pats didn't just reach the sky, they live in it. That game could get ugly in a hurry. Mia has lost to Dal by 17, Oak by 18 & Cleve by 10 & them covering is a 50/50 proposition IMO.
I like Jax & their D and running game (as well as Garrard who fits their ball control offense perfectly & has no INT's this year), but they haven't beaten a team with a winning record and I've got to like Manning & the Colts comin off the bye & gettin Sanders, Harrison & Addai back as well as the 2 wks of preparation for Manning going into a big Mon nite game that they know is huge & won't be easy.
Not playin any of these ATS, but GL!||clover.gif' border=0>
hey wussup man,I don't know why I like your NFL and CFL picks, it looks right to me. We on the boat now! GL Buddy and hope you don't get suspend in penalty boxx
hey wussup man,I don't know why I like your NFL and CFL picks, it looks right to me. We on the boat now! GL Buddy and hope you don't get suspend in penalty boxx
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