4 day commitment to following my NCAAFB & NFL plays (Nov
24 – Nov 27) and increasing your total bankroll by a minimum of 41.67%. Here is the link to the original
promise/post: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101191699
Write up for SF @
BALT:
SF @ Baltimore:
·
San franciso is traveling to Baltimore on a
short week, which will come into play. Bell
to bell; by the time SF finished beating up on the AZ Cardianls, they had just
roughly about 96 hours to pack for, get to the airport, fly 7+ hours, land,
transit to the hotel, unpack, and practice/prepare. Normally West to East coast trips favor the
East coast team ATS, but on a short week for a team over achieving to play on a
national stage; this will be a major factor. This will negate 1 full day of practice,
leaving a max of 3, but more probable 2 practice days for this game. I
would go so far as to equate that fact alone as a 6 pt swing.
·
Next off….Frank Gore ran 24 times for 88 yards
on Sunday, then instead of taking ice baths, and getting worked on the majority
of the time he is subject to the above travel woes. What is the option? 1) not get him the work with his trainers
(knees) 2) get him in the training room and let him skip 1 or both
practices? No way is Gore as ready as he
normally would be. Now, Gore at less
than his best vs the 5th ranked run D of the bmore ravens…. I would
equate this to a minimum of 2.5 pt swing (my Marine Corps math has the running
total @ 8.5 pts swing thus far.
·
Now… the true opportunity in this game is, as
always, the public perception which is always dictated by the media (ESPN
ect). The SF 49ers have definitely
impressed me this season, and they have gotten to a 9-1 start by virtue of
great coaching, sound fundamentals, and as much passion as any team in the
league…kudo’s to you Mr. Harbaugh!....but let’s look at what they really
accomplished…. (I will use this weeks Foxsports.com power ranking for
this) teams SF beat are currently ranked
at: Seattle 20th (won by 16)….Dallas 10th
(this is their 1 loss)…..Cincy 13th
(won by 5pts)…..Philly 17th won by 1…….TB 23rd won by 45…….Detroit
9 won by 6…..Cleveland 31st won by 10…..Washington 24th
won by 8…. NYG 14th won by 7……and AZ 27th…won by 16. They played 2 top 10 teams; lost one, and won
the other by 6. Let’s face it… the media
is controlling this line to our favor, and our pockets.
·
SF scheme has been brilliant to this point! Alex Smith was a QB that no self respecting
football fan would have given a chance to be a starter for much longer just
last season. Harbaugh has put him into
situations that he can avoid making those big mistakes that he made last
season. Here is the problem…the leagues
10 ranked rusher (Frank Gore) has faced performed incredibly vs low ranked rush
D’s and poorly vs strong ranked rush D’s….. rush defenses this season (Seattle 8th
he gained only 2.6 ypc), Dallas 11th (he gained 2.35 ypc), Cincy 3rd
(he gained 2.47 ypc), Philly 14th (he gained 8.4 ypc), TB 26th
(he gained 6.25), Detroit 27th (he gained 9.4 ypc), ….you are
getting the point here I am sure…. Gore will be lucky to average a fraction
over 2 ypc vs the best run D he/they have faced this season.