N.Y. Jets at San Diego
We hear a lot about New York’s No. 1 defense. While you have to respect what Rex Ryan has done since arriving as the head man, this will be a better barometer of how far his squad has come. Much of New York’s noticeable defensive stats were accumulated in the second half of the season. In that latter stage, the Jets faced the futile Bills, Bucs, Falcons and Panthers under Delhomme and his four interceptions before completing the season against two teams that rolled over. New York was impressive in its wild card win last week against Cincinnati. QB Mark Sanchez was efficient and went into the ‘manage the game’ mode quite well. This will be different. This is not the Bengals. This opponent is not lying down. The Jets will be asked to travel across the country to face the league’s hottest team. The Chargers have won 11 straight and are considered by many to be the league’s best team. Philip Rivers is one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks, having thrown for more than 4200 yards and 28 touchdowns. Rivers is well aware of the Jets defensive prowess but despite all of its success this year, New York does not have a impact end rusher to pressure San Diego’s leader. Give Rivers time and he’ll burn you. Give the Chargers the lead against a novice quarterback on the road and you have to like your chances. The Jets have been great defensively over the past couple of months, but the notion that they can be the first team to hold the Chargers under 20 points is a little far-fetched. During their 6-1 run, the Jets have faced only one elite- level offense, Indianapolis, and the Colts removed their key offensive starters in the third quarter of that game. That's not to say Gang Green will get gutted here, just that San Diego should be able to move the ball with relative frequency. In that regard, it's up to the Jets attack to keep things interesting by scoring some points of its own, and while the New York running game should have some positive moments against an average Chargers defense, I’m willing to bet that Sanchez and company will make one too many mistakes to land the Jets in the AFC Championship. The Chargers enter as the league's hottest team with 11 straight wins while finishing the season on a 6-2-1 ATS run. Jets CB Revis shutdown Cincy's one receiving weapon but with SD able to line up WR Jackson (1167, 17.2), TE Gates (1157, 14.6) and WR Floyd (776, 17.2) the Chargers can stretch the field which Cincy couldn't. The Chargers experienced defense will not be as aggressive as the Bengals who were destroyed by the Jets play action. The Chargers are on a 5-1 ATS run in the playoffs and should get another cover here. The San Diego offense has proven to be unstoppable this season with QB Phillip Rivers under center. Rivers threw for 4,254 yards with 28 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions this season. Those are very solid numbers especially if you consider the lack of run game throughout the year meaning defenses knew the pass was coming but still could not stop it. The reason it’s hard to stop the Chargers passing attack outside of Rivers dangerous accuracy lies in the receivers. WR Vincent Jackson and tight end Antonio Gates possibly the most lethal duo combination in any passing game. The two have combined for 2,300 plus yards and 17 touchdowns. Jackson is a big wide receiver that has dominated cornerback this year and Gates provides excellent support underneath. Those combinations in the passing game have been deadly, but now they must get the momentum rolling after a week off. The Jets secondary may not have the height advantage to take the ball away from Jackson if he gets a few throws down the field. Jackson single handedly beat the Cowboys, who also have a disadvantage in size in their secondary, late in the regular season and the Jets can not afford to yield any similar results. I do not think the Jets running game can absolutely control the game start to finish. New York allowed Bengals RB Cedric Benson to pile up 169 rushing yards, including a 47-yard TD run last week. In their regular-season finale two weeks ago, the Bolts went with reserves most of the way, but they put up 10 fourth-quarter points to pull out a 23-20 victory and get the push as a three-point home chalk. San Diego has scored 20 points or more in every game during their streak, with six games of 30 or more points, including two in the 40s. The SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes, and six of those games were decided by double digits. Sanchez had 12 TDs passes, but his 20 INTs were second-most in the league, and he also fumbled 10 times, losing three. San Diego put up 360.1 ypg (10th) and 28.4 ppg (fourth) in the regular season, mostly on the arm of Philip Rivers, who threw for 4,254 yards (eighth) and 28 TDs (tied for sixth), with just nine INTs. WR Vincent Jackson (68 catches, 1,167 yards, 9 TDs, 17.2 ypc) was the top gainer, though TE Antonio Gates (79 catches, 1,157 yards, 8 TDs, 14.6 ypc) was close behind. The Chargers also sport several positive ATS trends, including 6-2-1 overall, 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 in the postseason, 4-1 against winning teams, 4-1-1 in January and 6-2-1 following a SU win. In addition, coach Norv Turner is 6-1 ATS in the playoffs, including 3-0 SU and ATS at home.
I also like San Diego ATS for the first half of the game and the "OVER" for the whole game. San Diego has more momentum than any team in the NFL right now. And I think that they come out like gangbusters and jump all over the rookie quarterback for the Jets. They were up four points at halftime last year against the Colts when they played at home. I think that they will be up at least a touchdown at the break this year. I think that this Chargers team will be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air and I have the ‘over’ in this game as a result. The Jets have played well over the last three weeks but they have only played the Bengals and the Colts while they were resting their starters. I am still not completely sold on this team and I think that they get behind early in this one. San Diego and quarterback Philip Rivers, and his outstanding receiving corps, will put the Chargers on the lead and then keep the pedal to the metal and make the Jets rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez beat them. The Chargers come into this game standing 11-0 in their last 11 games and in those wins have certainly faced running games far more potent than that of the Jets. Passing trumps running in this one. Four of the last five meetings with these teams have gone ‘over’ and the Jets are averaging 30 points per game over their last three games. The over for New York is on runs of 5-0 in January, 3-0-1 against winning teams, 6-1-1 within the AFC and 5-2-2 with the Jets a road pup. Likewise, the over for San Diego is on tears of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a chalk) and 4-0 against the AFC, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings.
6* San Diego Chargers -7
3* San Diego Chargers -4½ First Half
2* NY Jets/SD Chargers OVER 42 (hook)
1* 2 Team, 6 Point Teaser: SD -1, Over 36½