Hello
This is my first year posting on the covers forum. I have greatly appreciated using covers. I started betting online in 1999 and found covers a few months after that period. It has been a great site for analyzing data. I like having Rotoworld available to me for it has great information and easy to browse.
I have posted on many forums in the past and have on two different youtube channels back during the 2007 & 2011 seasons. 2011 was an interesting year where I hit 70% winners the first half of the season posting 5-7 picks a week. The second half had about 35% winners and I predicted via youtube that after i started a week 0-1 that bad times might be coming. Sure enough on that Sunday I bombed the board and could never recover from that point in that season. I have bet on way too many games in my life to not understand how the patterns of big up/down swings work. My best posting was in 2000 where I posted a record of 63-37-1 on bigguy. My best season period was January to end of NHL season of 1997 where I dominated in picking games to end in a tie (occurred 2 in 17 in those days) getting odds at around +525 on average. I hit these ties aprx 40% of the time. I played dogs to win or -0.5 with average prices of +125 and won them over 60% of the time. This meant my 3 game parlays hit quite a few times. I will be posting NHL picks here most likely, but will not start until December.
My plan for 2013 is to post my picks on three categories and two methods. The second method is posting my upcoming week lines around 7-8pm EST Sunday nights. Then on Saturday's I will post my top two picks with full analysis. Saturday night I will post my NQW - Not Quite Worth (of the top two) and finalize it with opinion small positive value in my research) on Sunday morning, which will also include changes or updates based on line movements and/or game particular changes. With weather, I should have a good idea by Saturday what Sunday's weather will bring.
Without further a due, Week ones top two picks.
TEN +7 At PIT
POSITIONAL MATCHUPS:
QB - Pittsburgh is ahead, but not by large degrees. Locker is in a wildcard third year and if they can get that pistol working with Johnson, this could be closer to even.
RB - Tennessee is ahead small. Only because of Johnson's trend to suck early in the season and kick ass in the later end. Pittsburgh has a really bad running game in my views and this could be exploited Sunday.
WR/TE - Tennessee I have small with Kenny Britt in the lineup and the loss to Wallace. I like Britt over Brown in Pit and I think Sanders and Washington match-up is fairly even. At TE I have Walker (TEN) as a better player than Paulson (PIT)
OL - Will need to watch these guys more before I can talk about the OL. However it seems Pittsburgh has an edge here. That Pouncey kid is pretty good at center.
DL - Decent advantage for Tennessee. They have a better than average front four and the 3-4 Steelers front has a below average line and the loss of Harrison maybe present here.
LB - Even. Both teams have a great presence as the Titans bring three guys in their 2nd/3rd seasons and a lot of major potential for all three starters. Steelers have a veteran group that is solid and one player showing regression last year.
DB - Even. Ike Taylor showing regression with Troy P. with a very decent set of players in Tennessee.
Final analysis - I see these teams very evenly matched this year and am going on bias that Pittsburgh is a team that will be in decline this year. I think this spread should be -3Pit and find great value in seven points.
NYG/DAL under 49.5
Try to get 49.5, not 49. 49 is exactly seven touchdowns and an odd number score (Most games end with an odd number on the last digit of the total).
I am sold on this defense for the Cowboys with the Monte Kiffin tenure in place. This guy was the DC for the Bucs from 96-2008 as part of that awesome defense that destroyed the Raiders in the superbowl. I seen signs of this right from the first preseason game as well. I think there is a good chance that many games go under this season and against the NY Giants they are up against a team that is good, but does not blow you away with sheer dominance.
Be back tonight with NQW picks.