Tonight is the biggest total mismatch I have seen all year based on the situation. This game has all the looks of one thing, but will play out the exact opposite.
The total on tonight's game has hit 52.0 and is now a terrific opportunity to play the under. Quite frankly I would have still played it under at 49.5 had the line not moved, but I'll take the extra field goal in a swirling wind stadium.
Here is why the under will cash, and I have looked around the board here and haven't seen this point hammered in yet (hence my post.)
A quick look at last week's Eagles game against Chicago reeked of a scheduler's trap. The birds were coming off a gauntlet schedueld. (1) prime time home win vs. Peyton Manning & the Colts, followed by (2) prime time Monday Night win versus McNabb against divisional foe Washington, topped off with (3) Prime time home win vs. their biggest divisional rival of late in the. New York Giants. Then, off these 3 games had to go on the road off a Sunday night short week to face a Bears team waiting in the wings, who subsequently ambushed the Eagles.
Can you blame the Eagles? In this NFL, to run that type of schedule and then drop a road game? Not too surprising, it shouldn't have been.
Anyway, last extend the thought process from my previous paragraphs. Tonight, the Eagles will continue their extraordinary battle against the calendar off basically a 3 day week.
Figure after the 4PM Bears game, the eagles got done with the media by 9 or so went to the airport and probably didn't land i Philly until around 12am EST. Monday was an off (heal the wounds day) leaving only Tues and Wed to prepare for the out of conference Texans. How can an NFL team heal and prepare a game plan in 2 days of practice? Where is time for film? Where is time for meetings and strategy?....There is none. The total keeps climbing. It's going to be vanilla all the way, there wasn't enough time to prepare anything else.
Here is the capper....oh, btw...the Eagles have the Cowboys up next week. So if there is any goodies in the playbook, count on the Eagles saving that for Dallas (not tonight.)
Banged Up Players + No Film + No meetings + Divisional Rival next week = No Frills Offense (ie, see the pre-season).
The Texans, will be experiencing the short week as well. all this talk bout how bad their defense is...but my stats show they shut out the Titans 5 days ago. Although I am not a huge believer in temperatures having a drastic result in final scores, I do believe in the whole indoor vs. outdoor factor as it deals with changing sideline coaching decisions. The Texans are more the capable in the running game averaging over 130 a game. Also note Matt Schaub will be playing hurt and his favorite target Owen Daniels has been officially rule out.
By game time tonight the temperature will be around 35 and though the NWS shows only 6 mph winds, the stadium is located by the river on the low land. So count on the prevailing wind (which swirls in the stadium bowl) to be a factor in the passing game and kicking game.
I know the media hype, and obviously (based on the line moves) that everyone loves the over. Personally, I just don't see anyway it gets there.
Tonight look for one of those games where the clock bleeds away, and before you know it, the game is at half time 3-0. Both teams will be happy not to get hurt and move on with a win minus the style points.
Tonight is the biggest total mismatch I have seen all year based on the situation. This game has all the looks of one thing, but will play out the exact opposite.
The total on tonight's game has hit 52.0 and is now a terrific opportunity to play the under. Quite frankly I would have still played it under at 49.5 had the line not moved, but I'll take the extra field goal in a swirling wind stadium.
Here is why the under will cash, and I have looked around the board here and haven't seen this point hammered in yet (hence my post.)
A quick look at last week's Eagles game against Chicago reeked of a scheduler's trap. The birds were coming off a gauntlet schedueld. (1) prime time home win vs. Peyton Manning & the Colts, followed by (2) prime time Monday Night win versus McNabb against divisional foe Washington, topped off with (3) Prime time home win vs. their biggest divisional rival of late in the. New York Giants. Then, off these 3 games had to go on the road off a Sunday night short week to face a Bears team waiting in the wings, who subsequently ambushed the Eagles.
Can you blame the Eagles? In this NFL, to run that type of schedule and then drop a road game? Not too surprising, it shouldn't have been.
Anyway, last extend the thought process from my previous paragraphs. Tonight, the Eagles will continue their extraordinary battle against the calendar off basically a 3 day week.
Figure after the 4PM Bears game, the eagles got done with the media by 9 or so went to the airport and probably didn't land i Philly until around 12am EST. Monday was an off (heal the wounds day) leaving only Tues and Wed to prepare for the out of conference Texans. How can an NFL team heal and prepare a game plan in 2 days of practice? Where is time for film? Where is time for meetings and strategy?....There is none. The total keeps climbing. It's going to be vanilla all the way, there wasn't enough time to prepare anything else.
Here is the capper....oh, btw...the Eagles have the Cowboys up next week. So if there is any goodies in the playbook, count on the Eagles saving that for Dallas (not tonight.)
Banged Up Players + No Film + No meetings + Divisional Rival next week = No Frills Offense (ie, see the pre-season).
The Texans, will be experiencing the short week as well. all this talk bout how bad their defense is...but my stats show they shut out the Titans 5 days ago. Although I am not a huge believer in temperatures having a drastic result in final scores, I do believe in the whole indoor vs. outdoor factor as it deals with changing sideline coaching decisions. The Texans are more the capable in the running game averaging over 130 a game. Also note Matt Schaub will be playing hurt and his favorite target Owen Daniels has been officially rule out.
By game time tonight the temperature will be around 35 and though the NWS shows only 6 mph winds, the stadium is located by the river on the low land. So count on the prevailing wind (which swirls in the stadium bowl) to be a factor in the passing game and kicking game.
I know the media hype, and obviously (based on the line moves) that everyone loves the over. Personally, I just don't see anyway it gets there.
Tonight look for one of those games where the clock bleeds away, and before you know it, the game is at half time 3-0. Both teams will be happy not to get hurt and move on with a win minus the style points.
Cmon man. 3-0 at half???? Do you take equity line? I will put my $158K on it that Eagle will be more than 16 at halftime. That's the best bet on today's board!!!! Eagle team over at halftime!
Quote Originally Posted by m15525:
Tonight is the biggest total mismatch I have seen all year based on the situation. This game has all the looks of one thing, but will play out the exact opposite.
The total on tonight's game has hit 52.0 and is now a terrific opportunity to play the under. Quite frankly I would have still played it under at 49.5 had the line not moved, but I'll take the extra field goal in a swirling wind stadium.
Here is why the under will cash, and I have looked around the board here and haven't seen this point hammered in yet (hence my post.)
A quick look at last week's Eagles game against Chicago reeked of a scheduler's trap. The birds were coming off a gauntlet schedueld. (1) prime time home win vs. Peyton Manning & the Colts, followed by (2) prime time Monday Night win versus McNabb against divisional foe Washington, topped off with (3) Prime time home win vs. their biggest divisional rival of late in the. New York Giants. Then, off these 3 games had to go on the road off a Sunday night short week to face a Bears team waiting in the wings, who subsequently ambushed the Eagles.
Can you blame the Eagles? In this NFL, to run that type of schedule and then drop a road game? Not too surprising, it shouldn't have been.
Anyway, last extend the thought process from my previous paragraphs. Tonight, the Eagles will continue their extraordinary battle against the calendar off basically a 3 day week.
Figure after the 4PM Bears game, the eagles got done with the media by 9 or so went to the airport and probably didn't land i Philly until around 12am EST. Monday was an off (heal the wounds day) leaving only Tues and Wed to prepare for the out of conference Texans. How can an NFL team heal and prepare a game plan in 2 days of practice? Where is time for film? Where is time for meetings and strategy?....There is none. The total keeps climbing. It's going to be vanilla all the way, there wasn't enough time to prepare anything else.
Here is the capper....oh, btw...the Eagles have the Cowboys up next week. So if there is any goodies in the playbook, count on the Eagles saving that for Dallas (not tonight.)
Banged Up Players + No Film + No meetings + Divisional Rival next week = No Frills Offense (ie, see the pre-season).
The Texans, will be experiencing the short week as well. all this talk bout how bad their defense is...but my stats show they shut out the Titans 5 days ago. Although I am not a huge believer in temperatures having a drastic result in final scores, I do believe in the whole indoor vs. outdoor factor as it deals with changing sideline coaching decisions. The Texans are more the capable in the running game averaging over 130 a game. Also note Matt Schaub will be playing hurt and his favorite target Owen Daniels has been officially rule out.
By game time tonight the temperature will be around 35 and though the NWS shows only 6 mph winds, the stadium is located by the river on the low land. So count on the prevailing wind (which swirls in the stadium bowl) to be a factor in the passing game and kicking game.
I know the media hype, and obviously (based on the line moves) that everyone loves the over. Personally, I just don't see anyway it gets there.
Tonight look for one of those games where the clock bleeds away, and before you know it, the game is at half time 3-0. Both teams will be happy not to get hurt and move on with a win minus the style points.
Cmon man. 3-0 at half???? Do you take equity line? I will put my $158K on it that Eagle will be more than 16 at halftime. That's the best bet on today's board!!!! Eagle team over at halftime!
Quote Originally Posted by m15525:
Tonight is the biggest total mismatch I have seen all year based on the situation. This game has all the looks of one thing, but will play out the exact opposite.
The total on tonight's game has hit 52.0 and is now a terrific opportunity to play the under. Quite frankly I would have still played it under at 49.5 had the line not moved, but I'll take the extra field goal in a swirling wind stadium.
Here is why the under will cash, and I have looked around the board here and haven't seen this point hammered in yet (hence my post.)
A quick look at last week's Eagles game against Chicago reeked of a scheduler's trap. The birds were coming off a gauntlet schedueld. (1) prime time home win vs. Peyton Manning & the Colts, followed by (2) prime time Monday Night win versus McNabb against divisional foe Washington, topped off with (3) Prime time home win vs. their biggest divisional rival of late in the. New York Giants. Then, off these 3 games had to go on the road off a Sunday night short week to face a Bears team waiting in the wings, who subsequently ambushed the Eagles.
Can you blame the Eagles? In this NFL, to run that type of schedule and then drop a road game? Not too surprising, it shouldn't have been.
Anyway, last extend the thought process from my previous paragraphs. Tonight, the Eagles will continue their extraordinary battle against the calendar off basically a 3 day week.
Figure after the 4PM Bears game, the eagles got done with the media by 9 or so went to the airport and probably didn't land i Philly until around 12am EST. Monday was an off (heal the wounds day) leaving only Tues and Wed to prepare for the out of conference Texans. How can an NFL team heal and prepare a game plan in 2 days of practice? Where is time for film? Where is time for meetings and strategy?....There is none. The total keeps climbing. It's going to be vanilla all the way, there wasn't enough time to prepare anything else.
Here is the capper....oh, btw...the Eagles have the Cowboys up next week. So if there is any goodies in the playbook, count on the Eagles saving that for Dallas (not tonight.)
Banged Up Players + No Film + No meetings + Divisional Rival next week = No Frills Offense (ie, see the pre-season).
The Texans, will be experiencing the short week as well. all this talk bout how bad their defense is...but my stats show they shut out the Titans 5 days ago. Although I am not a huge believer in temperatures having a drastic result in final scores, I do believe in the whole indoor vs. outdoor factor as it deals with changing sideline coaching decisions. The Texans are more the capable in the running game averaging over 130 a game. Also note Matt Schaub will be playing hurt and his favorite target Owen Daniels has been officially rule out.
By game time tonight the temperature will be around 35 and though the NWS shows only 6 mph winds, the stadium is located by the river on the low land. So count on the prevailing wind (which swirls in the stadium bowl) to be a factor in the passing game and kicking game.
I know the media hype, and obviously (based on the line moves) that everyone loves the over. Personally, I just don't see anyway it gets there.
Tonight look for one of those games where the clock bleeds away, and before you know it, the game is at half time 3-0. Both teams will be happy not to get hurt and move on with a win minus the style points.
I wouldn't want to be laying more then a TD in this one. Especially with a Texans team that is capable of a garbage time backdoor cover if they are within 16 points in the final minutes. If the Eagles are not up by 17 or more late in the 4th you will be sweating you n*ts off that Shaub doesn't get a chance against a soft defense (thinking about Dallas.)
Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:
you make a strong case... and based on those arguments, i think a strong case could be made for the underdog, as well...
I wouldn't want to be laying more then a TD in this one. Especially with a Texans team that is capable of a garbage time backdoor cover if they are within 16 points in the final minutes. If the Eagles are not up by 17 or more late in the 4th you will be sweating you n*ts off that Shaub doesn't get a chance against a soft defense (thinking about Dallas.)
Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:
you make a strong case... and based on those arguments, i think a strong case could be made for the underdog, as well...
you make a strong case... and based on those arguments, i think a strong case could be made for the underdog, as well...
good stuff!
QUOTEI wouldn't want to be laying more then a TD
in this one. Especially with a Texans team that is capable of a garbage
time backdoor cover if they are within 16 points in the final minutes.
If the Eagles are not up by 17 or more late in the 4th you will be sweating you n*ts off that Shaub doesn't get a chance against a soft defense (thinking about Dallas.)
you make a strong case... and based on those arguments, i think a strong case could be made for the underdog, as well...
good stuff!
QUOTEI wouldn't want to be laying more then a TD
in this one. Especially with a Texans team that is capable of a garbage
time backdoor cover if they are within 16 points in the final minutes.
If the Eagles are not up by 17 or more late in the 4th you will be sweating you n*ts off that Shaub doesn't get a chance against a soft defense (thinking about Dallas.)
m15525, great write up. I was and still am worried the weather conditions in Philly.. i flew back from NY last night and thank god my flight was not canceled while other did. I don't think today would be as windy tonight but it would be damn cold. Just wondering how bad the cold would effect the Texans.
m15525, great write up. I was and still am worried the weather conditions in Philly.. i flew back from NY last night and thank god my flight was not canceled while other did. I don't think today would be as windy tonight but it would be damn cold. Just wondering how bad the cold would effect the Texans.
m15525, great write up. I was and still am worried the weather conditions in Philly.. i flew back from NY last night and thank god my flight was not canceled while other did. I don't think today would be as windy tonight but it would be damn cold. Just wondering how bad the cold would effect the Texans.
History has proven, at least statistically ATS in football, that temperature has little to no impact on the outcome. In fact, it is almost an in side joke amongst oddsmakers when the public talks about how a warm weather team can't play in the cold. It is a flat out myth that statistics do not defend. The only thing you can learn from these stats.. is that If a teams doesn't perform well in the cold...its because they aren't a good team (the weather is irrelevant.) The big difference, I believe, is that a dome team has no wind to worry about. A 50 yd field goal attempt is no different either way you are going ...not like kicking into the open endzone at Hienz Field in Pittsburgh towards the river. (FYI, no one has ever made a 50 yard field goal in that direction since Hienz Field opened, pro or college) So ultimately it makes spontaneous coaching decisions a lot easier in a dome then outside
Thats not to say that the temperature has never effected a team. Baseball its huge (ie see any dome or northeastern baseball teams record in day games between July & August at Texas Rangers.
m15525, great write up. I was and still am worried the weather conditions in Philly.. i flew back from NY last night and thank god my flight was not canceled while other did. I don't think today would be as windy tonight but it would be damn cold. Just wondering how bad the cold would effect the Texans.
History has proven, at least statistically ATS in football, that temperature has little to no impact on the outcome. In fact, it is almost an in side joke amongst oddsmakers when the public talks about how a warm weather team can't play in the cold. It is a flat out myth that statistics do not defend. The only thing you can learn from these stats.. is that If a teams doesn't perform well in the cold...its because they aren't a good team (the weather is irrelevant.) The big difference, I believe, is that a dome team has no wind to worry about. A 50 yd field goal attempt is no different either way you are going ...not like kicking into the open endzone at Hienz Field in Pittsburgh towards the river. (FYI, no one has ever made a 50 yard field goal in that direction since Hienz Field opened, pro or college) So ultimately it makes spontaneous coaching decisions a lot easier in a dome then outside
Thats not to say that the temperature has never effected a team. Baseball its huge (ie see any dome or northeastern baseball teams record in day games between July & August at Texas Rangers.
The Texans, will be experiencing the short week as well. all this talk bout how bad their defense is...but my stats show they shut out the Titans 5 days ago. Although I am not a huge believer in temperatures having a drastic result in final scores, I do believe in the whole indoor vs. outdoor factor as it deals with changing sideline coaching decisions. The Texans are more the capable in the running game averaging over 130 a game. Also note Matt Schaub will be playing hurt and his favorite target Owen Daniels has been officially rule out.
Solid write up as always! I'm not knocking you, but Owen Daniels hasn't been a factor in quite some time. He has a new favorite Tight End, Joel Dressen, which is somewhat like OD. He has made incredible catches down the middle the last few games.
The Texans, will be experiencing the short week as well. all this talk bout how bad their defense is...but my stats show they shut out the Titans 5 days ago. Although I am not a huge believer in temperatures having a drastic result in final scores, I do believe in the whole indoor vs. outdoor factor as it deals with changing sideline coaching decisions. The Texans are more the capable in the running game averaging over 130 a game. Also note Matt Schaub will be playing hurt and his favorite target Owen Daniels has been officially rule out.
Solid write up as always! I'm not knocking you, but Owen Daniels hasn't been a factor in quite some time. He has a new favorite Tight End, Joel Dressen, which is somewhat like OD. He has made incredible catches down the middle the last few games.
Under 52.5 -115 gets a bettor the win instead of the push on finals like 28-24, 31-21, 35-17, and 38-14.
Bator,
I am with you 100%..that seemingly little 1/2 point is possibly a whole extra possession for team. 7 TDs and a FG is not enough. 52.5 has always been a key total number for me too.
I always said Vegas was built on 49.5 's (never mind the 3.5's)
Under 52.5 -115 gets a bettor the win instead of the push on finals like 28-24, 31-21, 35-17, and 38-14.
Bator,
I am with you 100%..that seemingly little 1/2 point is possibly a whole extra possession for team. 7 TDs and a FG is not enough. 52.5 has always been a key total number for me too.
I always said Vegas was built on 49.5 's (never mind the 3.5's)
Great to see you on this in a big way, m15525. In support of the Texans' heavily-criticized defensive unit, I mentioned in another thread that they blanked their last opponent, and was quickly mocked for it because the opposing quarterback was Rusty Smith (as if this was brand new information to me). I say it hardly matters that the other team had a weak QB. A shutout is a shutout, and for a Houston team that had allowed almost 29 points per game over their first 10 games, it had to feel great to walk off of their home field last Sunday while staring at that big "0" on the board for the other team. A strong defensive game should push them to want to try and shut another team down.
Great to see you on this in a big way, m15525. In support of the Texans' heavily-criticized defensive unit, I mentioned in another thread that they blanked their last opponent, and was quickly mocked for it because the opposing quarterback was Rusty Smith (as if this was brand new information to me). I say it hardly matters that the other team had a weak QB. A shutout is a shutout, and for a Houston team that had allowed almost 29 points per game over their first 10 games, it had to feel great to walk off of their home field last Sunday while staring at that big "0" on the board for the other team. A strong defensive game should push them to want to try and shut another team down.
ya this one falls under the total for sure. g;l all, houston might gover the # as well, but only a small play. should be going to the window with the under bet
ya this one falls under the total for sure. g;l all, houston might gover the # as well, but only a small play. should be going to the window with the under bet
Under 52.5 -115 gets a bettor the win instead of the push on finals like 28-24, 31-21, 35-17, and 38-14.
We won't see a 52.5 across the board either. I am just waiting for the numbers guys to hit this line and sink it back under 52. They must be hanging out waiting to buy a 52.5 it come....but if it does it won't be there for long (a few second maybe). But based on your post..I think the books are probably getting a tad bit scared about getting a middle between the 49.5 and 52.5.
Under 52.5 -115 gets a bettor the win instead of the push on finals like 28-24, 31-21, 35-17, and 38-14.
We won't see a 52.5 across the board either. I am just waiting for the numbers guys to hit this line and sink it back under 52. They must be hanging out waiting to buy a 52.5 it come....but if it does it won't be there for long (a few second maybe). But based on your post..I think the books are probably getting a tad bit scared about getting a middle between the 49.5 and 52.5.
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