Adding 3 props that meet my criteria... Tyler Boyd Over 5.5 Rec (+100) for 2 units ($200 to win $200) Mike Gesicki Over 3.5 Rec (-120) for 2 units ($240 to win $200) DJ Moore Over 5.5 Rec (+100) for 1 unit ($100 to win $100)
Good luck Boyd and gesicki are in my fantasy lineup
Adding 3 props that meet my criteria... Tyler Boyd Over 5.5 Rec (+100) for 2 units ($200 to win $200) Mike Gesicki Over 3.5 Rec (-120) for 2 units ($240 to win $200) DJ Moore Over 5.5 Rec (+100) for 1 unit ($100 to win $100)
Good luck Boyd and gesicki are in my fantasy lineup
1. Jags +3 (-110) for 2 units ($220 to win $200) *LOSS*
2. Dolphins +6.5 (-110) for 2 units ($220 to win $200) *LOSS*
3. Panthers +3 (+100) for 2 units ($200 to win $200) *WIN*
4. Rams -13 (-110) for 1 unit ($110 to win $100) ... *LOSS*
5. Lions +3 (-110) for 1 unit ($110 to win $100) *LOSS*
6. Texans -3.5 (-110) for 1 unit ($110 to win $100) *LOSS*
7. Jags ML (+140) for a half unit ($50 to win $70) *LOSS*
8. Panthers ML (+140) for a half unit ($50 to win $70) *WIN*
9. Lions ML (+140) for a half unit ($50 to win $70) *LOSS*
10. Dolphins ML (+210) for a half unit ($50 to win $105) *LOSS*
-5.8 units on sides ... tough start but I see a good bounce back week! As mentioned above, week 4 is when I start all my NFL wagers. I see some positive regression approaching as we had a few bad breaks.
1. Jags +3 (-110) for 2 units ($220 to win $200) *LOSS*
2. Dolphins +6.5 (-110) for 2 units ($220 to win $200) *LOSS*
3. Panthers +3 (+100) for 2 units ($200 to win $200) *WIN*
4. Rams -13 (-110) for 1 unit ($110 to win $100) ... *LOSS*
5. Lions +3 (-110) for 1 unit ($110 to win $100) *LOSS*
6. Texans -3.5 (-110) for 1 unit ($110 to win $100) *LOSS*
7. Jags ML (+140) for a half unit ($50 to win $70) *LOSS*
8. Panthers ML (+140) for a half unit ($50 to win $70) *WIN*
9. Lions ML (+140) for a half unit ($50 to win $70) *LOSS*
10. Dolphins ML (+210) for a half unit ($50 to win $105) *LOSS*
-5.8 units on sides ... tough start but I see a good bounce back week! As mentioned above, week 4 is when I start all my NFL wagers. I see some positive regression approaching as we had a few bad breaks.
Bucs @ Bears Opening: Bucs -5.5, O/U 45 ... Current Line Bucs -5.5 (at +107), OU 44
Situation: Here we have 2 very defensive teams that like to contain their opponents and slow down the pace of play. This game is going to be won in the trenches. Tampa is coming off of a 7 point home win vs. a depleted Chargers defense, where the Bears are coming off of a home loss in a snooze fest vs. the Colts. Slight edge on a short week would go to the Bears at home, especially after a loss in a get right spot. However, over the years it's been quite profitable betting ATS on the "better team" due to the short week and less time to prepare, the more talented team usually comes out and covers. We do also have the public very shortsighted on this one as we see 82% of the tickets coming in on the Bucs. Definitely due to the 38 points scored last week and Brady playing out of his mind. Also seeing 70% of bets coming in on the Over but the line dropping a full point from 45 to 44. Public betting edge also goes to the Bears.
Tampa Breakdown: Bucs = number 1 DVOA team (7th in offense and 2nd in defense). Their offensive line numbers rank 16th in run blocking, & 6th in pass protection. The offense for the Bucs has continuously progressed each week - ranking 8th in points/game with 30 points scored on avg. They also have a very efficient redzone offense, scoring a TD 80% of the time for 2nd best in the league. However, they are up against a much tougher defense in the Bears and if the Bucs want to find success offensively in this game it will have to be short throws over the middle into the open pockets to the WRs and dump offs to the RBs. Evans will draw tight matchups on the outside which should open up the middle for Brady to take advantage of a somewhat weaker LB core. This is where teams in past weeks have had success moving the chains against this Bears defense. Ronald Jones will have to be effective out of the back field and be a part of the passing game. The WR core has taken a major hit, and we will have to monitor the injury report in this one. On the defensive side of the ball, this Bucs team is thriving... 8th in Opp points/game (23), 2nd in Opp Rush Yards/game (64.2), 2nd in Opp Rush Yards/Play (2.7). However, they have been slightly more exposed through the air where they rank in the lower half of the league in all counting stat categories. And this was against some of the lower tier QBs in the league - a slowing down Brees, Dink and Dunk Bridgewater, Driskel & Rypien... yuck, and last week vs. the rookie Herbert (who does look promising).
Tampa Injuries: Offense = TE Rob Gronkowski - Questionable with a shoulder injury, TE OJ Howard - Out for the year, WR Chris Godwin - Doubtful with a hammy injury, WR Mike Evans - Questionable with an ankle injury, WR Scotty Miller - Questionable with a hip injury, and Justin Watson - Questionable with a chest injury ... Defense = DE William Gholston - Questionable with a neck injury and LE Jason Pierre-Paul - Questionable with a knee injury. Some key injuries on both offense and defense for the Bucs on a short week.
Bucs @ Bears Opening: Bucs -5.5, O/U 45 ... Current Line Bucs -5.5 (at +107), OU 44
Situation: Here we have 2 very defensive teams that like to contain their opponents and slow down the pace of play. This game is going to be won in the trenches. Tampa is coming off of a 7 point home win vs. a depleted Chargers defense, where the Bears are coming off of a home loss in a snooze fest vs. the Colts. Slight edge on a short week would go to the Bears at home, especially after a loss in a get right spot. However, over the years it's been quite profitable betting ATS on the "better team" due to the short week and less time to prepare, the more talented team usually comes out and covers. We do also have the public very shortsighted on this one as we see 82% of the tickets coming in on the Bucs. Definitely due to the 38 points scored last week and Brady playing out of his mind. Also seeing 70% of bets coming in on the Over but the line dropping a full point from 45 to 44. Public betting edge also goes to the Bears.
Tampa Breakdown: Bucs = number 1 DVOA team (7th in offense and 2nd in defense). Their offensive line numbers rank 16th in run blocking, & 6th in pass protection. The offense for the Bucs has continuously progressed each week - ranking 8th in points/game with 30 points scored on avg. They also have a very efficient redzone offense, scoring a TD 80% of the time for 2nd best in the league. However, they are up against a much tougher defense in the Bears and if the Bucs want to find success offensively in this game it will have to be short throws over the middle into the open pockets to the WRs and dump offs to the RBs. Evans will draw tight matchups on the outside which should open up the middle for Brady to take advantage of a somewhat weaker LB core. This is where teams in past weeks have had success moving the chains against this Bears defense. Ronald Jones will have to be effective out of the back field and be a part of the passing game. The WR core has taken a major hit, and we will have to monitor the injury report in this one. On the defensive side of the ball, this Bucs team is thriving... 8th in Opp points/game (23), 2nd in Opp Rush Yards/game (64.2), 2nd in Opp Rush Yards/Play (2.7). However, they have been slightly more exposed through the air where they rank in the lower half of the league in all counting stat categories. And this was against some of the lower tier QBs in the league - a slowing down Brees, Dink and Dunk Bridgewater, Driskel & Rypien... yuck, and last week vs. the rookie Herbert (who does look promising).
Tampa Injuries: Offense = TE Rob Gronkowski - Questionable with a shoulder injury, TE OJ Howard - Out for the year, WR Chris Godwin - Doubtful with a hammy injury, WR Mike Evans - Questionable with an ankle injury, WR Scotty Miller - Questionable with a hip injury, and Justin Watson - Questionable with a chest injury ... Defense = DE William Gholston - Questionable with a neck injury and LE Jason Pierre-Paul - Questionable with a knee injury. Some key injuries on both offense and defense for the Bucs on a short week.
Chicago Breakdown: Foles... he looked terrible last week after coming in the previous week to pull off a come from behind victory. Montgomery has also struggled to muster up longer runs that keep this offense on the field. Their offense ranks in the bottom of the league in most efficiency stats, however, that was with Trubisky for 75% of it. To have success this week, they will have to lean heavily on the pass attack and try to exploit the lone weak spot on this Bucs elite defensive core. The Bears do have an elite protection offense, which should allow Foles some extra time in the pocket this week. If Allen Robinson can maintain separation, he should be open for Foles majority of the night, while Anthony Miller and Graham should be available over the middle and Montgomery for dump offs in tight. I see Foles being able to do enough to keep this game within reach. The Bears defense will ultimately have to limit their mistakes, and not allow Brady time to pick them apart. Which, I see the Bears finding success this week in doing so *AS LONG AS MACK PLAYS*. This Bears defense ranks 7th in Opp points/game (20.2), 14th in Opp rush yard/play (4.2), 6th in Opp pass yard/play (6.2), 9th in Opp pass yard/game (230.2). A pretty well balanced defense with a small hole in their LB group that can be exposed at times leaving openings over the middle.
Chicago Injuries: Offense = nothing new to note ... Defense = LB Khalil Mack - Questionable with a knee injury, SS Deon Bush - Questionable with a hammy injury and FS Sherrick McManis - Questionable with a hammy injury. Both of these safeties come in as subs.
Analysis: Both teams run an effective 3-4 defense that gobbles up the run quite well. However, both teams - while focused primarily on stopping the run, can be beat through the air. The Bears have a slight advantage in defending the air attack. After seeing the injury report, the Bears definitely have an advantage here. That said, if Mack misses this game, this could limit the pass rush for the Bears and allow Brady more time to find his open receivers. In saying that, if Mack plays, and Foles can be protected by the 8th best ranked pass protection line in the league, then I can see the Bears having some success moving the ball. Foles will need to lean on Robinson, Montgomery, Graham and Miller as the run game will be less than effective. Tampa needs to get healthy on the short week. If they are without 2 or 3 starting WRs, and already down their TE snaps leader in Howard, this offense could struggle. Also, potentially without two starters on defense - Gholston and Pierre-Paul - this Bucs team could be in a tough spot. Add in the public perception edge, home field off a loss edge, and in a lower scoring game... I lean the Bears + the points here. Also, lean under 44
Would love to get a discussion going! Cheers and BOL!
Chicago Breakdown: Foles... he looked terrible last week after coming in the previous week to pull off a come from behind victory. Montgomery has also struggled to muster up longer runs that keep this offense on the field. Their offense ranks in the bottom of the league in most efficiency stats, however, that was with Trubisky for 75% of it. To have success this week, they will have to lean heavily on the pass attack and try to exploit the lone weak spot on this Bucs elite defensive core. The Bears do have an elite protection offense, which should allow Foles some extra time in the pocket this week. If Allen Robinson can maintain separation, he should be open for Foles majority of the night, while Anthony Miller and Graham should be available over the middle and Montgomery for dump offs in tight. I see Foles being able to do enough to keep this game within reach. The Bears defense will ultimately have to limit their mistakes, and not allow Brady time to pick them apart. Which, I see the Bears finding success this week in doing so *AS LONG AS MACK PLAYS*. This Bears defense ranks 7th in Opp points/game (20.2), 14th in Opp rush yard/play (4.2), 6th in Opp pass yard/play (6.2), 9th in Opp pass yard/game (230.2). A pretty well balanced defense with a small hole in their LB group that can be exposed at times leaving openings over the middle.
Chicago Injuries: Offense = nothing new to note ... Defense = LB Khalil Mack - Questionable with a knee injury, SS Deon Bush - Questionable with a hammy injury and FS Sherrick McManis - Questionable with a hammy injury. Both of these safeties come in as subs.
Analysis: Both teams run an effective 3-4 defense that gobbles up the run quite well. However, both teams - while focused primarily on stopping the run, can be beat through the air. The Bears have a slight advantage in defending the air attack. After seeing the injury report, the Bears definitely have an advantage here. That said, if Mack misses this game, this could limit the pass rush for the Bears and allow Brady more time to find his open receivers. In saying that, if Mack plays, and Foles can be protected by the 8th best ranked pass protection line in the league, then I can see the Bears having some success moving the ball. Foles will need to lean on Robinson, Montgomery, Graham and Miller as the run game will be less than effective. Tampa needs to get healthy on the short week. If they are without 2 or 3 starting WRs, and already down their TE snaps leader in Howard, this offense could struggle. Also, potentially without two starters on defense - Gholston and Pierre-Paul - this Bucs team could be in a tough spot. Add in the public perception edge, home field off a loss edge, and in a lower scoring game... I lean the Bears + the points here. Also, lean under 44
Would love to get a discussion going! Cheers and BOL!
Cards @ Jets Opening: Cards -7.5, O/U 47 ... Current Line: Cards -7.5 (at +107), OU 46.5
Situation: Here we have a team in the Cards that has started to spiral backwards up against the Jets who have been terrible out of the gates and will be starting Joe Flacco in this matchup. Perhaps a slight Prime Time look ahead spot for the Cards with a Monday night matchup next week against the Cowboys. We also have 87% of tickets coming in on the Cards. However, the line did dip down to -7 and quickly back up to -7.5 ... this 0.5 hook could be telling, but could also leave the possibility open for a backdoor cover by the Flacco lead Jets. Not much to note on the O/U, outside of the 0.5 drop to 46.5 for 47, probably due to the offensive player injuries to both teams.
Cards Breakdown: 23rd Overall rank in DVOA (Offense = 25th, Defense = 19th). For a team that is perceived to be a high octane offensive club, their offense has dwindled since week 1. They now rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in most offensive efficiency stats, outside of being the #4 redzone offense converting a TD 78% of the time. They do, however, have the 10th most rush attempts per game to go along with the 6th best yards/rush (4.9) and 6th best rush yards/game (144.5) - this has a lot to do with Kyler's running ability and Kenyan Drake has struggled so far this season. Their passing attack has also struggled, ranking 25th in yards/pass (6.3), 23rd in pass yards/game (225.8) .. all while being in the top third of the league in pass attempts per game. Accompany this with the 24th ranked run blocking offense and the 19th ranked pass protection, this offense is getting a little too much hype. TO have success in this game offensively, Kyler will have to remain patient and look for Hopkins over the middle. He cannot force any plays that result in turn overs or quick 3 and outs. To cover bigger spreads in the NFL, teams need to be able to move the ball efficiently while limiting their mistakes. They should find some success on the ground with Kyler and both Drake and Edmunds, but they will need to find success through the air as well to cover this TD+ road favourite line. On the defensive side of the ball the Cards have improved immensely this season, however, they have some very key injuries in their secondary and LB group. They are ranked 8th overall in Opp points/game (23), 15th in both Opp yards/play & Opp yards/game, and also have the 4th best redzone defense holding their opponents to 44% TD conversions. That said, they have been exposed greatly against the run this season - allowing on avg 124.5 rush yards against per game. Thankfully, the Jets do not have a great rushing attack so it may be hard for them to exploit this weakness. Due to some injuries though in the Cards secondary, their defense may be more exposed against the pass like they were last week in Carolina.
Cards Injuries: Offense = RB Kenyan Drake - Questionable with a Chest Injury (sounds like he is going to play), and LG Justin Pugh - Questionable with a leg injury .. already down blocking TE Maxx Williams as well! ... Defense = LB Devon Kennard - Questionable with a calf injury, SS Chris Banjo - Questionable with a hammy injury, and FS Budda Baker - Questionable with a thumb injury. That's 3 key starters at risk to miss this game...
Cards @ Jets Opening: Cards -7.5, O/U 47 ... Current Line: Cards -7.5 (at +107), OU 46.5
Situation: Here we have a team in the Cards that has started to spiral backwards up against the Jets who have been terrible out of the gates and will be starting Joe Flacco in this matchup. Perhaps a slight Prime Time look ahead spot for the Cards with a Monday night matchup next week against the Cowboys. We also have 87% of tickets coming in on the Cards. However, the line did dip down to -7 and quickly back up to -7.5 ... this 0.5 hook could be telling, but could also leave the possibility open for a backdoor cover by the Flacco lead Jets. Not much to note on the O/U, outside of the 0.5 drop to 46.5 for 47, probably due to the offensive player injuries to both teams.
Cards Breakdown: 23rd Overall rank in DVOA (Offense = 25th, Defense = 19th). For a team that is perceived to be a high octane offensive club, their offense has dwindled since week 1. They now rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in most offensive efficiency stats, outside of being the #4 redzone offense converting a TD 78% of the time. They do, however, have the 10th most rush attempts per game to go along with the 6th best yards/rush (4.9) and 6th best rush yards/game (144.5) - this has a lot to do with Kyler's running ability and Kenyan Drake has struggled so far this season. Their passing attack has also struggled, ranking 25th in yards/pass (6.3), 23rd in pass yards/game (225.8) .. all while being in the top third of the league in pass attempts per game. Accompany this with the 24th ranked run blocking offense and the 19th ranked pass protection, this offense is getting a little too much hype. TO have success in this game offensively, Kyler will have to remain patient and look for Hopkins over the middle. He cannot force any plays that result in turn overs or quick 3 and outs. To cover bigger spreads in the NFL, teams need to be able to move the ball efficiently while limiting their mistakes. They should find some success on the ground with Kyler and both Drake and Edmunds, but they will need to find success through the air as well to cover this TD+ road favourite line. On the defensive side of the ball the Cards have improved immensely this season, however, they have some very key injuries in their secondary and LB group. They are ranked 8th overall in Opp points/game (23), 15th in both Opp yards/play & Opp yards/game, and also have the 4th best redzone defense holding their opponents to 44% TD conversions. That said, they have been exposed greatly against the run this season - allowing on avg 124.5 rush yards against per game. Thankfully, the Jets do not have a great rushing attack so it may be hard for them to exploit this weakness. Due to some injuries though in the Cards secondary, their defense may be more exposed against the pass like they were last week in Carolina.
Cards Injuries: Offense = RB Kenyan Drake - Questionable with a Chest Injury (sounds like he is going to play), and LG Justin Pugh - Questionable with a leg injury .. already down blocking TE Maxx Williams as well! ... Defense = LB Devon Kennard - Questionable with a calf injury, SS Chris Banjo - Questionable with a hammy injury, and FS Budda Baker - Questionable with a thumb injury. That's 3 key starters at risk to miss this game...
Jets Breakdown: Jets rank near the bottom at 29th in DVOA (Offense = 28, Defense = 10). Their offensive line ranks 26th in run blocking and 22nd in pass protection. This is not the recipe that is set out to compete with the Cards, especially with all the injuries to the Jets line. In order to beat or at least stay close in this game, the Jets will need to somehow find success in the run game. An area where the Jets rank 21st in rush yards/play (4.1) and 26th in rush yards/game (98.5) - albeit without their lead back, Le'Veon Bell. The Jets passing attack isn't that much better, and an added question mark with Flacco under center this week. They already rank dead last in pass yards/play (5.1) and dead last in pass yards/game (179.5). I just have a hard time seeing Flacco coming in and making that any better. Crowder has been great, but he is the security blanket in this offense that gets targeted in tight from the slot and not seen as a downfield stretcher. Seeing the Jets having success moving the ball this week, even against a somewhat depleted Cards secondary, seems unlikely. Now on the defensive side of the ball, they have been mediocre at best. They hover around the middle of the pack in Opp yards/play and Opp yards/game.
Jets Injuries: Offense = QB Sam Darnold - Ruled Out with a shoulder injury, WR Breshad Perriman - Questionable with an ankle injury, RT George Fant - Questionable with a thumb injury, LT Mekhi Becton - Questionable with a shoulder injury, Chuma Edoga - Questionable with a shoulder injury ... that's 3 tackles out, two of which being LTs meaning they will be rolling out a tackle that will play out of natural position. .. Defense = CB Quincy Wilson - Questionable with a concussion, CB Bless Austin - Questionable with a calf injury, FS Ashtyn Davis - Questionable with a groin injury, LB Jordan Willis - Doubtful with an ankle injury, DT Steve McLendon - Questionable with a knee injury. Lots of injuries, many of which are key starters on both offense and defense.
Analysis: I could see Kyler and Hopkins having a field day against this injure ridden Jets defense. And this is a great get right spot for Drake. We already know Kyler has the ability to burn defenses with his legs. If the Jets get back some key pieces in defense, this could be a little less intriguing. That said, the Jets will more than likely be without 3 o-linemen that could leave Flacco on his back more times than he wishes. Right now, it's Cards or no play. I will have to wait for the final injury reports on Friday and Saturday. It is definitely hard laying -7.5 on a road favourite that has struggled the last couple of weeks, especially in a play down to their opponent/look ahead spot. But, I do lean the Cards for now.
Jets Breakdown: Jets rank near the bottom at 29th in DVOA (Offense = 28, Defense = 10). Their offensive line ranks 26th in run blocking and 22nd in pass protection. This is not the recipe that is set out to compete with the Cards, especially with all the injuries to the Jets line. In order to beat or at least stay close in this game, the Jets will need to somehow find success in the run game. An area where the Jets rank 21st in rush yards/play (4.1) and 26th in rush yards/game (98.5) - albeit without their lead back, Le'Veon Bell. The Jets passing attack isn't that much better, and an added question mark with Flacco under center this week. They already rank dead last in pass yards/play (5.1) and dead last in pass yards/game (179.5). I just have a hard time seeing Flacco coming in and making that any better. Crowder has been great, but he is the security blanket in this offense that gets targeted in tight from the slot and not seen as a downfield stretcher. Seeing the Jets having success moving the ball this week, even against a somewhat depleted Cards secondary, seems unlikely. Now on the defensive side of the ball, they have been mediocre at best. They hover around the middle of the pack in Opp yards/play and Opp yards/game.
Jets Injuries: Offense = QB Sam Darnold - Ruled Out with a shoulder injury, WR Breshad Perriman - Questionable with an ankle injury, RT George Fant - Questionable with a thumb injury, LT Mekhi Becton - Questionable with a shoulder injury, Chuma Edoga - Questionable with a shoulder injury ... that's 3 tackles out, two of which being LTs meaning they will be rolling out a tackle that will play out of natural position. .. Defense = CB Quincy Wilson - Questionable with a concussion, CB Bless Austin - Questionable with a calf injury, FS Ashtyn Davis - Questionable with a groin injury, LB Jordan Willis - Doubtful with an ankle injury, DT Steve McLendon - Questionable with a knee injury. Lots of injuries, many of which are key starters on both offense and defense.
Analysis: I could see Kyler and Hopkins having a field day against this injure ridden Jets defense. And this is a great get right spot for Drake. We already know Kyler has the ability to burn defenses with his legs. If the Jets get back some key pieces in defense, this could be a little less intriguing. That said, the Jets will more than likely be without 3 o-linemen that could leave Flacco on his back more times than he wishes. Right now, it's Cards or no play. I will have to wait for the final injury reports on Friday and Saturday. It is definitely hard laying -7.5 on a road favourite that has struggled the last couple of weeks, especially in a play down to their opponent/look ahead spot. But, I do lean the Cards for now.
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