In my analysis I really focused on the 4 games that I felt provided the Patriots with similar opposition as they'll face tonight. Those 4 games are the Jets (x2), Cinci and Dophins games. These teams have very similar defenses, most notably the D lines. I chose to focus on the D lines specifically because it's no secret the ONLY way you'll have success vs Brady is with a consistent pass rush and getting creative with how you pressure him to keep him off balance.
In those 4 games Brady's totals are 72-145 (49% comp) with 2 TDs/3 Int's, 181 yd passing avg with his MOST yards being 228 in a single game (2nd Jets game). That's right...4 games, 2 TD's and missing his targets on over half of his throws.
Quick breakdown:
Jets (1st game): 19-39 (48%) 185 yds 1 TD. Patriots won this game 13-10 (-10.5 fav), Jets didn't help themselves with 1 lost fumble and 3 Int's thrown.
Cinci: 18-38 (47%) 197 yds 1 Int. In bad weather the Patriots lost 13-6 (-2 fav), they forced 1 Int and 1 fumble.
Dolphins: 13-22 (59%) 116 yds 1 TD 1 Int. Patriots won 27-17 (-6.5 fav), Tannehill certainly helped with his 1 fumble and 2 Int's.
Jets (2nd game): 22-46 (47%) 228 yds 1 Int. Patriots won 30-27 (-3.5 fav), Geno helped the cause with throwing a pick 6.
*In these 4 games the Pats surrendered 19 sacks. Again, the Panthers D Line is very similar to these 4.
Defense
Both teams rank in the top 10, Pats #8 and Panthers #1 in total defense. Panthers have given up 9 total TDs, while Pats have allowed 17. These 2 teams are eerily similar in two other categories, sacks and interceptions. Panthers have 29 sacks and 13 Int's on the year while the Pats have 29 sacks and 12 Int's.
Run D
Panthers are ranked #2 (allowing 82 yds/game), Pats #19 (allowing 129 yds/game). Panthers have only given up 2 rushing TD's this year, and the Pats have allowed 4.
Edge: significant edge to Panthers
Pass D
Panthers are #2, Pats #6. Very close in #'s, Panthers allowing 6.6yds per completion, Pats allowing 6.7. Panthers have given up 7 passing TDs, while the Pats have allowed 12.
Edge: Push
Rushing - offense
The two teams rank #13 & #14 respectfully in rushing. Both teams have missed key contributors in this category for most of the season...Pats get Vereen back tonight, and Panthers got Stewart back 2 games ago.
Edge: slight edge to Panthers
Even statistically, why the edge to Panthers? I think the loss of both Wilfork and his replacement, Kelly, will allow the Panthers to have success with their running game. D-Will as the home run guy, and Tolbert/Stewart to wear down the interior D Line of the Pats. Also Cam's ability to extend drives running the ball should be noted. I think Belichick will be putting a lot of pressure on Cam, and Cam will have several opportunities to make plays outside the pocket with his legs.
As far as running games go, I'd say the Jets are the closest to the Panthers as far as their mentality on offense, and schemes. In the 2 Jets/Pats games the Pats gave up a total of 306 yards rushing. To the others the Pats gave up 162 yds to the Bengals, and 156 yds to the Dolphins.
Passing - offense
The two teams Passing #'s are actually very similar, Pats are completing 57% (for 232 yds/game) of their passes, and the Panthers are completing 62.7% (for 196 yds/game). Pats are 25th in passing, Panthers are 31st. I think this is more of a result of each teams offensive make-up, Pats more of a passing team, where the Panthers rely much more on their running game.
Edge: slight edge to the Patriots
Prediction
Without knowing (or caring) about where the $ is going I would have to assume off a bye the Pats are getting a lot of the $$ pouring in on them +3. This crap about Belichick/Brady off a bye being untouchable is ridiculous...while the past 5 years they are 4-1 off a bye (I don't look back 10 years, sorry), they have only played 2 teams with winning records during that span, losing to the Steelers by 8 in 2011 and beating the Ravens by a FG in OT back in 2010 23-20. Off their bye last year they allowed a 6-10 Bills team to hang 31 pts on them...they were outgained by by 140 yds, allowed Fitzpatrick to throw for 337 yds, and won by 6 pts in large part to the Bills 3 costly turnovers.
I think the Panthers are in line for a huge win tonight..The Panthers in my opinion will control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and this is the single biggest factor to me in determining the outcome of this game. When Pats get pressure on Cam I think he will make enough plays with his legs to pick up some key 1st downs and extend drives. On the flip side I see Brady getting his bell rung on a couple of different occasions. I think DWill/Tolbert/Stewart will wear down that D-Line and down the stretch will be able to rip off yards in bunches. Talib back will help the Pats no question about it, but I am confident saying the entire gameplan will be based around our running game and mixing in low risk passing plays to Olsen/Lafell. I think you will however see Cam take at least 2 deep shots to Ginn at some point.
This ain't you grandpa's Carolina team. They are playing the best defense in the NFL and they have the front 4 to keep Brady off balance all night. Save the "who have they played" junk....bottom line is they have hammered the teams they've suppose to of hammered, and easily could be a 8-1 team as we had the Seahawks and Bills both dead to rights. Riverboat Ron is taking more chances, the D is down right nasty, and our players are really rallying behind their motto of "being very relevant". Tonight they will show the world that they mean business, with them playing the best ball of their season and with their confidence at an all time high I predict:
Cats 27 Patriots 20
GL to all of you guys tonight in whatever you decide. If you want to bash my analysis feel free, I am sure there will be quite a few haters.