My first post at covers.
I'm not exactly tearing up the books so tread likely. I try to follow
some of the better handicappers here and finalize it with my vibes. Win some, lose some. I'm somewhere right above 55%.
My own analysis, don't like to steal someones hard work.
N.E. vs PHILLY
Very very interesting game from a gamblers perspective. Biggest point spread ever against a non franchise team (-24). I missed the band wagon when line started at (-21) late Sunday This tells me that a ton of people and sharps put a ton of money on N.E.
Vegas has been losing all year with N.E., as they are 9-1 ATS this year. Line froze at 24 when sharps started putting large money back on Philly to hedge there initial bets, hoping that the score lands somewhere in the middle. Line might still be moving up
if sharps didn't start taking Philly. They knew the line wouldn't go above 24.
Next week might be a different story if they blow out Philly today.
A perfect opportunity if you bought points. I'm sure a lot of the smart betters have N.E (-18) and Philly (+27). This could be a big payday for some with relatively nothing to lose . Perhaps some juice.
I've only cashed in twice with them as I was scared to lay all them points. Well I thinks it about time I jump back on that band wagon, before they start giving the other teams 30 points
24 big ones
N.E. has only beaten 3 opponents all year by 24 (2 of last 3). Tied twice. And under 5 times. I'm putting Philly (without Mcnabb) in the same category as Buffalo and Washington, who N.E. killed 2 of those last 3 games. Other game was Indy, where Indy played tough and almost pulled off the upset. N.E got off to a terrible start that game, with some key turnovers.
N.E. could get off to a slow start today also, so why not take Philly (+16.5) for first half? Good opportunity to play sluggish, playing after Thanksgiving holidays. Opportunity also arises for N.E families to get rich off this game if some of the players decide not to play today with there "A" game (if you know what I mean). If this happens, it will be done the first half. Everything is in place. Why not? Short week, eating too much turkey, drinking too much beer with the families, they started off slow before.
Biggest bet of year on one game for me Even though it's not a for sure thing and anything can happen in the NFL, I sure do like it
For all intense purposes, this is a 6 unit bet. I can't see myself losing both, but a decent chance to win both. The only thing that might kill me is if N.E. starts off strong, and then puts there second stringers in for the second half. I'm thinking not, with Brady chasing
that record. They might take him out last quarter or so.
N.E (-22.5) bought 1.5 (12 units)
Philly (+16.5) 1st half (6 units) I'd feel a lot better on this one if it was +17.