At the risk of jumping in uninvited and interupting this great interaction...this thread should be mandatory reading for those that elect to engage on this forum.
That being said, isn't it safe to say that on occasion it all boils down to accumulated capping experience and or gut feel when picking a side?
Claw offers up a significant variable about the peril of backing a game 1 big winner in game 2. (25% cover in gm 2 L2 yrs)
Whicks mentioned SA is 40-7 at home
Wasn't Mem on a 10-0 run vs the # prior to getting butch-slapped?
Steven has SA on a 9-1 run vs. Mem at home (now 10-1) L3 yrs
I cant support this with a specific, but doesnt a team that enjoyed an extended stretch of success of wins or covers come back with a strong effort in the game following a loss?
If you take all the above, throw it in a blender and hit the switch...I think it all lands near the center of the fulcrum.
For me it then goes to the next level, which would be comparitive stat/scoring eval of team on team and team vs. team
At the risk of jumping in uninvited and interupting this great interaction...this thread should be mandatory reading for those that elect to engage on this forum.
That being said, isn't it safe to say that on occasion it all boils down to accumulated capping experience and or gut feel when picking a side?
Claw offers up a significant variable about the peril of backing a game 1 big winner in game 2. (25% cover in gm 2 L2 yrs)
Whicks mentioned SA is 40-7 at home
Wasn't Mem on a 10-0 run vs the # prior to getting butch-slapped?
Steven has SA on a 9-1 run vs. Mem at home (now 10-1) L3 yrs
I cant support this with a specific, but doesnt a team that enjoyed an extended stretch of success of wins or covers come back with a strong effort in the game following a loss?
If you take all the above, throw it in a blender and hit the switch...I think it all lands near the center of the fulcrum.
For me it then goes to the next level, which would be comparitive stat/scoring eval of team on team and team vs. team
I like to say, people bend and twist info to fit their perceptions.
Basically for the purpose of renforcing their perceptions.
Which is backwards of good analysis. One should let the info shape and form their perceptions, it's a very fine line.
History tells us teams off big wins is not a smart play.
In the past 2 years teams off 15 pt wins or better in game 1 when covering the spread by at least 10 pts are 2-6 ATS in game 2.
The reason covering the spread by 10 or more is important is you want teams who beat the expectations by a large amount therefore effecting people's perceptions.
A team winning by 16 that was a 13.5 favorite did about what was expected, but a team that wins by 15 as a 4.5 favorite would be looked at by the public different............................................................
And there you have it. Now 2-7 ATS.
I like to say, people bend and twist info to fit their perceptions.
Basically for the purpose of renforcing their perceptions.
Which is backwards of good analysis. One should let the info shape and form their perceptions, it's a very fine line.
History tells us teams off big wins is not a smart play.
In the past 2 years teams off 15 pt wins or better in game 1 when covering the spread by at least 10 pts are 2-6 ATS in game 2.
The reason covering the spread by 10 or more is important is you want teams who beat the expectations by a large amount therefore effecting people's perceptions.
A team winning by 16 that was a 13.5 favorite did about what was expected, but a team that wins by 15 as a 4.5 favorite would be looked at by the public different............................................................
And there you have it. Now 2-7 ATS.
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