Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
The series line opened at +200 and dropped to as low as +170 before tip. I don't want to argue that. On Bovada, that was the trend (and Bovada is always good
for dogs too).
That's an average of +185 if you bought it all the way down.
Now, if you bet the Spurs, who here thought the Spurs would sweep or even had a chance to?
I'll answer that. NO ONE.
If you bet the Spurs, who here thought the Spurs would grab a 3-1 lead. VERY, VERY few.
Most people betting the Spurs series line before game 1 thought it would get to 2-2 and probably go 7, with a best case scenario of grabbing a 3-2 lead in game 5. Therefore, you were betting the very scenario they are in now at +185 average and probably thought it was a good bet (and even if you got it at +200, it is STILL higher now).
So where are we now? Game 5. What is the line?
+225
That is ridiculous. It gives the Spurs virtually NO CREDIT for getting to 2-2!!
Does anyone remember Game 1 and the way Parker and Timmy played like the champions of yesteryear?
Does anyone remember a game Heat fans couldn't watch after the half in game 3, one of the biggest beatings ever for the big 3 (big 4)?
Of course not!
That is what this line is saying! It forgets almost everything because of a great Wade and LBJ performance in Game 4! You are getting A BETTER PRICE with a home game in the fold for betting the Spurs now at 2-2 than you would at 0-0!
That my friends is SQUARE LINE OF THE DAY 101 and a massive amount of disrespect for the Spurs imo.
If they go up 3-2 (and the -1.5 line for Miami I also think is a MAJOR square line as well), they are in TREMENDOUS position to win the series, even if it goes 7. To ask the Heat to take 2 of 2 in a game 6 and 7 is a tremendously hard task so don't give me a, this will go 7 with Miami at home statement.
And what will the series line be then as 3-2 Spurs if it happens?
Even money for the Spurs?
It looks like it! How far can a +225 line drop? It looks like it might be even money if they go up 3-2!!! LOL. I could be wrong but again, how far can a +225 line drop in one game?
Square line alert on the table. Do what you want with it. Even if it doesn't hit, man is that a beautiful line imo.
These are the great champions of our era: THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS PEOPLE, not some neophyte Thunder team last year, remember that. Respect that. And if the books don't because of squares, recognize it.
2-2 is probably where Spurs series bettors thought the series would be right now but several key things have changed which have lead to Series price going higher for the Spurs:
- Legitimate concern about Parker's health. Does a 100% Parker go invisible in the 2nd half of a huge game 4?
-Dwayne Wade has shown up. He was getting slammed hard after the Heats first 2 losses. If Wade keeps playing well, even if it's not as well as in game 4, the Heat are incredibly tough to beat.
-Expected reversion to the mean regarding the play of Green and Neal.
-Miami has proven when they NEED to win, they do. We knew before the series the Heat play better when they have to turn it up, but they have thoroughly dominated the games where they needed to win. In order for SA to win the series, they'll have to not only beat Miami when the Heats backs are against the wall, but do that in Miami too. Not impossible, but it hasn't been done against the Heat since when? 2 years ago in the playoffs?
From a betting perspective, the series prices have a small bit of value on the Spurs bet but not much IMO.