After Game 5: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and defeated the Miami Heat 114-pts-104 to take a 3-games-2 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1217. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the San Antonio Spurs have a 12-1 series record (with an active 11-series winning streak) and a 10-3 Game 6 record (with an active four-Game 6 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Miami Heat have a 2-3 series record and a 3-2 Game 6 record. The sole San Antonio series loss in the wake of a 3-games-2 lead in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series occurred in series 363, to the old Washington Bullets in the 1979 NBA Semifinals. In the history of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, teams such as San Antonio which post a win/site order of WLWLW @ VVHHH through five games have a 2-4 series record. In only one of those six series – the most recent – did such a team win Game 6 to win the series: In series 746, the old Florida Marlins (now the Miami Marlins) did so against the Atlanta Braves in the 1997 MLB Semifinals. So it is that a Miami-area team sets a favorable precedent for the 2013 San Antonio Spurs against the 2013 Miami Heat. Since the start of the 2013 NBA Semifinals, the Miami Heat have posted a win order of WLWLWLWLWLWL – eleven consecutive best-of-7 playoff games without a repeated outcome. In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series history, the longest streak of consecutive best-of-7 playoff games without a repeated outcome is twelve, set by the NHL Tampa Bay Lighting in series 918 (the 2004 NHL Semifinals Games 2-7) and series 920 (the 2004 NHL Finals Games 1-6). Beginning with series 918 Game 1, Tampa posted a win order of WLWLWLWLWLWLW before breaking the streak with a 2004 NHL Finals Game 7 victory for the 2004 NHL championship. So it is that another Florida team sets a favorable precedent for the 2013 Miami Heat.
After Game 5: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and defeated the Miami Heat 114-pts-104 to take a 3-games-2 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1217. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the San Antonio Spurs have a 12-1 series record (with an active 11-series winning streak) and a 10-3 Game 6 record (with an active four-Game 6 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Miami Heat have a 2-3 series record and a 3-2 Game 6 record. The sole San Antonio series loss in the wake of a 3-games-2 lead in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series occurred in series 363, to the old Washington Bullets in the 1979 NBA Semifinals. In the history of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, teams such as San Antonio which post a win/site order of WLWLW @ VVHHH through five games have a 2-4 series record. In only one of those six series – the most recent – did such a team win Game 6 to win the series: In series 746, the old Florida Marlins (now the Miami Marlins) did so against the Atlanta Braves in the 1997 MLB Semifinals. So it is that a Miami-area team sets a favorable precedent for the 2013 San Antonio Spurs against the 2013 Miami Heat. Since the start of the 2013 NBA Semifinals, the Miami Heat have posted a win order of WLWLWLWLWLWL – eleven consecutive best-of-7 playoff games without a repeated outcome. In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series history, the longest streak of consecutive best-of-7 playoff games without a repeated outcome is twelve, set by the NHL Tampa Bay Lighting in series 918 (the 2004 NHL Semifinals Games 2-7) and series 920 (the 2004 NHL Finals Games 1-6). Beginning with series 918 Game 1, Tampa posted a win order of WLWLWLWLWLWLW before breaking the streak with a 2004 NHL Finals Game 7 victory for the 2004 NHL championship. So it is that another Florida team sets a favorable precedent for the 2013 Miami Heat.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2: Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-2 irrespective of site order (San Antonio) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals: series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 556-137 (.802) series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 103-34 (.752) series record, NBA only, all rounds: 225-36 (.862) series record, NBA only, Finals round: 35-7 (.833) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 380-313 (.548) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 68-69 (.496) Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 148-113 (.567) Game 6 record, NBA only, Finals round: 25-17 (.595) These records are drawn from the applicable 1215 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ VVHHH: Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-2 with site order VVHHH (San Antonio) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals: series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 35-24 (.593) series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 21-17 (.553) series record, NBA only, all rounds: 5-4 (.556) series record, NBA only, Finals round: 5-4 (.556) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 24-35 (.407) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 12-26 (.316) Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 5-4 (.556) Game 6 record, NBA only, Finals round: 5-4 (.556) These records are drawn from the applicable 1215 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2: Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-2 irrespective of site order (San Antonio) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals: series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 556-137 (.802) series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 103-34 (.752) series record, NBA only, all rounds: 225-36 (.862) series record, NBA only, Finals round: 35-7 (.833) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 380-313 (.548) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 68-69 (.496) Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 148-113 (.567) Game 6 record, NBA only, Finals round: 25-17 (.595) These records are drawn from the applicable 1215 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ VVHHH: Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-2 with site order VVHHH (San Antonio) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals: series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 35-24 (.593) series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 21-17 (.553) series record, NBA only, all rounds: 5-4 (.556) series record, NBA only, Finals round: 5-4 (.556) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 24-35 (.407) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 12-26 (.316) Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 5-4 (.556) Game 6 record, NBA only, Finals round: 5-4 (.556) These records are drawn from the applicable 1215 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WLWLW: Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading WLWLW irrespective of site order (San Antonio) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals: series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 63-19 (.768) series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 17-6 (.739) series record, NBA only, all rounds: 37-4 (.902) series record, NBA only, Finals round: 11-1 (.917) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 40-42 (.488) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 9-14 (.391) Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 23-18 (.561) Game 6 record, NBA only, Finals round: 6-6 (.500) These records are drawn from the applicable 1215 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WLWLW: Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading WLWLW irrespective of site order (San Antonio) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals: series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 63-19 (.768) series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 17-6 (.739) series record, NBA only, all rounds: 37-4 (.902) series record, NBA only, Finals round: 11-1 (.917) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 40-42 (.488) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 9-14 (.391) Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 23-18 (.561) Game 6 record, NBA only, Finals round: 6-6 (.500) These records are drawn from the applicable 1215 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WLWLW @ VVHHH: Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WLWLW with site order VVHHH (San Antonio) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals: series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 2-4 (.333) series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 1-3 (.250) series record, NBA only, all rounds: 0-0 (---) series record, NBA only, Finals round: 0-0 (---) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 1-5 (.167) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 0-4 (.000) Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 0-0 (---) Game 6 record, NBA only, Finals round: 0-0 (---) These records are drawn from the applicable 1215 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WLWLW @ VVHHH: Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WLWLW with site order VVHHH (San Antonio) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals: series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 2-4 (.333) series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 1-3 (.250) series record, NBA only, all rounds: 0-0 (---) series record, NBA only, Finals round: 0-0 (---) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 1-5 (.167) Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 0-4 (.000) Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 0-0 (---) Game 6 record, NBA only, Finals round: 0-0 (---) These records are drawn from the applicable 1215 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 NBA and NHL Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
* Heat are 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. * Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. * Under is 4-0 in Heat’s last four home games. * Under is 16-4-1 in Spurs’ last 21 road games.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. The three teams to rally from a 3-2 deficit with two consecutive home victories are the 1988 Los Angeles Lakers, the 1994 Houston Rockets and the 2010 Lakers.
2. San Antonio is shooting 44.2 percent from 3-point range in the series with G Gary Neal (12-for-24) joining Green in shooting superbly.
3. James is shooting 43.6 percent in the series, well below his regular-season mark of 56.5.
* Heat are 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. * Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. * Under is 4-0 in Heat’s last four home games. * Under is 16-4-1 in Spurs’ last 21 road games.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. The three teams to rally from a 3-2 deficit with two consecutive home victories are the 1988 Los Angeles Lakers, the 1994 Houston Rockets and the 2010 Lakers.
2. San Antonio is shooting 44.2 percent from 3-point range in the series with G Gary Neal (12-for-24) joining Green in shooting superbly.
3. James is shooting 43.6 percent in the series, well below his regular-season mark of 56.5.
Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 11-15-1 Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 32-11-1
Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7, especially one taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a .250 losing %), when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.
These results are not counting this seasons playoffs.
Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 11-15-1 Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 32-11-1
Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7, especially one taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a .250 losing %), when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.
These results are not counting this seasons playoffs.
I believe the most significant stat here is: HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ VVHHH:
Game 6 record, NBA only, Finals round: 5-4 (.556).
In the NBA finals, the team with home court advantage for the series is the team with the better record. With this format, that team will be the home team in game 6. Being that home court advantage is usually 4 1/2 points or more by itself, and since the game 6 home team (with the better record) will most times be perceived as the better team, the game 6 road team referred to in this stat woulfd probably have been a 4 1/2 point or more underdog. So, we're talking about a situation where the road team, usually a 4 1/2 point or more underdog, has a 5-4 SU record. Albeit not a large sample, I think that's impressive. The ATS record has to be at least that, and is probably better. Bottom line, good value on San Antonio ML, and decent at least (depending on what the exact ATS record is) value on San Antonio ATS.
I believe the most significant stat here is: HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ VVHHH:
Game 6 record, NBA only, Finals round: 5-4 (.556).
In the NBA finals, the team with home court advantage for the series is the team with the better record. With this format, that team will be the home team in game 6. Being that home court advantage is usually 4 1/2 points or more by itself, and since the game 6 home team (with the better record) will most times be perceived as the better team, the game 6 road team referred to in this stat woulfd probably have been a 4 1/2 point or more underdog. So, we're talking about a situation where the road team, usually a 4 1/2 point or more underdog, has a 5-4 SU record. Albeit not a large sample, I think that's impressive. The ATS record has to be at least that, and is probably better. Bottom line, good value on San Antonio ML, and decent at least (depending on what the exact ATS record is) value on San Antonio ATS.
S.A. is 36-18 Over as a dog, Miami is 7-0 Over after allowing 110+pts.Miami is 0-7 ATS at home off 3 straight road games. Miami on the ML-310 for me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
S.A. is 36-18 Over as a dog, Miami is 7-0 Over after allowing 110+pts.Miami is 0-7 ATS at home off 3 straight road games. Miami on the ML-310 for me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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