dubs disjointed, out of rhythm and turnovers everywhere in game 3 - yet they're still up 3 after first half and win the game by 19... and lets be clear, if you ever wanted to take the cavs, this is the perfect spot at +4. at home in a must win or they will be out of the series and you are getting 4 points (at some books) - common, that should be your play right? Not mine... the thing is, as I wrote in my game 2 post, everything has to go right for cavs to win, dubs have so much more margin for error plus they have Steve Kerr -that time out in q2 of game 3, Cavs surging, designing perfect play for open curry tres is case in point
Dubs -3 for 6 units - keep in mind games 1-2 I had 15+ units on dubs so this is a far less conviction play for.
I don't pretend to be an expert or professional, just a decent capper of games. Have a 2 items I could use some advice would appreciate if those with years of experience and whom I respect would impart some of their wisdom on me
Q1 - I see +400 odds on cavs win first half and dubs win the game. Am I crazy for really liking and really considering this play at these odds? 1 unit to win 4 - Cavs start strong and play like the champs they are only to eventually be broken by this monster known as the warriors
Q2 - I have 80 units risked on dubs to win series returns 28 units.... Lots of exposure but such was my conviction. Now, I see odds Cavs win game 3+Series at +1200. If you were in my shoes - would you hedge some exposure out. Something like 6 units to win 72.... I bet limit is prob 1-2 units but the general question of hedging my exposure holds as I can get +1000 odds on Cavs win series 4-3 and other similar types of plays
dubs disjointed, out of rhythm and turnovers everywhere in game 3 - yet they're still up 3 after first half and win the game by 19... and lets be clear, if you ever wanted to take the cavs, this is the perfect spot at +4. at home in a must win or they will be out of the series and you are getting 4 points (at some books) - common, that should be your play right? Not mine... the thing is, as I wrote in my game 2 post, everything has to go right for cavs to win, dubs have so much more margin for error plus they have Steve Kerr -that time out in q2 of game 3, Cavs surging, designing perfect play for open curry tres is case in point
Dubs -3 for 6 units - keep in mind games 1-2 I had 15+ units on dubs so this is a far less conviction play for.
I don't pretend to be an expert or professional, just a decent capper of games. Have a 2 items I could use some advice would appreciate if those with years of experience and whom I respect would impart some of their wisdom on me
Q1 - I see +400 odds on cavs win first half and dubs win the game. Am I crazy for really liking and really considering this play at these odds? 1 unit to win 4 - Cavs start strong and play like the champs they are only to eventually be broken by this monster known as the warriors
Q2 - I have 80 units risked on dubs to win series returns 28 units.... Lots of exposure but such was my conviction. Now, I see odds Cavs win game 3+Series at +1200. If you were in my shoes - would you hedge some exposure out. Something like 6 units to win 72.... I bet limit is prob 1-2 units but the general question of hedging my exposure holds as I can get +1000 odds on Cavs win series 4-3 and other similar types of plays
I always hedge when it's in my favor to make some loot:
First thing you have to admit to yourself is whether you are one to hedge when the scenario is significant? If you are then proceed...
Some people never hedge. I am assuming you are not one of them because why would you ask for opinion? But maybe you do not believe in hedging regularly and you are on the fence so these questions are fair.
Imo I would do exactly what you said and worse case if cavs win today and still lose the series you at least had a clear chance to be even or very close to it...
I always hedge when it's in my favor to make some loot:
First thing you have to admit to yourself is whether you are one to hedge when the scenario is significant? If you are then proceed...
Some people never hedge. I am assuming you are not one of them because why would you ask for opinion? But maybe you do not believe in hedging regularly and you are on the fence so these questions are fair.
Imo I would do exactly what you said and worse case if cavs win today and still lose the series you at least had a clear chance to be even or very close to it...
You need opinion from both cavs and golden backers because any golden backer will ultimately tell you no way... you need people that will be honest with you and not be biased just because warriors are in the drivers seat. These answers go long term.
You need opinion from both cavs and golden backers because any golden backer will ultimately tell you no way... you need people that will be honest with you and not be biased just because warriors are in the drivers seat. These answers go long term.
I always hedge when it's in my favor to make some loot:
First thing you have to admit to yourself is whether you are one to hedge when the scenario is significant? If you are then proceed...
Some people never hedge. I am assuming you are not one of them because why would you ask for opinion? But maybe you do not believe in hedging regularly and you are on the fence so these questions are fair.
Imo I would do exactly what you said and worse case if cavs win today and still lose the series you at least had a clear chance to be even or very close to it...
Cheers BPickin... in general, I do not hedge... and firmly believe Dubs win this series. After all, I have bet them for game 3 eh
but, 1) my units arent small so 80 is tons of exposure and 2) in tihs particular case, odds are so juicy that hedging will dent but not crush my profits. Would be silly not to seriously consider it....
I always hedge when it's in my favor to make some loot:
First thing you have to admit to yourself is whether you are one to hedge when the scenario is significant? If you are then proceed...
Some people never hedge. I am assuming you are not one of them because why would you ask for opinion? But maybe you do not believe in hedging regularly and you are on the fence so these questions are fair.
Imo I would do exactly what you said and worse case if cavs win today and still lose the series you at least had a clear chance to be even or very close to it...
Cheers BPickin... in general, I do not hedge... and firmly believe Dubs win this series. After all, I have bet them for game 3 eh
but, 1) my units arent small so 80 is tons of exposure and 2) in tihs particular case, odds are so juicy that hedging will dent but not crush my profits. Would be silly not to seriously consider it....
Q1) No, the bet is not crazy. There's a reason the Warriors opened -2.5 but PK 1h rather that -1 or -2. Oddmakers expext the Cavs to come out strong at home in the 1h but they also realize the Warriors are deeper and a strong 2h team and will probably pull away. Not saying the bet hits but it's worth a little coin.
Q2) Personally, i'm against high priced series bets in the first place so I would hedge regardless. I'm a die hard Warriors fan who believes they can and should sweep but as an inpartial capper (usually) I realize anything can happen. To each his own on this one though. You've to games in the pocket so suddenly those odds aren't bad at all and maybe it's worth letting it ride. BOL.
Q1) No, the bet is not crazy. There's a reason the Warriors opened -2.5 but PK 1h rather that -1 or -2. Oddmakers expext the Cavs to come out strong at home in the 1h but they also realize the Warriors are deeper and a strong 2h team and will probably pull away. Not saying the bet hits but it's worth a little coin.
Q2) Personally, i'm against high priced series bets in the first place so I would hedge regardless. I'm a die hard Warriors fan who believes they can and should sweep but as an inpartial capper (usually) I realize anything can happen. To each his own on this one though. You've to games in the pocket so suddenly those odds aren't bad at all and maybe it's worth letting it ride. BOL.
Q1) No, the bet is not crazy. There's a reason the Warriors opened -2.5 but PK 1h rather that -1 or -2. Oddmakers expext the Cavs to come out strong at home in the 1h but they also realize the Warriors are deeper and a strong 2h team and will probably pull away. Not saying the bet hits but it's worth a little coin.
Q2) Personally, i'm against high priced series bets in the first place so I would hedge regardless. I'm a die hard Warriors fan who believes they can and should sweep but as an inpartial capper (usually) I realize anything can happen. To each his own on this one though. You've to games in the pocket so suddenly those odds aren't bad at all and maybe it's worth letting it ride. BOL.
and you have explained my dilemma perfectly haha...
Q1) No, the bet is not crazy. There's a reason the Warriors opened -2.5 but PK 1h rather that -1 or -2. Oddmakers expext the Cavs to come out strong at home in the 1h but they also realize the Warriors are deeper and a strong 2h team and will probably pull away. Not saying the bet hits but it's worth a little coin.
Q2) Personally, i'm against high priced series bets in the first place so I would hedge regardless. I'm a die hard Warriors fan who believes they can and should sweep but as an inpartial capper (usually) I realize anything can happen. To each his own on this one though. You've to games in the pocket so suddenly those odds aren't bad at all and maybe it's worth letting it ride. BOL.
and you have explained my dilemma perfectly haha...
Inexperienced question but are the series odds available at halftime? Just thought of that and never bother to check. Either way I'd wait to see how game 3 goes. It will give you some answers.
Inexperienced question but are the series odds available at halftime? Just thought of that and never bother to check. Either way I'd wait to see how game 3 goes. It will give you some answers.
If they win the first half, my plan is to parlay to the W's in the second half
See how it goes
1 to 2 first half
2 to 4 second half essentially the same play? But if Cavs really roll them first half, I may get a little better odds.....
Not exactly - at 1.91 odds - you win .91 units on first half then you bet 1.91 units at 1.91 and win 1.74 units in 2nd half - so overall you will win a total of 2.65 units versus me winning 4.5 units... Then again I'm no math major;) In your favor, you get to judge the 1H game flow....
If they win the first half, my plan is to parlay to the W's in the second half
See how it goes
1 to 2 first half
2 to 4 second half essentially the same play? But if Cavs really roll them first half, I may get a little better odds.....
Not exactly - at 1.91 odds - you win .91 units on first half then you bet 1.91 units at 1.91 and win 1.74 units in 2nd half - so overall you will win a total of 2.65 units versus me winning 4.5 units... Then again I'm no math major;) In your favor, you get to judge the 1H game flow....
You need opinion from both cavs and golden backers because any golden backer will ultimately tell you no way... you need people that will be honest with you and not be biased just because warriors are in the drivers seat. These answers go long term.
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
You need opinion from both cavs and golden backers because any golden backer will ultimately tell you no way... you need people that will be honest with you and not be biased just because warriors are in the drivers seat. These answers go long term.
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