102 - 72 @ 58% for +22.8 Units
Mon 03/07
Portland Trailblazers +2
I want to point out something first: according to my model I have Orlando as a -8 point favorite in this matchup under normal circumstances. Obviously, this is as far from normal as you can get, as Orlando's stud center Superman Dwight is out for this contest. So the question we must ask ourselves is: Is Dwight Howard worth 6 points to this Magic team. Hmmm... That's an awful lot of points for one player. But I will argue that for this Magic squad, he is absolutely worth 6 points, if not more. This Magic offense and defense all revolve around Dwight Howard. On the offensive end, this team is dependent on throwing the ball in to him on the post, where he is either getting a quality shot or kicking-out to open 3PT shooters like Richardson, Anderson, and Nelson. On the defensive end, there isn’t a better shot blocker and an overall intimidating presence in the league, than Howard. He is often able to ‘neutralize’ an opposing squad’s center, while at the same time ‘roam’ the paint area and help out his teammates, who for the most part are all fairly mediocre defenders. (I’ll get to this in a bit). In any case, my point is that Howard is one of those players that means EVERYTHING to his team. There aren’t many like that in this league. We all know what happened to the Cavs, when they lost LeBron this season. And even though this is only one game, I feel that because they’re playing the Blazers, the loss of Howard will be really evident. Let me explain.
First of all, Blazers have been playing better in their last 2 games. With all the ‘new’ faces that have joined and rejoined this team it took them some time to ‘gel’. Now I feel they’re getting really close to playing well together. Last game against the Bobcats (yes I know it’s the lowly Bobcats, but how much different is this Howard-less Magic squad really?) Portland gave up only 69 points, holding Charlotte to 43% from the field and 1 for 10 from 3PT line. That’s the most important factor here, since Orlando is a ‘heavy’ 3PT shooting team. In addition, Blazers had 8 players that scored 7 or more points in that one – pretty balanced. Orlando, on the other hand, lost to the Bulls at home in their last game. They scored only 81 points on 44% from the field and 26% from 3PT line. What stood out though was the 50 to 30 rebounding difference (17 to 5 offensive boards) in favor of Chicago, and that’s with Howard in the lineup. Orlando is too reliant on Howard to clean-up the ‘boards’, but today they won’t have that luxury. How will this team do against a similar team to Chicago, that has very good size in the front-court? Hmmm. In addition, Blazers are refocused on ‘defense’ after their coach emphasized it after the loss to Houston Rockets last week. Defense, rebounding, size, depth – Portland has very similar team characteristics to the Bulls. Do I expect the same result as when Chicago came to play the Magic on Friday? You betcha!
Breaking down the matchups in this one, I couldn’t help and wonder where the scoring will come from for Orlando.
* Hedo Turkoglu? He has decent size but isn’t quick or shifty. Batum and/or Wallace will ‘eat him’ up. Oh, and the fact that he’s 2 for 12 (17%) for 5 TOTAL points in the last 3 games (ave 24 mpg) tells you what I think his impact will be tonight.
* Jameer Nelson? Nelson is a pretty good offensive player but he’s a big liability on defense. Andre Miller has very good size and strength for a PG and I see him taking advantage of that on the offensive end. Defensively, Nelson might be quicker, but having Aldridge and Camby behind him will enable Miller to play-up, take away the 3PT shot, and force Nelson to drive to the basket. I don’t see him being very successful tonight without Howard.
* Jason Richardson? He’s another player that relies on getting open looks and transition baskets. He’ll most likely be matched up with Wesley Matthews in this one. If I was McMillan, I would instruct Matthews to shadow Richardson no matter what. Richardson might be the only player on this Magic team that could potentially generate his own shot (even though he prefers not to play with his back to the basket), so it’s important not to give up any open looks to him early in the game. I really don’t see a need for Portland to double-team any player on this Magic squad, thus I would expect Matthews/Roy to be in Richardson’s ‘grill’ all game long. No open looks will make him force a number of shots, lower his confidence, and turn him into a perimeter ‘spectator’, as he’s not the type of a player to take over a game.
* Anderson and Bass? I grouped these 2 together because these are the guys that will make up the front-court for this Magic squad tonight. Bass is very undersized for a PF, at only 6’8”. Anderson is a bit bigger (6’10”) but makes his living on the ‘perimeter’ and not in the ‘trenches’. He has averaged only 1 offensive rebound in the last 4 games, in which he averaged almost 24 minutes per. Obviously he’ll get more minutes tonight (35+ I would assume, if he stays out of foul-trouble), so the best we can expect is 1.46 offensive rebounds out of him. Well, when you have Aldridge (6’11), Camby (6’11), Batum (6’8), and Wallace (6’8) crashing the boards all game long, I’m not sure how he’ll even get that ‘many’. Defensively, Aldridge is going to ‘own’ Anderson on the ‘block’, while Camby should be able to get a number of offensive boards and extend possessions for the Blazers.
I know that I broke-down the starters-matchups a bit but one other factor in play tonight is depth. With Howard out, Magic will have Q. Richardson, Redick, and maybe Arenas (he’s questionable) coming off the bench. Blazers, on the other hand, have Wallace, Roy, Fernandez, and Mills at their disposal. Clear advantage Portland here.