Why does that matter?
The Knicks are 5.5 out of the last playoff spot with 20 games left.
It doesn't matter if you've dismissed the Knicks playoff chances. When you cap a game like this, you consider if THEY'VE dismissed their chances. I can assure you, from every interview by every Knick player and coach, they all fully believe they have a shot.
So when do you take that shot?
Right now.
3/4 of the season has been a disaster, now a crop of very bad teams, like the last crop, are served up on a silver platter.
So we have
1) Knicks and fans and owner starved for a home win of any sort
2) A crop of bad teams awaiting you to make a run
3) An inspiring, gutsy win in Minny, the first after 7 losses
4) 5.5 out of the Eighth spot
5) Jazz coming East to the Garden.
So yes the Knicks will win given those conditions.
So now the spread.
As always, you pay an unreasonable premium with the Knicks so you have to play them sparingly. You can't be giving up all these points or taking on short lines night after night. This is one of those times to play them though.
The line is Jazz +6.5/7.
Will the Knicks cover that number?
Yes.
In the crop of games starting on 1/24, the Knicks won by an average of 23 PPG. Their next wins came when they blew out Denver by 27, beat the Pelicans by 7 and beat the Wolves by 12. Those are the Knicks last 7 wins. Aside from NO, when the Knicks win, they win big.
Why? They blow leads, big ones, and they know it.
So when they are going to beat you they stick their boot in your neck and really try to run away with it.
That is why we will lay the 7.
The Jazz? Like the Knicks, they are reeling having lost 4 in a row by an average of 15 a game including a horrendous 26 point loss to the Bucks. They have no reason to come into NY in this spot and take this game, and I don't think it will be close enough for 7 to concern me.
I also wanted to add the Felton had a big game (18 pts) against the Wolves after having a sitdown with Woodson that day. I don't care what you think of him, when you bet the Knicks or fade them, he matters. If he has any confidence and can give you 14/16, he will give his team confidence and they will win. He is one of the worst players on the team so when he is stepping up, other guys get very alarmed (as I "Good lord, even Felton is scoring and I'm not!") and start responding as well. We saw this in Minny two nights ago. This team doesn't go the way of Melo, but, in a strange sort of way, goes the way Raymond. It's only been one game, but if he has his confidence back for a Knicks to go on a winning streak, and it appears he might, that is great sign for this game.
Sometimes, ya gotta lay an ugly line to collect the cash. This ones ugly and is one of the ultra-rare times you'll see me lay more than 4. The conditions have to be very ripe for such a bet. They are tonight.
THE PICK:
KNICKS -6.5/-7 OVER JAZZ