Let me just preface this write-up by saying I'm having an absolutely horrible month in the NBA. Particularly the latter half of the month has been really unkind to me. That being said, I feel like I'm doing good work and I've just got to keep grinding this season out and hope it pays off in the long run. That's always been my mentality albeit it's a lot easier to convince myself of that when I'm winning on a consistent basis. Alright, enough self-loathing... onto the game at hand.
I said it back on day one, and I'll say it again. The Miami Heat will play the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals this season. Both of these teams know that this is a likely scenario. To make things even more intense this game will be broadcast on ESPN at prime time. These two factors will likely lead to two things. One, you can count on both teams to play with maximum effort - so don't worry about any look ahead angle or lack of motivation. Two, you can expect this game to have "playoff atmosphere". This second angle is important to my analysis on this game because one team is solid at running and defending half court sets and the other team isn't. Furthermore, one team boasts an elite defense and the other doesn't. Can you guess which is which?
A good measure of how a team performs in half court sets is assist to turnover ratio. This measures how well a team is at moving the ball on offense. (The top 4 teams in this category are Philadelphia (#1), San Antonio (#2), Milwaukee (#3) and Chicago(#4)). Besides Milwaukee - which is a bit of a surprise considering how fast they run - the other three teams are obviously exceptional passing teams and they all run excellent half court games. On the other side of this coin, the bottom four teams are New York (#27), Washington (#28), Detroit (#29) and the team with the lowest assist to turnover ratio in the entire NBA is Western Conference leading Oklahoma City (#30). Yeah, no shit that's surprising! Miami ranks right in the middle of the pack in this category, but considering how poor Oklahoma City is, they still have a huge edge in this department. In a half court game, defense at the rim is paramount. Miami ranks #1 in the NBA in opponent FG% at the rim allowing only 56.6% on 24.5 shots per game. It's important to note that the number of shots at the rim is almost as significant as the opponent's field goal percentage. This tells you not only how well a team is at forcing difficult shots in this zone, but how well they are at keeping teams out. In contrast to Miami, Oklahoma City ranks #9 in opponent FG% allowing 61.1%. However, they allow opponents to attempt 27.8 shots in this zone per game which is second highest in the NBA ahead of only Charlotte. Well bad news for OKC, Miami feasts at the rim. They generate 32% of their offense close to the basket and they look for the highest percentage shot while on offense. This fact can be derived statistically by looking at a teams percentage of points by two point shots plus free throws (Miami generates 83.4% of their offense with these shot types ranked 7th in the NBA. They're also 7th in points in the paint.
In summation, Miami has a better overall defense but in particular they're much better at defending the interior. They also have an advantage in turnovers. If you believe in the predicting power of the four factors (eFG%, TOR, ORR, FTR), Miami has a solid edge in eFG% and TOR which is said to account for about 70% of predicting the winner of a basketball game. OKC doesn't even compensate well in the other categories as they rank even or slightly worse in both ORR and FTR. Setting OKC as as short home favorite (below -3.5) suggests that oddsmakers believe Miami is the better team. I agree. The advanced statistics agree. The better team wins. 2u wager.
Let me just preface this write-up by saying I'm having an absolutely horrible month in the NBA. Particularly the latter half of the month has been really unkind to me. That being said, I feel like I'm doing good work and I've just got to keep grinding this season out and hope it pays off in the long run. That's always been my mentality albeit it's a lot easier to convince myself of that when I'm winning on a consistent basis. Alright, enough self-loathing... onto the game at hand.
I said it back on day one, and I'll say it again. The Miami Heat will play the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals this season. Both of these teams know that this is a likely scenario. To make things even more intense this game will be broadcast on ESPN at prime time. These two factors will likely lead to two things. One, you can count on both teams to play with maximum effort - so don't worry about any look ahead angle or lack of motivation. Two, you can expect this game to have "playoff atmosphere". This second angle is important to my analysis on this game because one team is solid at running and defending half court sets and the other team isn't. Furthermore, one team boasts an elite defense and the other doesn't. Can you guess which is which?
A good measure of how a team performs in half court sets is assist to turnover ratio. This measures how well a team is at moving the ball on offense. (The top 4 teams in this category are Philadelphia (#1), San Antonio (#2), Milwaukee (#3) and Chicago(#4)). Besides Milwaukee - which is a bit of a surprise considering how fast they run - the other three teams are obviously exceptional passing teams and they all run excellent half court games. On the other side of this coin, the bottom four teams are New York (#27), Washington (#28), Detroit (#29) and the team with the lowest assist to turnover ratio in the entire NBA is Western Conference leading Oklahoma City (#30). Yeah, no shit that's surprising! Miami ranks right in the middle of the pack in this category, but considering how poor Oklahoma City is, they still have a huge edge in this department. In a half court game, defense at the rim is paramount. Miami ranks #1 in the NBA in opponent FG% at the rim allowing only 56.6% on 24.5 shots per game. It's important to note that the number of shots at the rim is almost as significant as the opponent's field goal percentage. This tells you not only how well a team is at forcing difficult shots in this zone, but how well they are at keeping teams out. In contrast to Miami, Oklahoma City ranks #9 in opponent FG% allowing 61.1%. However, they allow opponents to attempt 27.8 shots in this zone per game which is second highest in the NBA ahead of only Charlotte. Well bad news for OKC, Miami feasts at the rim. They generate 32% of their offense close to the basket and they look for the highest percentage shot while on offense. This fact can be derived statistically by looking at a teams percentage of points by two point shots plus free throws (Miami generates 83.4% of their offense with these shot types ranked 7th in the NBA. They're also 7th in points in the paint.
In summation, Miami has a better overall defense but in particular they're much better at defending the interior. They also have an advantage in turnovers. If you believe in the predicting power of the four factors (eFG%, TOR, ORR, FTR), Miami has a solid edge in eFG% and TOR which is said to account for about 70% of predicting the winner of a basketball game. OKC doesn't even compensate well in the other categories as they rank even or slightly worse in both ORR and FTR. Setting OKC as as short home favorite (below -3.5) suggests that oddsmakers believe Miami is the better team. I agree. The advanced statistics agree. The better team wins. 2u wager.
I forgot to mention that despite both teams having yesterday off, Miami was able to coast over Detroit on Friday whereas OKC played a ridiculous double OT game against the T-Wolves in which their starters all logged huge minutes including 52mins for Durant and 50mins for Westbrook. Edge Miami in the fatigue department.
I forgot to mention that despite both teams having yesterday off, Miami was able to coast over Detroit on Friday whereas OKC played a ridiculous double OT game against the T-Wolves in which their starters all logged huge minutes including 52mins for Durant and 50mins for Westbrook. Edge Miami in the fatigue department.
My Man!! was thinking the same thing, however with the way our season has been going im thinking of fading myself. Gonna take MIA here as im seeing the same you are. I am also on the under. the heat defense is going to give OKC fits.
My Man!! was thinking the same thing, however with the way our season has been going im thinking of fading myself. Gonna take MIA here as im seeing the same you are. I am also on the under. the heat defense is going to give OKC fits.
1 point game after the first even though the Thunder shot 65% from the field thanks to a number of rotation mistakes by the Miami defense. I only expect Miami's D to improve and OKC's FG% to regress from this point forward.
1 point game after the first even though the Thunder shot 65% from the field thanks to a number of rotation mistakes by the Miami defense. I only expect Miami's D to improve and OKC's FG% to regress from this point forward.
67% shooting by OKC in the first half and they won the turnover battle 11-6. There's no way this continues in the second half. Heat will come back and make this a game.
67% shooting by OKC in the first half and they won the turnover battle 11-6. There's no way this continues in the second half. Heat will come back and make this a game.
67% shooting by OKC in the first half and they won the turnover battle 11-6. There's no way this continues in the second half. Heat will come back and make this a game.
67% shooting by OKC in the first half and they won the turnover battle 11-6. There's no way this continues in the second half. Heat will come back and make this a game.
... but this one is not over yet... heat gave up 10 easy points via turnovers and the 3 point foul on harden.... if they tighten up the defense, stop the turnovers, this should come down to the wire
... but this one is not over yet... heat gave up 10 easy points via turnovers and the 3 point foul on harden.... if they tighten up the defense, stop the turnovers, this should come down to the wire
... but this one is not over yet... heat gave up 10 easy points via turnovers and the 3 point foul on harden.... if they tighten up the defense, stop the turnovers, this should come down to the wire
My thoughts exactly. This game will be up for grabs by the 5 minute mark in the fourth quarter.
... but this one is not over yet... heat gave up 10 easy points via turnovers and the 3 point foul on harden.... if they tighten up the defense, stop the turnovers, this should come down to the wire
My thoughts exactly. This game will be up for grabs by the 5 minute mark in the fourth quarter.
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