__________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and are to win 1 unit on favs and to risk 1 unit on dogs.
I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) you are likely to see a positive return.
There's not a lot on the card for Thursday that interests me so this might be the only game I tangle with. Still debating whether to go with the side or the total.
Boston @ NY Yankees Under
Beckett has an FIP of under 3.6 in 3 of the L4 seasons. Although his ERA is at 6.35 this year, his FIP suggests that it should be lower. The one year that Beckett struggled ('06) saw his strikout rate dip and his HR rate increase -- both of those rates look good in his two starts this year. Even though Mussina's ERA has been a bit high in 3 of the L4 years, he hasn't had an FIP over 4.11. Mussina has seen a significant decrease in his K rate this year (3.3), although his BB rate is still strong (1.7). Boston (.750 OPS) and the Yankees (.753) have performed similarly vs. RH's this year.
__________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and are to win 1 unit on favs and to risk 1 unit on dogs.
I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) you are likely to see a positive return.
There's not a lot on the card for Thursday that interests me so this might be the only game I tangle with. Still debating whether to go with the side or the total.
Boston @ NY Yankees Under
Beckett has an FIP of under 3.6 in 3 of the L4 seasons. Although his ERA is at 6.35 this year, his FIP suggests that it should be lower. The one year that Beckett struggled ('06) saw his strikout rate dip and his HR rate increase -- both of those rates look good in his two starts this year. Even though Mussina's ERA has been a bit high in 3 of the L4 years, he hasn't had an FIP over 4.11. Mussina has seen a significant decrease in his K rate this year (3.3), although his BB rate is still strong (1.7). Boston (.750 OPS) and the Yankees (.753) have performed similarly vs. RH's this year.
emg2525 - Thanks for the heads-up on the ump. Good looking out.
After sleeping on this one again and hearing about this umpire I think I'm going to pass on this game. I may check back in after work or I may just wait until tomorrow. Hope you all have a successful Thursday.
emg2525 - Thanks for the heads-up on the ump. Good looking out.
After sleeping on this one again and hearing about this umpire I think I'm going to pass on this game. I may check back in after work or I may just wait until tomorrow. Hope you all have a successful Thursday.
I would like to start grinding out sports betting. I completely understand what it takes to "grind". Baseball obviously lends itself to long term betting strategy because the of amount of games and season length. I have some questions before I start making any substatial financial commitments. They are:
1. How many units should my bankroll be able to swing from your experience.
2. What do you mean by "Leans"
3. What key stats do you use when you are picking a bet in baseball.
4. Bravos/Marlins, Smoltz -155 vs Nolasco, away
I will be following your picks for a while. Thanks for the help and good luck.
I would like to start grinding out sports betting. I completely understand what it takes to "grind". Baseball obviously lends itself to long term betting strategy because the of amount of games and season length. I have some questions before I start making any substatial financial commitments. They are:
1. How many units should my bankroll be able to swing from your experience.
2. What do you mean by "Leans"
3. What key stats do you use when you are picking a bet in baseball.
4. Bravos/Marlins, Smoltz -155 vs Nolasco, away
I will be following your picks for a while. Thanks for the help and good luck.
wilsoa6 - First off, welcome. There are definitely other posters here that have more experience and expertise so please take any advice from me with a grain of salt.
1) I actually look at it the other direction. How much is your bankroll? I define bankroll by the amount of money that you are actually willing to lose and accept that it may be entirely wiped prior to making a bet. From there, I've heard people talk about a unit being anywhere from 1% to 10%. I think 2 to 3% is probably a good range to be in. That means you could start the year in a terrible slump and still be in the game (you would have to lose 35 to 50 units to go bust).
2. For me, a lean is defined as a game that I've looked at and feel one side has possible value over the other. In the case of the game above, when I initially capped the game I thought Boston and/or the under had slight value. After sleeping on it, looking at the line this morning, and finding out the info on the umpire, I decided there wasn't enough value in my mind to make a play on it.
3. I've tried lots of different stats over the last 3 or 4 years with off and on success with many. Currently, I'm using mostly sabermetric type metrics that supposedly trying to limit the "noise" of luck that can influence BABIP (batting average of balls in play). It seems to be working pretty well thus far but 40 games is way too small of sample size to know for sure how well its working. I'm always trying to understand new ways to find value and become better at analyzing games. Whether its from just watching a game, or reading an article, etc.
4. Not sure where the question is here......
I think opening threads and reading others' ideas and philosphies is a great way to get started. I would not advise just making bets on other peoples picks as you really have know idea how educated the person is in terms of the sport or betting industry. But I have found that you can learn about strategies that work (or don't work for others) and then use those to formulate a path for yourself.
One of the biggest things for me (it took me a year or so of casual handicapping) was to realize how hard it is to pick 55% winners. I used to think a monkey could do 50% how hard could it be to obtain 5% more. The sooner you can learn to respect each percentage point over 50, the sooner you can get serious about finding ways to get there.
Good luck and let me know if I can clarify any of the points above or answer other questions. Again, I still think of myself as someone in the growth stage though, so keep that in perspective as you read my thoughts/ramblings,etc.
wilsoa6 - First off, welcome. There are definitely other posters here that have more experience and expertise so please take any advice from me with a grain of salt.
1) I actually look at it the other direction. How much is your bankroll? I define bankroll by the amount of money that you are actually willing to lose and accept that it may be entirely wiped prior to making a bet. From there, I've heard people talk about a unit being anywhere from 1% to 10%. I think 2 to 3% is probably a good range to be in. That means you could start the year in a terrible slump and still be in the game (you would have to lose 35 to 50 units to go bust).
2. For me, a lean is defined as a game that I've looked at and feel one side has possible value over the other. In the case of the game above, when I initially capped the game I thought Boston and/or the under had slight value. After sleeping on it, looking at the line this morning, and finding out the info on the umpire, I decided there wasn't enough value in my mind to make a play on it.
3. I've tried lots of different stats over the last 3 or 4 years with off and on success with many. Currently, I'm using mostly sabermetric type metrics that supposedly trying to limit the "noise" of luck that can influence BABIP (batting average of balls in play). It seems to be working pretty well thus far but 40 games is way too small of sample size to know for sure how well its working. I'm always trying to understand new ways to find value and become better at analyzing games. Whether its from just watching a game, or reading an article, etc.
4. Not sure where the question is here......
I think opening threads and reading others' ideas and philosphies is a great way to get started. I would not advise just making bets on other peoples picks as you really have know idea how educated the person is in terms of the sport or betting industry. But I have found that you can learn about strategies that work (or don't work for others) and then use those to formulate a path for yourself.
One of the biggest things for me (it took me a year or so of casual handicapping) was to realize how hard it is to pick 55% winners. I used to think a monkey could do 50% how hard could it be to obtain 5% more. The sooner you can learn to respect each percentage point over 50, the sooner you can get serious about finding ways to get there.
Good luck and let me know if I can clarify any of the points above or answer other questions. Again, I still think of myself as someone in the growth stage though, so keep that in perspective as you read my thoughts/ramblings,etc.
I'm not a big Silva fan but I think he's better than Dinardo. The Mariners are one of the better teams in the league vs. LH's (.832 this year and a respectable .795 in '07) while Oakland hits just .686 vs. RH's.
I'm not a big Silva fan but I think he's better than Dinardo. The Mariners are one of the better teams in the league vs. LH's (.832 this year and a respectable .795 in '07) while Oakland hits just .686 vs. RH's.
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