#1: Chicago White Sox -149 Buehrle
is 9-0 with a 1.73 ERA in 12 interleague starts. He's been pitching
really well lately and his .315 BABIP (a bit unlucky) and +.47 E-F
indicate that he'll continue to regress to the positive. Against a
Dodgers lineup that averages 3.6 rpg against lefty-starters I expect
Buehrle to have a good game. Garland had a very lucky BABIP of .256 and
-.76 E-F, indicating that regression is in order. The White Sox are
batting .308 with .415 OBP off him. I expect the White Sox to bounce
back here as they haven't lost 2 in a row in the last 13 games.
#2: St Louis Cardinals -119 A
similar situation here as Wesbrook has an unlucky BABIP of .325 and
+1.78 E-F, indicating that regression to the positive is in order. He
has pitched a tremendous game his last time out and I expect him to
carry that over against a KC squad which is in a hitting slump right
now. KC is countering with Adcock, who is making his first start out of
the bullpen this season. He has -2.42 E-F indicating a regression to
the negative is in order. With a 1.08 HR/9 ratio and a 90% LOB%
(unsustainable), I expect him to give up some runs to the best hitting
team in the majors. Cards have better hitting, better starting pitching
(slightly), and an advantage in the bullpen. I'll back them at this
price, even though they're on the road here. #3: OVER 7.5 DET/PIT Scherzer
is a big 'regression' candidate, with a -1.37 E-F. His FIP is 4.18
(95th in the league). Scherzer has a terrible 1.25 HR/9 ratio and a
very lucky 89% LOB%. Against a Pirates team that has a wOBA of .365
(2nd best) over the last week or so and who have scored 20 runs in the
past 3 games, I expect Scherzer to give up some runs. Last time he
faced the Pirates (back in 2009) he gave up 7 hits and 5 ER's in 5.3
innings of work, with 5 K's to 4 BB's. Sure it was awhile ago since
that last start, but it won't be the first time that Pirates hitters are
seeing him. Correia is a very mediocre pitcher with a 4.36 FIP and
4.23 xFIP. He has a very lucky BABIP of .266 and -.39 E-F, indicating
that regression is in order. With a mediocre 1.85 K/BB ratio and 1.11
HR/9 ratio, he's a type of a pitcher that is ideal for a struggling
lineup like the Tigers. Miguel Cabrera is the only hitter that has
faced Correia in the past, and he is 5 for 10 off him with 1 HR and 5
RBI. Even so, Correia has given up 10 ER's and 3 HR"s in his last 2
starts. I expect him to give up some runs today and turn it over to the
bullpe in the 6th inning. Speaking of bullpens, both bullpens have
been terrible ove the past week, with Pirates pen sporting a 5.49 ERA /
6.41 FIP and Tigers with a 13.50 ERA / 6.81 FIP. I like this one to
sail over the posted total. #4: Chicago Cubs +135 (5 innings ONLY) I
don't trust Chicago's bullpen here so will play this one for 5 innings
only. Zambrano is in a 'bounce-back' game here as he is coming off a
terrible 6th inning in his last start against Cincy. He was working on a
1-hiiter prior to that, but completely fell apart. I expect him to
pitch well today against a Red Sox lineup that is batting .161 off him
in 56 plate appearances. I know Red Sox are the hottest hitting team
right now, but Cubs aren't too far behind. Chicago will get to face
Aceves, a bullpen guy making a start due to an injury to Dice-K. Aceves
has a 5.32 FIP/4.72 xFIP, a very lucky .173 BABIP, and -2.72 E-F. All
this indicates major regression to the mean for him. His terrible 1.56
HR/9 ratio and poor 1.50 K/BB ratio are additional factors that make
this a great scenario to get 'rocked' today. We have a scenario with 2
hot offenses, but a big difference in starting pitching. I'll grab the +
value with the Cubs for the first 5 innings here. #5: Atlanta Braves -120 As
good as Pineiro has been, his advanced stats tell us a different story.
He has a 3.89 FIP (#78) and 3.94 xFIP (#90) on the season. With a
lucky .253 BABIP and -1.91 E-F (5th highest to the negative) I'd expect
him to regress back to the mean at some point soon. Why not against an
Atlanta team against which he has a life-time ERA of 4.56 and WHIP of
1.4. In comparison, Hanson has never faced this Angels lineup and thus
has an advantage. Hanson has a FIP of 2.77 (#23) and xFIP of 2.85
(#11). He also has a lucky BABIP of .250 on the season, but the fact
that he's never faced any of the Angels hitters, should keep his stats
from 'regressing' too much in this one. Neither lineup is hitting well
righ tnow, but with a big advantage with the bullpens (Braves ERA 1.62
last week / Angels 7.62) and with starting pitching, I'll back the
Braves in this one. (Keep in mind that Kendrick might be out for this
one for the Angels, and Heyward is expected to be back in the lineup for
the Braves)
Good luck!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
-------------------------------------------------------------- 'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
#1: Chicago White Sox -149 Buehrle
is 9-0 with a 1.73 ERA in 12 interleague starts. He's been pitching
really well lately and his .315 BABIP (a bit unlucky) and +.47 E-F
indicate that he'll continue to regress to the positive. Against a
Dodgers lineup that averages 3.6 rpg against lefty-starters I expect
Buehrle to have a good game. Garland had a very lucky BABIP of .256 and
-.76 E-F, indicating that regression is in order. The White Sox are
batting .308 with .415 OBP off him. I expect the White Sox to bounce
back here as they haven't lost 2 in a row in the last 13 games.
#2: St Louis Cardinals -119 A
similar situation here as Wesbrook has an unlucky BABIP of .325 and
+1.78 E-F, indicating that regression to the positive is in order. He
has pitched a tremendous game his last time out and I expect him to
carry that over against a KC squad which is in a hitting slump right
now. KC is countering with Adcock, who is making his first start out of
the bullpen this season. He has -2.42 E-F indicating a regression to
the negative is in order. With a 1.08 HR/9 ratio and a 90% LOB%
(unsustainable), I expect him to give up some runs to the best hitting
team in the majors. Cards have better hitting, better starting pitching
(slightly), and an advantage in the bullpen. I'll back them at this
price, even though they're on the road here. #3: OVER 7.5 DET/PIT Scherzer
is a big 'regression' candidate, with a -1.37 E-F. His FIP is 4.18
(95th in the league). Scherzer has a terrible 1.25 HR/9 ratio and a
very lucky 89% LOB%. Against a Pirates team that has a wOBA of .365
(2nd best) over the last week or so and who have scored 20 runs in the
past 3 games, I expect Scherzer to give up some runs. Last time he
faced the Pirates (back in 2009) he gave up 7 hits and 5 ER's in 5.3
innings of work, with 5 K's to 4 BB's. Sure it was awhile ago since
that last start, but it won't be the first time that Pirates hitters are
seeing him. Correia is a very mediocre pitcher with a 4.36 FIP and
4.23 xFIP. He has a very lucky BABIP of .266 and -.39 E-F, indicating
that regression is in order. With a mediocre 1.85 K/BB ratio and 1.11
HR/9 ratio, he's a type of a pitcher that is ideal for a struggling
lineup like the Tigers. Miguel Cabrera is the only hitter that has
faced Correia in the past, and he is 5 for 10 off him with 1 HR and 5
RBI. Even so, Correia has given up 10 ER's and 3 HR"s in his last 2
starts. I expect him to give up some runs today and turn it over to the
bullpe in the 6th inning. Speaking of bullpens, both bullpens have
been terrible ove the past week, with Pirates pen sporting a 5.49 ERA /
6.41 FIP and Tigers with a 13.50 ERA / 6.81 FIP. I like this one to
sail over the posted total. #4: Chicago Cubs +135 (5 innings ONLY) I
don't trust Chicago's bullpen here so will play this one for 5 innings
only. Zambrano is in a 'bounce-back' game here as he is coming off a
terrible 6th inning in his last start against Cincy. He was working on a
1-hiiter prior to that, but completely fell apart. I expect him to
pitch well today against a Red Sox lineup that is batting .161 off him
in 56 plate appearances. I know Red Sox are the hottest hitting team
right now, but Cubs aren't too far behind. Chicago will get to face
Aceves, a bullpen guy making a start due to an injury to Dice-K. Aceves
has a 5.32 FIP/4.72 xFIP, a very lucky .173 BABIP, and -2.72 E-F. All
this indicates major regression to the mean for him. His terrible 1.56
HR/9 ratio and poor 1.50 K/BB ratio are additional factors that make
this a great scenario to get 'rocked' today. We have a scenario with 2
hot offenses, but a big difference in starting pitching. I'll grab the +
value with the Cubs for the first 5 innings here. #5: Atlanta Braves -120 As
good as Pineiro has been, his advanced stats tell us a different story.
He has a 3.89 FIP (#78) and 3.94 xFIP (#90) on the season. With a
lucky .253 BABIP and -1.91 E-F (5th highest to the negative) I'd expect
him to regress back to the mean at some point soon. Why not against an
Atlanta team against which he has a life-time ERA of 4.56 and WHIP of
1.4. In comparison, Hanson has never faced this Angels lineup and thus
has an advantage. Hanson has a FIP of 2.77 (#23) and xFIP of 2.85
(#11). He also has a lucky BABIP of .250 on the season, but the fact
that he's never faced any of the Angels hitters, should keep his stats
from 'regressing' too much in this one. Neither lineup is hitting well
righ tnow, but with a big advantage with the bullpens (Braves ERA 1.62
last week / Angels 7.62) and with starting pitching, I'll back the
Braves in this one. (Keep in mind that Kendrick might be out for this
one for the Angels, and Heyward is expected to be back in the lineup for
the Braves)
Good luck!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
-------------------------------------------------------------- 'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
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