The first total I like today is MIL/COL O 10. Both starters
have era's pushing 5 overall with both well over 5 L3. MIL has 8 overs
to 2 unders L10 and COL has 6 overs to 4 unders. Ad to that the ump is
Ed Rapuano and he's an over machine this year with 13 of his 17 behind
the plate going over the number and an average of 10.95 runs per
contest.
Also adding BOS+145 and the PIRATES-110 I'll spare you the re-posting of my writeups from the "Hot Lines" article
The first total I like today is MIL/COL O 10. Both starters
have era's pushing 5 overall with both well over 5 L3. MIL has 8 overs
to 2 unders L10 and COL has 6 overs to 4 unders. Ad to that the ump is
Ed Rapuano and he's an over machine this year with 13 of his 17 behind
the plate going over the number and an average of 10.95 runs per
contest.
Also adding BOS+145 and the PIRATES-110 I'll spare you the re-posting of my writeups from the "Hot Lines" article
that's my point...i think it takes timmy a while to settle in and he's better in the later innings.
No, my point is that those stats are an anomaly and I don't think they're statistically significant. I don't believe you can deduct that it takes Timmy time to settle in because he has a 3.30 era in first 5 and 2.40 in 6-9...I'm pretty sure when you look at his CAREER stats his ERA gets a bit 'worse' the further he goes in the game (that's the typical effect for all the pitchers as batters typically do a little better after a couple of times through the order)
that's my point...i think it takes timmy a while to settle in and he's better in the later innings.
No, my point is that those stats are an anomaly and I don't think they're statistically significant. I don't believe you can deduct that it takes Timmy time to settle in because he has a 3.30 era in first 5 and 2.40 in 6-9...I'm pretty sure when you look at his CAREER stats his ERA gets a bit 'worse' the further he goes in the game (that's the typical effect for all the pitchers as batters typically do a little better after a couple of times through the order)
not going calculate all that but i have noticed it this year and seems like a signficant enough trend to me....like you said, it's very uncommon, esp for 1.5 years...maybe longer.
not going calculate all that but i have noticed it this year and seems like a signficant enough trend to me....like you said, it's very uncommon, esp for 1.5 years...maybe longer.
not going calculate all that but i have noticed it this year and seems like a signficant enough trend to me....like you said, it's very uncommon, esp for 1.5 years...maybe longer.
OK, let me know where you're getting these 'by inning' numbers and I'll calculate it.
not going calculate all that but i have noticed it this year and seems like a signficant enough trend to me....like you said, it's very uncommon, esp for 1.5 years...maybe longer.
OK, let me know where you're getting these 'by inning' numbers and I'll calculate it.
Damn FISH fell short. WHY DIDN'T YA WARN ME BOD'S ?? lolol
j.k bro I was a day late and a dollar short I guess. May try to get it back tomorrow. I have Bruce Chen deja vu saying this but Javier Vazquez is dealing so FLA as pups may be alright.
Hey here is some info on the CFL game for tonight. Not locked in but have a few leans. Nothing I would really recommend other than maybe MON FH-6 or the U 53.5 for the game. Still better games to come though.
Damn FISH fell short. WHY DIDN'T YA WARN ME BOD'S ?? lolol
j.k bro I was a day late and a dollar short I guess. May try to get it back tomorrow. I have Bruce Chen deja vu saying this but Javier Vazquez is dealing so FLA as pups may be alright.
Hey here is some info on the CFL game for tonight. Not locked in but have a few leans. Nothing I would really recommend other than maybe MON FH-6 or the U 53.5 for the game. Still better games to come though.
Damn FISH fell short. WHY DIDN'T YA WARN ME BOD'S ?? lolol
j.k bro I was a day late and a dollar short I guess. May try to get it back tomorrow. I have Bruce Chen deja vu saying this but Javier Vazquez is dealing so FLA as pups may be alright.
Hey here is some info on the CFL game for tonight. Not locked in but have a few leans. Nothing I would really recommend other than maybe MON FH-6 or the U 53.5 for the game. Still better games to come though.
Damn FISH fell short. WHY DIDN'T YA WARN ME BOD'S ?? lolol
j.k bro I was a day late and a dollar short I guess. May try to get it back tomorrow. I have Bruce Chen deja vu saying this but Javier Vazquez is dealing so FLA as pups may be alright.
Hey here is some info on the CFL game for tonight. Not locked in but have a few leans. Nothing I would really recommend other than maybe MON FH-6 or the U 53.5 for the game. Still better games to come though.
Let's
get the basics out of the way first. Kershaw has a sick 10.13 K/9
ratio, 4.20 K/BB ratio, 2.45 FIP (#5) and 2.68 xFIP (#4) with a 2.6 tERA
(#8). The guy is a super-stud in all sense of the word. He has beaten
Arizona 4 straight times and should be 'fresh' here as he only threw 8
pitches in the All-Star Game. Saunders on the other hand has a measly
1.45 K/BB ratio, 4.79 FIP (#175 out of around 210 starting pitchers in
the league), 4.36 xFIP (#159) and a horrible 5.8 tERA (#192). He has a
21% LD rate (ave is 18%) with a -0.93 E-F indicating that further
regression is in the 'cards' for him. The bottom line is that the
difference in starting pitching is huge here. One thing about Kershaw is
that his home ERA is 1.88 while his road ERA is at 4.93. Hmm...that's
scary right? Well, let's use advanced stats to decipher this. In all
actuallity, Kershaw's road xFIP of 2.55 is even better than his home
xFIP of 2.78. A very unlucky road BABIP of .346 and a LOB% of 64.4% (72%
is average) contributed to his inflated ERA. I'm not concerned, and I
expect a rested Kershaw to have a great outing today. He is 4-1 lifetime
against the 'Snakes' with a 2.23 ERA and 1.1 WHIP, allowing 1 ER in his
last 3 starts against them. Saunders, on the other hand is 1-3 against
the Dodgers, and has allowed 22 hits, 2 HR's, and 6 BB's in his last 3
starts against them, 18 innings of work. He only gave up 7 ER's though,
indicating that he was fairly 'lucky'. Even though Arizona has a better
bulpen in this matchup, both pens are rested and I wouldn't be surprised
to see Kershaw go 7 or 8 innings in this one. Dodgers is the play.
#2: UNDER 8 BOS/TBR +107
David
Price is a stud with top 20 advanced stats in xFIP, FIP and tERA. I
expect him to pitch well against the Red Sox, as he has a 3.4 ERA and
1.2 WHIP against them in his career. He's rested and should have success
in this one. Miller doesn't have the same statistical accolades as
Price, but he's been pretty steady not allowing more than 3 ER's in any
of his 4 starts. He hasn't faced the Rays since 2009 and Rays'
unfamiliarity with him is a nice advantage that he has on the mound.
BoSox have the #4 ranked BP if Miller runs into trouble. Rays have a
poor BP (#26) but I expect Price to go at least 7 in this one. Trop is
the worst 'hitters park' in the majors and my model has this one at 6.5
total runs. At this number, it would take a total of 9 to lose this one.
The odds have been rising in Tampa's favor even though 70%+ are on
Boston. It seems that Vegas is expecting Price to pitch a 'gem' and win
today's game, thus favoring the UNDER. The O/U is 11-18 in Boston's
games against lefties and 14-20 when facing a team with a winning
record. The O/U is 11-30 in Tampa's home games this year and 11-13
against lefty starters. First game back from the All-Star break for
these players, and I expect the pitching to 'shine' in this one.
Good luck!
I was still contemplating Giants, but I'll pass there. Card's final boys! Good luck!
Let's
get the basics out of the way first. Kershaw has a sick 10.13 K/9
ratio, 4.20 K/BB ratio, 2.45 FIP (#5) and 2.68 xFIP (#4) with a 2.6 tERA
(#8). The guy is a super-stud in all sense of the word. He has beaten
Arizona 4 straight times and should be 'fresh' here as he only threw 8
pitches in the All-Star Game. Saunders on the other hand has a measly
1.45 K/BB ratio, 4.79 FIP (#175 out of around 210 starting pitchers in
the league), 4.36 xFIP (#159) and a horrible 5.8 tERA (#192). He has a
21% LD rate (ave is 18%) with a -0.93 E-F indicating that further
regression is in the 'cards' for him. The bottom line is that the
difference in starting pitching is huge here. One thing about Kershaw is
that his home ERA is 1.88 while his road ERA is at 4.93. Hmm...that's
scary right? Well, let's use advanced stats to decipher this. In all
actuallity, Kershaw's road xFIP of 2.55 is even better than his home
xFIP of 2.78. A very unlucky road BABIP of .346 and a LOB% of 64.4% (72%
is average) contributed to his inflated ERA. I'm not concerned, and I
expect a rested Kershaw to have a great outing today. He is 4-1 lifetime
against the 'Snakes' with a 2.23 ERA and 1.1 WHIP, allowing 1 ER in his
last 3 starts against them. Saunders, on the other hand is 1-3 against
the Dodgers, and has allowed 22 hits, 2 HR's, and 6 BB's in his last 3
starts against them, 18 innings of work. He only gave up 7 ER's though,
indicating that he was fairly 'lucky'. Even though Arizona has a better
bulpen in this matchup, both pens are rested and I wouldn't be surprised
to see Kershaw go 7 or 8 innings in this one. Dodgers is the play.
#2: UNDER 8 BOS/TBR +107
David
Price is a stud with top 20 advanced stats in xFIP, FIP and tERA. I
expect him to pitch well against the Red Sox, as he has a 3.4 ERA and
1.2 WHIP against them in his career. He's rested and should have success
in this one. Miller doesn't have the same statistical accolades as
Price, but he's been pretty steady not allowing more than 3 ER's in any
of his 4 starts. He hasn't faced the Rays since 2009 and Rays'
unfamiliarity with him is a nice advantage that he has on the mound.
BoSox have the #4 ranked BP if Miller runs into trouble. Rays have a
poor BP (#26) but I expect Price to go at least 7 in this one. Trop is
the worst 'hitters park' in the majors and my model has this one at 6.5
total runs. At this number, it would take a total of 9 to lose this one.
The odds have been rising in Tampa's favor even though 70%+ are on
Boston. It seems that Vegas is expecting Price to pitch a 'gem' and win
today's game, thus favoring the UNDER. The O/U is 11-18 in Boston's
games against lefties and 14-20 when facing a team with a winning
record. The O/U is 11-30 in Tampa's home games this year and 11-13
against lefty starters. First game back from the All-Star break for
these players, and I expect the pitching to 'shine' in this one.
Good luck!
I was still contemplating Giants, but I'll pass there. Card's final boys! Good luck!
I think its very plausible that some (very few) pitchers are better in the later innings than the first few. Some pitchers pitch differently and try to "trick" batters for the later innings. Pineda being one. Pineda doesn't dial up his fastball until the 2nd or even 3rd time through the lineup. I've never seen any stats or even tried to look them up but I'm interested in seeing the results of Lincecum's career stats.
I think its very plausible that some (very few) pitchers are better in the later innings than the first few. Some pitchers pitch differently and try to "trick" batters for the later innings. Pineda being one. Pineda doesn't dial up his fastball until the 2nd or even 3rd time through the lineup. I've never seen any stats or even tried to look them up but I'm interested in seeing the results of Lincecum's career stats.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.