Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Pittsburgh Pirates 47-43 (52%) @ Houston Astros 30-62 (33%)
J.
Karstens, starting for Pittsburgh Pirates, has a FIP of 4.71 (#172 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.82 (#85 in MLB), and tERA of 4.97 (#162 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .24, LOB% of 88%, and E-F of -2.13. He has a K/BB ratio of
3.57, with a WHIP of 1.07, and opponent BA of .241. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 38% for a 1.14 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 14%.
B. Myers, starting for Houston Astros, has a
FIP of 5.05 (#190 in MLB), xFIP of 4.06 (#117 in MLB), and tERA of 4.91
(#156 in MLB), with a BABIP of .283, LOB% of 72%, and E-F of -0.17. He
has a K/BB ratio of 2.27, with a WHIP of 1.37, and opponent BA of .268.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 40% for a 1.08
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 15%.
Pittsburgh Pirates have the #10
bullpen, #23 offense, and are rated #7 in fielding. They have a road
record of 24-21 (53%), ranked #8 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Houston
Astros have the #25 bullpen, #20 offense, and are rated #28 in
fielding. They have a home record of 14-33 (30%), ranked #30 in MLB and
have Lost 4 in a row.
Myers is 1-5 at home this year. Pirates
got 13 hits and 5 runs off him in 6 innings earlier this year. Houston
is 6-13 in his starts this year. Karstens hasn't allowed more than 3
ER's in 14 straight starts.
Odds: PIT +101 (50%) HOU -107 (52%) O/U = 7.5
Lean: none
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Milwaukee Brewers 49-44 (53%) @ Colorado Rockies 44-48 (48%)
C.
Narveson, starting for Milwaukee Brewers, has a FIP of 3.53 (#60 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.51 (#45 in MLB), and tERA of 4.48 (#124 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .319, LOB% of 69%, and E-F of 1.21. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.23, with a WHIP of 1.46, and opponent BA of .265. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 25%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 31% for a 1.42 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 9%.
J. Nicasio, starting for Colorado Rockies, has
a FIP of 4.44 (#147 in MLB), xFIP of 3.61 (#58 in MLB), and tERA of
5.72 (#191 in MLB), with a BABIP of .313, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.47.
He has a K/BB ratio of 2.62, with a WHIP of 1.41, and opponent BA of
.28. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 34% for a
1.28 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 15%.
Milwaukee Brewers have the
#7 bullpen, #7 offense, and are rated #13 in fielding. They have a road
record of 16-30 (35%), ranked #27 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Colorado
Rockies have the #13 bullpen, #12 offense, and are rated #14 in
fielding. They have a home record of 23-22 (51%), ranked #17 in MLB and
have Won 1 in a row.
Surprisingly Nicasio has a 2.08 ERA at home
(STL, LAD, SD, KC) versus 9.0 on the road (SF, CLE, NYY, ATL).
Obviously the sample size is very small and it seems to be a bit of a
'fluke'. Nicasio has never faced these Brewers 'bats'. Brewers have
won 6 of Narveson's last 7 starts. Milwaukke though, has lost 11 out of
their last 14 roadies. Rockies are 14-3 at home against the Brewers.
Odds: MIL +115 (47%) COL -122 (55%) O/U = 9.5
Lean: OVER
=======================================
Los Angeles Dodgers 41-51 (45%) @ Arizona Diamondbacks 49-43 (53%)
C.
Kershaw, starting for Los Angeles Dodgers, has a FIP of 2.45 (#5 in
MLB), xFIP of 2.68 (#4 in MLB), and tERA of 2.56 (#8 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .284, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.58. He has a K/BB ratio of 4.2,
with a WHIP of 1.05, and opponent BA of .211. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 39% for a 1.1 GB/FB ratio, and
a HR/FB of 7%.
J. Saunders, starting for Arizona Diamondbacks,
has a FIP of 4.79 (#175 in MLB), xFIP of 4.36 (#159 in MLB), and tERA of
5.78 (#192 in MLB), with a BABIP of .282, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of
-0.93. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.45, with a WHIP of 1.38, and opponent BA
of .265. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 42%, FB%: 37%
for a 1.16 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.
Los Angeles Dodgers
have the #19 bullpen, #22 offense, and are rated #15 in fielding. They
have a road record of 18-24 (43%), ranked #21 in MLB and have Won 4 in a
row.
Arizona Diamondbacks have the #15 bullpen, #9 offense, and
are rated #6 in fielding. They have a home record of 23-19 (55%), ranked
#11 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Kershaw won 4 straight
against Arizona. His ERA is above 4 away from home. Saunders' ERA is
4.94 at home vs 3.06 on the road.
Odds: LAD -119 (54%) ARI +112 (47%) O/U = 8
Lean: Dodgers
=======================================
San Francisco Giants 53-40 (57%) @ San Diego Padres 40-53 (43%)
T.
Lincecum, starting for San Francisco Giants, has a FIP of 2.72 (#12 in
MLB), xFIP of 2.93 (#9 in MLB), and tERA of 3 (#11 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .297, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of 0.34. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.93,
with a WHIP of 1.2, and opponent BA of .223. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 31% for a 1.62 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB
of 7%.
D. Moseley, starting for San Diego Padres, has a FIP of
3.93 (#102 in MLB), xFIP of 4.14 (#131 in MLB), and tERA of 3.79 (#59 in
MLB), with a BABIP of .274, LOB% of 70%, and E-F of -0.72. He has a
K/BB ratio of 1.69, with a WHIP of 1.29, and opponent BA of .251. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 32% for a 1.57
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
San Francisco Giants have the #3
bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #8 in fielding. They have a road
record of 25-24 (51%), ranked #12 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.
San
Diego Padres have the #2 bullpen, #29 offense, and are rated #18 in
fielding. They have a home record of 19-28 (40%), ranked #29 in MLB and
have Lost 6 in a row.
Lincecum is 1-1 against SD this year. He
has an ERA of 3.0 off him in those 2 starts. The Padres have lost 5
straight when Moseley starts. His last start prior to the ASB was @ SF,
where he gave up 5 hits and 4 ER's in 7.1 innings. He did have 9 K's
to only 1 BB in that outing.
Odds: SFG -133 (57%) SDP +125 (44%) O/U = 6
Lean: Giants and UNDER.
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Hey Bodio,
I also wanted to add that The Freak "Timmy" loves this umpire tonight Ted Barrett: The freak Timmy has thrown two complete games in his career with this umpire behind home plate and they were both shutouts 2-0 against the mets in 07/2010 and 7-0 against sd in 2008. He loves this umpire.