I'm debating whether or not to unload on Koscheck at +190 v.s. St. Pierre, or to do the smart thing and use money management and make it a "normal" play.
Here's my reasoning:
Koscheck absolutely dominated Sanchez. Granted, it was perhaps the most boring fight in UFC history, but there is no denying that Kos went into that fight with a gameplan and executed it to perfection. Nobody had ever beaten Diego, let alone make him look that "scared" or "tentative". The bottom line is that Kos is one hungry, determined, talented fighter who has improved his stand-up so much, that he really has no noticable weakness. On the other hand, IMO, I don't think St. Pierre has the hunger anymore. He's already been on the top and lost his title as a -900 favorite, much to my liking as I hit on Serra at +750 that night. I just think when St. Pierre beat Hughes, that was it for him, it was more about beating Hughes and avenging the earlier defeat than it was about winning the title.
I think the stand-up is pretty close between these two. If Serra can beat St. Pierre standing up, one better believe Kos can. And on the ground, Kos is a wrestling freak and should be able to overpower GSP.
I'm debating whether or not to unload on Koscheck at +190 v.s. St. Pierre, or to do the smart thing and use money management and make it a "normal" play.
Here's my reasoning:
Koscheck absolutely dominated Sanchez. Granted, it was perhaps the most boring fight in UFC history, but there is no denying that Kos went into that fight with a gameplan and executed it to perfection. Nobody had ever beaten Diego, let alone make him look that "scared" or "tentative". The bottom line is that Kos is one hungry, determined, talented fighter who has improved his stand-up so much, that he really has no noticable weakness. On the other hand, IMO, I don't think St. Pierre has the hunger anymore. He's already been on the top and lost his title as a -900 favorite, much to my liking as I hit on Serra at +750 that night. I just think when St. Pierre beat Hughes, that was it for him, it was more about beating Hughes and avenging the earlier defeat than it was about winning the title.
I think the stand-up is pretty close between these two. If Serra can beat St. Pierre standing up, one better believe Kos can. And on the ground, Kos is a wrestling freak and should be able to overpower GSP.
The Koscheck/Sanchez fight was a wrestler with decent striking against a grappler with no striking. Kos knew he couldnt beat Diego on the ground, he would get submitted, so he stood up where Diego is AWFUL. At that, Kos still didnt push the action. He pointed Diego to death. Diego was never in trouble...never. And this was against a fighter that just about retired due to postive blood test results for Hepatitus, found out the day before the fight that it was not, then fought with a nasty staff infection. His head was nowhere near the octagon.
The Serra/GSP fight is what it is. GSP, along with the rest of the world, paid no mind to Serra. And to say that Serra "stood up" with GSP is not really correct. It didnt last long enough for that to be determined. He landed 1 shot. My 14 daughter could put us down with 1 shot if landed on the correct spot.
There is not enough information to say "GSP is not hungry anymore". Is Franklin not hungry anymore? How about Liddell? How about any other fighter that lost 1 fight? GSP wasnt hungry for a reality show winner, little better than .500 fighter. I can assure you GSP will be itching to go in this fight. We cant go into the psyche of a fighter of why they beat a person ie Matt Hughes. But dont forget that he pummeled one of the greatest of all time.
If Kos was hesitant to push the pace with a fighter that has zero stand up, how do you think he is going to feel with constant, maddening pressure from GSP? GSP will push the pace! GSP will strike at will. He will be a little more cautious due to the 1 punch of Serra's, but nontheless, he will engage. Kos will back peddle looking to outpoint GSP just like Diego. If Kos gets a takedown, GSP is a BB in BJJ, you think he is uncomfortable there? No. This is going to be a lopsided victory for GSP.
This is a HUGE step up in competition for Kos.
Kos' past fights:
Best opponent - Diego..then who? Luke Cummo?
GSP's pat fights:
Karo Parisyan
Jason Miller
Matt Hughes (2)
Frank Trigg
Sean Sherk
BJ Penn
Something you really need to look at right there. It is hard for young and up and coming fighters to have a great amount of success in their 1st huge fight with elite competition. This is a great leap in quality.
Good health as I am on the other side very strong.
The Koscheck/Sanchez fight was a wrestler with decent striking against a grappler with no striking. Kos knew he couldnt beat Diego on the ground, he would get submitted, so he stood up where Diego is AWFUL. At that, Kos still didnt push the action. He pointed Diego to death. Diego was never in trouble...never. And this was against a fighter that just about retired due to postive blood test results for Hepatitus, found out the day before the fight that it was not, then fought with a nasty staff infection. His head was nowhere near the octagon.
The Serra/GSP fight is what it is. GSP, along with the rest of the world, paid no mind to Serra. And to say that Serra "stood up" with GSP is not really correct. It didnt last long enough for that to be determined. He landed 1 shot. My 14 daughter could put us down with 1 shot if landed on the correct spot.
There is not enough information to say "GSP is not hungry anymore". Is Franklin not hungry anymore? How about Liddell? How about any other fighter that lost 1 fight? GSP wasnt hungry for a reality show winner, little better than .500 fighter. I can assure you GSP will be itching to go in this fight. We cant go into the psyche of a fighter of why they beat a person ie Matt Hughes. But dont forget that he pummeled one of the greatest of all time.
If Kos was hesitant to push the pace with a fighter that has zero stand up, how do you think he is going to feel with constant, maddening pressure from GSP? GSP will push the pace! GSP will strike at will. He will be a little more cautious due to the 1 punch of Serra's, but nontheless, he will engage. Kos will back peddle looking to outpoint GSP just like Diego. If Kos gets a takedown, GSP is a BB in BJJ, you think he is uncomfortable there? No. This is going to be a lopsided victory for GSP.
This is a HUGE step up in competition for Kos.
Kos' past fights:
Best opponent - Diego..then who? Luke Cummo?
GSP's pat fights:
Karo Parisyan
Jason Miller
Matt Hughes (2)
Frank Trigg
Sean Sherk
BJ Penn
Something you really need to look at right there. It is hard for young and up and coming fighters to have a great amount of success in their 1st huge fight with elite competition. This is a great leap in quality.
Good health as I am on the other side very strong.
IMHO, I think KOS is gonna get embarrased very badly in this fight as Rush is gonna train harder than ever before after his upset loss to Serra. I think KOS is gonna be in the wrong place at the wrong time for this fight and it ain't gonna be pretty. But it's your money bro
IMHO, I think KOS is gonna get embarrased very badly in this fight as Rush is gonna train harder than ever before after his upset loss to Serra. I think KOS is gonna be in the wrong place at the wrong time for this fight and it ain't gonna be pretty. But it's your money bro
I think it will be a beatdown too. The last fight he took off his gi I told my wife that he was not in shape. Holy crap 3 minutes later he gets KO'ed.
Few days after the fight I was reading some articles about it and he was on vacation 6 weeks before the fight in Europe (I think) with his GF or new wife. He came back and got dinged and had to sit out 2 more weeks. He got 2-3 weeks of training in. He didnt take that fight serious at all.
I think it will be a beatdown too. The last fight he took off his gi I told my wife that he was not in shape. Holy crap 3 minutes later he gets KO'ed.
Few days after the fight I was reading some articles about it and he was on vacation 6 weeks before the fight in Europe (I think) with his GF or new wife. He came back and got dinged and had to sit out 2 more weeks. He got 2-3 weeks of training in. He didnt take that fight serious at all.
I totally respect your opinions and you've done exactly what the title of my thread requested, ya' talked me out of betting large on Kos, and I'll stick with a couple of bucks on him.
mutosufan- you bring up excellent points but my mind has been made up. I can't get over the vision of seeing Matt Serra dominate GSP, and that's exactly what he did. To say that Serra didn't "stand up" with GSP because it didn't last long enough is ridiculous, I mean, who's fault was that? I guess you're right, if GSP wouldn't have gotten knocked the fuck out, we would have had more "stand-up" to judge. Oh well, at least he has a long list of excuses. And why take the fight serious? He's only the UFC champion of the world, no reason to take your challengers serious.
My whole argument was that as dominating as Kos looked against Sanchez, who remember has some pretty solid wins on his resume (Florian, Diaz, Parysian, Riggs?), +190 is a helluva comeback v.s. a fighter that got knocked out by Matt fuckin' Serra.
Again, I appreciate you talking me out of betting too big, sometimes I forget to look at gambling from the "other side", but this way, if Kos loses, I'll only be out a couple bucks.
I totally respect your opinions and you've done exactly what the title of my thread requested, ya' talked me out of betting large on Kos, and I'll stick with a couple of bucks on him.
mutosufan- you bring up excellent points but my mind has been made up. I can't get over the vision of seeing Matt Serra dominate GSP, and that's exactly what he did. To say that Serra didn't "stand up" with GSP because it didn't last long enough is ridiculous, I mean, who's fault was that? I guess you're right, if GSP wouldn't have gotten knocked the fuck out, we would have had more "stand-up" to judge. Oh well, at least he has a long list of excuses. And why take the fight serious? He's only the UFC champion of the world, no reason to take your challengers serious.
My whole argument was that as dominating as Kos looked against Sanchez, who remember has some pretty solid wins on his resume (Florian, Diaz, Parysian, Riggs?), +190 is a helluva comeback v.s. a fighter that got knocked out by Matt fuckin' Serra.
Again, I appreciate you talking me out of betting too big, sometimes I forget to look at gambling from the "other side", but this way, if Kos loses, I'll only be out a couple bucks.
Actually there is a couple "gimmes", but they are a little juicy, not heavy -650 BS.
UFC 74:
Kendall Grove -265 should take out Patrick Cote easily. One thing that worries me about this fight is what will Kendall do if he gets a fidt in the nosr? He really hasnt had that yet, so I am curious to see what he does. Will he be like Swick and comliment his opponent in the corner (Okami fight) or will he become that much more focused?
UFC 75:
Mirkp CC -360 is a winner by 1st round 1 punch KO. Kongo is a bum. Has the best body in mma, but a bum. He will get wiped up in minutes. Go ahead and insert Gabriel Gonzaga joke.
Micheal Bisping -220 is too good to be true. Hammill has a disability of hearing, not like he is fighting with 1 arm, and he has all this love. He has no stand up, has no ground positioning improvement, and he cant finish. I like watching GnP fighters ie, Sherk, Ortiz because they are so active in trying to sominate the position. But Hammill is the true sense od lay and pray. Bisping is to technical and sound.
I parlay a lot of my fights to ease the juice out if you dont like to lay that much like I dont.
Also I was saying why he didnt take the fight serious, right or wrong, and as much as it is wrong he didnt. I could list the laundry list of reasons why he didnt, but this is mma. You will see heavy underdogs win now and again. That is the difference between this sport and bocing. One shot with 5 oz gloves on puts you out. But favorites do win more often, way more often. I give Serra a decent shot at beating Hughes. Serra is +285 right now. It should keep going up especially since the fight is 4 months away.
Actually there is a couple "gimmes", but they are a little juicy, not heavy -650 BS.
UFC 74:
Kendall Grove -265 should take out Patrick Cote easily. One thing that worries me about this fight is what will Kendall do if he gets a fidt in the nosr? He really hasnt had that yet, so I am curious to see what he does. Will he be like Swick and comliment his opponent in the corner (Okami fight) or will he become that much more focused?
UFC 75:
Mirkp CC -360 is a winner by 1st round 1 punch KO. Kongo is a bum. Has the best body in mma, but a bum. He will get wiped up in minutes. Go ahead and insert Gabriel Gonzaga joke.
Micheal Bisping -220 is too good to be true. Hammill has a disability of hearing, not like he is fighting with 1 arm, and he has all this love. He has no stand up, has no ground positioning improvement, and he cant finish. I like watching GnP fighters ie, Sherk, Ortiz because they are so active in trying to sominate the position. But Hammill is the true sense od lay and pray. Bisping is to technical and sound.
I parlay a lot of my fights to ease the juice out if you dont like to lay that much like I dont.
Also I was saying why he didnt take the fight serious, right or wrong, and as much as it is wrong he didnt. I could list the laundry list of reasons why he didnt, but this is mma. You will see heavy underdogs win now and again. That is the difference between this sport and bocing. One shot with 5 oz gloves on puts you out. But favorites do win more often, way more often. I give Serra a decent shot at beating Hughes. Serra is +285 right now. It should keep going up especially since the fight is 4 months away.
I like Grove as well, my book has him at -230. IMO, it's only a matter of time before this guy really makes a name for himself, at 6'6, he's a freak in that wieght class.
I was looking at Bisping also, Hammill gases very easily and v.s. and aggressive Bisping, this one could get ugly.
I can't take Cro Cop at that price, he really screwed a nice parlay I had going when Gonzaga KO'd him. IMO, Kongo is a pretty good striker, obviously not on Cro Cop's level, but effective.
I agree with your thoughts on Serra, Hughes is definitely the fav in this fight but at +285, I think Serra is the right side.
I like Grove as well, my book has him at -230. IMO, it's only a matter of time before this guy really makes a name for himself, at 6'6, he's a freak in that wieght class.
I was looking at Bisping also, Hammill gases very easily and v.s. and aggressive Bisping, this one could get ugly.
I can't take Cro Cop at that price, he really screwed a nice parlay I had going when Gonzaga KO'd him. IMO, Kongo is a pretty good striker, obviously not on Cro Cop's level, but effective.
I agree with your thoughts on Serra, Hughes is definitely the fav in this fight but at +285, I think Serra is the right side.
I will add CC in a few combos. Hope it doesnt burn me like he did you.
Over on the ufcmania they have a pole about the GSP fight. 87% are picking GSP. Not that it has anything to do with much. Just trying to give you a little info about waht other people are saying and thinking. Public isnt always right or wrong!
The Serra/Hughes fight getting that good of odds (I think they will go higher too) for someone that I feel can win the fight in more aspects than the favorite. Again not saying that Serra will win. But to good of value here.
I see Hughes winning by 2 ways:
Ref stoppage
isolating an arm while in side control and submitting him
I see Serra winning by a few different ways:
After the GSP KO, you have to say 1 punch KO
Submission while in guard (several)
Submission while on his back (several)
If Serra gets his back like Trigg did twice, it is done. Serra is to good at BJJ to let that get away. Really looking forward to this fight
I will add CC in a few combos. Hope it doesnt burn me like he did you.
Over on the ufcmania they have a pole about the GSP fight. 87% are picking GSP. Not that it has anything to do with much. Just trying to give you a little info about waht other people are saying and thinking. Public isnt always right or wrong!
The Serra/Hughes fight getting that good of odds (I think they will go higher too) for someone that I feel can win the fight in more aspects than the favorite. Again not saying that Serra will win. But to good of value here.
I see Hughes winning by 2 ways:
Ref stoppage
isolating an arm while in side control and submitting him
I see Serra winning by a few different ways:
After the GSP KO, you have to say 1 punch KO
Submission while in guard (several)
Submission while on his back (several)
If Serra gets his back like Trigg did twice, it is done. Serra is to good at BJJ to let that get away. Really looking forward to this fight
Diego was extremely ill and almost did not fight Kos...Kos stalled all fight, and wont be able to do that against GSP..
GSP will dominate him, especially now that he is hungry after his loss to Serra
Okay, Okay, I understand, I'm the only person in this forum that even thinks Kos has a shot. I appreciate everyone talking me out of going big on him and I'll just be making a standard bet. But I still think he's got a great shot at winning.
Diego was extremely ill and almost did not fight Kos...Kos stalled all fight, and wont be able to do that against GSP..
GSP will dominate him, especially now that he is hungry after his loss to Serra
Okay, Okay, I understand, I'm the only person in this forum that even thinks Kos has a shot. I appreciate everyone talking me out of going big on him and I'll just be making a standard bet. But I still think he's got a great shot at winning.
Okay, Okay, I understand, I'm the only person in this forum that even thinks Kos has a shot. I appreciate everyone talking me out of going big on him and I'll just be making a standard bet. But I still think he's got a great shot at winning.
I can respect that. its MMA, anything can happen...Serra beating GSP shows that
Okay, Okay, I understand, I'm the only person in this forum that even thinks Kos has a shot. I appreciate everyone talking me out of going big on him and I'll just be making a standard bet. But I still think he's got a great shot at winning.
I can respect that. its MMA, anything can happen...Serra beating GSP shows that
I just hit Kos at +220!!! Very happy to get this line, as I was content with the opening +190, so once I saw +220 I jumped figuring it won't get much higher than this.
Even if Kos does win, I appreciate ya talking me out of betting too big. Sometimes as gamblers, we (or at least I) fail to look at bets from both sides and wager too big. But I was able to stay under control for this one. However, if the Brewers win tonight, I may add a bit more.
I just hit Kos at +220!!! Very happy to get this line, as I was content with the opening +190, so once I saw +220 I jumped figuring it won't get much higher than this.
Even if Kos does win, I appreciate ya talking me out of betting too big. Sometimes as gamblers, we (or at least I) fail to look at bets from both sides and wager too big. But I was able to stay under control for this one. However, if the Brewers win tonight, I may add a bit more.
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