This is an outstanding field with the most obvious candidates for the win #3 Verrazano and #8 Palace Malice. Does this set up for a Holy-Bull-Concern fight to the finish, or for an upset with a longshot, like Transparent or juicy-priced Will Take Charge?
All week long I’ve been stuck on Verrazano, but a cogent comment by an outstanding capper on Covers, Atlashrugged, got me to thinking. Here is what he said:
I don't see him running his best at this distance. Everyone will drool over that 116 Beyer he ran but I don't care how slow the surface was that day I am a little skeptical. Two highest figs are a 116 in very slow time and a 105 where he won by over sixteen lengths in a five horse field at twenty cents on the dollar. Those two deviate quite a bit from his pattern so i will make him prove it to me today at 10F.”
Well said, and I now must concur. I have a feeling Verrazano might run out of gas keeping up with Moreno and Transparent, and fighting off the pressure of Palace Malice and (yes) ORB. Maybe even turf-to-dirt War Dancer, who is going to have to find a dirt for--and at the Spa on top of it—will be fighting down the stretch?
This is an outstanding field with the most obvious candidates for the win #3 Verrazano and #8 Palace Malice. Does this set up for a Holy-Bull-Concern fight to the finish, or for an upset with a longshot, like Transparent or juicy-priced Will Take Charge?
All week long I’ve been stuck on Verrazano, but a cogent comment by an outstanding capper on Covers, Atlashrugged, got me to thinking. Here is what he said:
I don't see him running his best at this distance. Everyone will drool over that 116 Beyer he ran but I don't care how slow the surface was that day I am a little skeptical. Two highest figs are a 116 in very slow time and a 105 where he won by over sixteen lengths in a five horse field at twenty cents on the dollar. Those two deviate quite a bit from his pattern so i will make him prove it to me today at 10F.”
Well said, and I now must concur. I have a feeling Verrazano might run out of gas keeping up with Moreno and Transparent, and fighting off the pressure of Palace Malice and (yes) ORB. Maybe even turf-to-dirt War Dancer, who is going to have to find a dirt for--and at the Spa on top of it—will be fighting down the stretch?
#1 Romansh…..Lousy post and just one race this year, a nice second place finish to Transparent in the $100K Curlin. OK works coming in and the services of the meet’s leading jock, Castellano. If he is going to win this, the tactics of the jock must be more than masterful.
#2 Orb…..It’s easy to dismiss a horse who went from the penthouse to the dumpster losing his last two races since the Derby and not looking real good doing it. Add Rosario’s broken foot into the mix and it spells possible disaster. Indeed, my guess is that his odds will go from ML 4-1 to 6-1 or better after a ton of tout money is dropped on Verrazano and PM. Some say it was the slop that got him to the winner’s circle in L’vlle, but that’s B.S., since he’s won on a dry track 3 times. Now let’s look at the bright side. Shug and his assistant have proclaimed the horse is as good as ever. Shug has never really “Nick Zito’d,” the players, so I have to believe him. The switch was made to Jose Lezcano after the Rosario injury. Jose is the 6th leading jock in the country right now---over $8 million in earnings and he’s 4th in the Saratoga standings in both wins and purses. ORB busted a .47.3 in his last work here on Aug. 19 and a .59.1 and 1 minute flat in the two prior. I think he’s ready, but does that mean he can take on Verrazano and Palace Malice?
#3 Verrazano…..What’s not to like? He blew away the field in the Haskell at 1.50.3 by 9-1/2 and did the same in the Pegasus. He’s fit, but did he beat anyone in the last two against 7 horses in the Haskell and just 5 in the Pegasus? I must go back to Atlas’ comments: “I don't see him running his best at this distance.” I think the pace the two speedsters set and pressure from PM and ORB could be his undoing.
#4 Golden Soul…..He goes from finishing second in the Derby to losing his last two by a combined 40 lengths, including nearly 30 out in the Haskell. That’s all I need to see to dismiss.
#5 Will Take Charge….I just have a gut feel that he runs big today at a very nice price…maybe 12-1 or so…coming off an very nice Jim Dandy. Wayne puts Luis Saez on him, which is a bit curious since he is just 8% at the meet and 0 for 10 with Lukas. That said the guy always seems to compete sitting 6th in the Saratoga standings in earnings. I think he sits chilly and can run deep for a handsome piece.
#6 Moreno….One of the likely pace setters and out of Ghostzapper, I’m not sure this distance is best suited. Hoever, his last two were very good races amassing a 102 in the 1-1/8 miles Jim Dandy (3rd place) and his 7 length win in the G2 Dwyer. It would take a mammoth effort for him to win this, but he should figure in how the stalkers-closers behind him perform.
#7 War Dancer….This is the “X” factor horse for me. He’s had one dirt race lifetime and that was a semi-clunker in a maiden at GP last winter. He won the VA Derby and for the life of me I cannot figure out why his connections put him in this race—arguably the most grueling all three-year old affairs next to the Derby and Belmont. He should have gone to last weekend’s Secretariat at AP where he might have been the fave. Don’t ever doubt McPeek with young ones and Alan G. can ride. I’m not sure what tactic the team will take, but the right one would provide one of the biggest upsets in this race in a long time.
#1 Romansh…..Lousy post and just one race this year, a nice second place finish to Transparent in the $100K Curlin. OK works coming in and the services of the meet’s leading jock, Castellano. If he is going to win this, the tactics of the jock must be more than masterful.
#2 Orb…..It’s easy to dismiss a horse who went from the penthouse to the dumpster losing his last two races since the Derby and not looking real good doing it. Add Rosario’s broken foot into the mix and it spells possible disaster. Indeed, my guess is that his odds will go from ML 4-1 to 6-1 or better after a ton of tout money is dropped on Verrazano and PM. Some say it was the slop that got him to the winner’s circle in L’vlle, but that’s B.S., since he’s won on a dry track 3 times. Now let’s look at the bright side. Shug and his assistant have proclaimed the horse is as good as ever. Shug has never really “Nick Zito’d,” the players, so I have to believe him. The switch was made to Jose Lezcano after the Rosario injury. Jose is the 6th leading jock in the country right now---over $8 million in earnings and he’s 4th in the Saratoga standings in both wins and purses. ORB busted a .47.3 in his last work here on Aug. 19 and a .59.1 and 1 minute flat in the two prior. I think he’s ready, but does that mean he can take on Verrazano and Palace Malice?
#3 Verrazano…..What’s not to like? He blew away the field in the Haskell at 1.50.3 by 9-1/2 and did the same in the Pegasus. He’s fit, but did he beat anyone in the last two against 7 horses in the Haskell and just 5 in the Pegasus? I must go back to Atlas’ comments: “I don't see him running his best at this distance.” I think the pace the two speedsters set and pressure from PM and ORB could be his undoing.
#4 Golden Soul…..He goes from finishing second in the Derby to losing his last two by a combined 40 lengths, including nearly 30 out in the Haskell. That’s all I need to see to dismiss.
#5 Will Take Charge….I just have a gut feel that he runs big today at a very nice price…maybe 12-1 or so…coming off an very nice Jim Dandy. Wayne puts Luis Saez on him, which is a bit curious since he is just 8% at the meet and 0 for 10 with Lukas. That said the guy always seems to compete sitting 6th in the Saratoga standings in earnings. I think he sits chilly and can run deep for a handsome piece.
#6 Moreno….One of the likely pace setters and out of Ghostzapper, I’m not sure this distance is best suited. Hoever, his last two were very good races amassing a 102 in the 1-1/8 miles Jim Dandy (3rd place) and his 7 length win in the G2 Dwyer. It would take a mammoth effort for him to win this, but he should figure in how the stalkers-closers behind him perform.
#7 War Dancer….This is the “X” factor horse for me. He’s had one dirt race lifetime and that was a semi-clunker in a maiden at GP last winter. He won the VA Derby and for the life of me I cannot figure out why his connections put him in this race—arguably the most grueling all three-year old affairs next to the Derby and Belmont. He should have gone to last weekend’s Secretariat at AP where he might have been the fave. Don’t ever doubt McPeek with young ones and Alan G. can ride. I’m not sure what tactic the team will take, but the right one would provide one of the biggest upsets in this race in a long time.
#8 Palace Malice…..Along with Verrazano, there isn’t a better horse in form as this guy. His Jim Dandy was dandy and his Belmont will be long-remembered. He’s on the muscle right now at a Mike Smith distance. Smith will really need to keep a watch on the head clock as pace should factor into his trip.
#9 Transparent…..Appears to be somewhat of a wiseguy play. While he’s done nothing wrong in his 9 race career, the colt has just one race this year—a stellar performance in the $100K Curlin at 100 on the speed side. He’s 0 for 3 on this track, but his work has been steady here. Jockey Ortiz Jr. is having a very nice meet (5th in the standings) and he should get him out near the lead. Transparent has never gone more than 1-1/8 and that was last out, so he might be ready to push the added eighth mile.
My picks:
#2 ORB……I am calling for the ORB upset win. He’s fit and ready; he’s suited to the distance and fresh after a 2-1/2 month rest; Win and place bets.
#8 Palace Malice…..Along with Verrazano, there isn’t a better horse in form as this guy. His Jim Dandy was dandy and his Belmont will be long-remembered. He’s on the muscle right now at a Mike Smith distance. Smith will really need to keep a watch on the head clock as pace should factor into his trip.
#9 Transparent…..Appears to be somewhat of a wiseguy play. While he’s done nothing wrong in his 9 race career, the colt has just one race this year—a stellar performance in the $100K Curlin at 100 on the speed side. He’s 0 for 3 on this track, but his work has been steady here. Jockey Ortiz Jr. is having a very nice meet (5th in the standings) and he should get him out near the lead. Transparent has never gone more than 1-1/8 and that was last out, so he might be ready to push the added eighth mile.
My picks:
#2 ORB……I am calling for the ORB upset win. He’s fit and ready; he’s suited to the distance and fresh after a 2-1/2 month rest; Win and place bets.
Mike you and Atlass were right about Verazzano. Thats half the battle tossing him.
#5 Will Take Charge….I just have a gut feel that he runs big today at a very nice price.
Hope you had some of that. You were dead on.
thanks Kursch.....What I loved about today's Travers--and most of them--is that any one of 4 or 5 could have won. Palace Malice just didn't seem to get out of the gate, then it took him a bit of time to get rolling, but the was flying near the end to lose by maybe 2-1/2?. ORB ran big, but the rail is his demise, as we have seen before, but he still looked great.. Verrazano probably should have sat maybe 4 back, but, as we all discussed, flamed out.
It was Moreno who ran like an absolute champ certainly proving me wrong about his distance capability...no disrespect to WTC. Moreno looks like one to watch short or long and I will not at all be surprised to see him entered in the BC Classic.
The 21-year old kid Saez graduated big today and he just might move into elite company at Belmont, assuming that is where he goes next. WTC looks to be a Classic contender.
These are the days I love in summer.
I am happy for Lukas. I have had the pleasure of meeting him 3 or 4 times and he is a gentleman. I'm glad to see him meeting success again at age 75.
Mike you and Atlass were right about Verazzano. Thats half the battle tossing him.
#5 Will Take Charge….I just have a gut feel that he runs big today at a very nice price.
Hope you had some of that. You were dead on.
thanks Kursch.....What I loved about today's Travers--and most of them--is that any one of 4 or 5 could have won. Palace Malice just didn't seem to get out of the gate, then it took him a bit of time to get rolling, but the was flying near the end to lose by maybe 2-1/2?. ORB ran big, but the rail is his demise, as we have seen before, but he still looked great.. Verrazano probably should have sat maybe 4 back, but, as we all discussed, flamed out.
It was Moreno who ran like an absolute champ certainly proving me wrong about his distance capability...no disrespect to WTC. Moreno looks like one to watch short or long and I will not at all be surprised to see him entered in the BC Classic.
The 21-year old kid Saez graduated big today and he just might move into elite company at Belmont, assuming that is where he goes next. WTC looks to be a Classic contender.
These are the days I love in summer.
I am happy for Lukas. I have had the pleasure of meeting him 3 or 4 times and he is a gentleman. I'm glad to see him meeting success again at age 75.
I respect Lukas as well. Never heard a bad word about him. A true horseman and hard worker. I put him right up there with my idol Bobby Frankel. Mike didn't Lukas go through a horrid lose streak, think it was when little Stevie couldn't win a race.
But I agree with you 100% love these big races and just a matter of inches sometimes that can cost you the big ticket we all look for.
I respect Lukas as well. Never heard a bad word about him. A true horseman and hard worker. I put him right up there with my idol Bobby Frankel. Mike didn't Lukas go through a horrid lose streak, think it was when little Stevie couldn't win a race.
But I agree with you 100% love these big races and just a matter of inches sometimes that can cost you the big ticket we all look for.
I respect Lukas as well. Never heard a bad word about him. A true horseman and hard worker. I put him right up there with my idol Bobby Frankel. Mike didn't Lukas go through a horrid lose streak, think it was when little Stevie couldn't win a race.
But I agree with you 100% love these big races and just a matter of inches sometimes that can cost you the big ticket we all look for.
Kursh...Yes. Lukas was having a bad meet. I think I heard that he was 1 win in 40 tries at Spa before winning today. Maybe someone can verify that stat.
I respect Lukas as well. Never heard a bad word about him. A true horseman and hard worker. I put him right up there with my idol Bobby Frankel. Mike didn't Lukas go through a horrid lose streak, think it was when little Stevie couldn't win a race.
But I agree with you 100% love these big races and just a matter of inches sometimes that can cost you the big ticket we all look for.
Kursh...Yes. Lukas was having a bad meet. I think I heard that he was 1 win in 40 tries at Spa before winning today. Maybe someone can verify that stat.
This is funny....I ran across this item from when I posted an analysis of the Belmont.
LESSOON LEARNED.....keep following the form of a horse and don't give up on the horse if you believe in it. I wrote this last June on Belmont day about Will Take Charge in the Belmont Stakes:
#10 Will Take Charge….This horse makes my head hurt and I don’t see why he is here. He can be a winner in lesser conditioned stakes down the road. I just don’t see him doing anything of import today.
While I was right on that day--he finished 10th, 17 lengths out-boy oh boy do I sound like a dope today!
This is funny....I ran across this item from when I posted an analysis of the Belmont.
LESSOON LEARNED.....keep following the form of a horse and don't give up on the horse if you believe in it. I wrote this last June on Belmont day about Will Take Charge in the Belmont Stakes:
#10 Will Take Charge….This horse makes my head hurt and I don’t see why he is here. He can be a winner in lesser conditioned stakes down the road. I just don’t see him doing anything of import today.
While I was right on that day--he finished 10th, 17 lengths out-boy oh boy do I sound like a dope today!
When I see all these posts... wish we all could capitalize, but I don't post much here... no time... BUT...
If you just check @safepicks (Twitter)... no need to follow it, just check for yourself and confirm... We called for Moreno to finish 1st... told the twitter world to TB 2,3,5,6 for the cash! Can't make this stuff up, it's there.
Now, Moreno almost made it w2w... but we got the place/show... will take it... and we hit the tri for a good $core. To much over-rating of the field heading in... if you ask me.
Anyway, good luck to all... and feel free to follow... I don't tweet often, but when I do, it's usually a nice outcome. (Again, no need to follow - for those skeptics here, just check it out and see that I tell the truth.) Losing sucks... winning is awesome!
When I see all these posts... wish we all could capitalize, but I don't post much here... no time... BUT...
If you just check @safepicks (Twitter)... no need to follow it, just check for yourself and confirm... We called for Moreno to finish 1st... told the twitter world to TB 2,3,5,6 for the cash! Can't make this stuff up, it's there.
Now, Moreno almost made it w2w... but we got the place/show... will take it... and we hit the tri for a good $core. To much over-rating of the field heading in... if you ask me.
Anyway, good luck to all... and feel free to follow... I don't tweet often, but when I do, it's usually a nice outcome. (Again, no need to follow - for those skeptics here, just check it out and see that I tell the truth.) Losing sucks... winning is awesome!
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