I have an untradional and unpopular way of betting on football. At the beginning of every season, I load up my offshore account with $10,000. I bet on ALOT of games every week. 3 of my closest friends and I spend alot of hours breaking down every game on the docket. The ones I like, I bet on. The ones I like alot, I bet more on. I have been doing this for 8 years now and have been profitable 6 of those years. I wish everyone luck this week 4. Here are my picks. Any opinion is always welcome. Good luck everyone in week 4!
Thurs Sept 23rd
Miami -3.5 ($265 to win $250) Pittsburgh played Univ of New Hampshire last week and although they won 38-16 you need to look deeper into the stats. First of all UNH is Div I-AA and not expected to win their Colonial Conference. The half time score was 17-3 Pitt and that was only because of a late Pitt TD just before the half. UNH held the Panthers to 3-10 in 3rd down efficiency for the game but most frightening, if your backing the Panthers this week, is UNH produced 298 total yards and 20 1st downs! Miami played Ohio St very tough last week and if you remember, the score was 26-17 when Miami took the opening drive of the 2nd half down to the Ohio St 6 yard line before a 3rd and goal pass was intercepted and returned 80 yards. Miami had 4 turnovers in this game. I see Miami rolling in this one. Miami covers 36-21
Friday Sept 24th
TCU -17.5 ($550 to win $500) TCU ranks 9th in the country in Rushing offense and 14th in the nation in total Defense. SMU has played Wash St, Texas Tech, and UAB who rank 99th, 61st, and 85th in total DF. SMU has not played a legit DF team until this week. SMU is giving up an ave of close to 350 yrds/game, TCU put up 453 yards against 25th ranked Oregon St. I like QB Andy Dalton and the Horned Frogs in a steady dominating offensive and defensive attack all game long. TCU BIG here 55-24
I have an untradional and unpopular way of betting on football. At the beginning of every season, I load up my offshore account with $10,000. I bet on ALOT of games every week. 3 of my closest friends and I spend alot of hours breaking down every game on the docket. The ones I like, I bet on. The ones I like alot, I bet more on. I have been doing this for 8 years now and have been profitable 6 of those years. I wish everyone luck this week 4. Here are my picks. Any opinion is always welcome. Good luck everyone in week 4!
Thurs Sept 23rd
Miami -3.5 ($265 to win $250) Pittsburgh played Univ of New Hampshire last week and although they won 38-16 you need to look deeper into the stats. First of all UNH is Div I-AA and not expected to win their Colonial Conference. The half time score was 17-3 Pitt and that was only because of a late Pitt TD just before the half. UNH held the Panthers to 3-10 in 3rd down efficiency for the game but most frightening, if your backing the Panthers this week, is UNH produced 298 total yards and 20 1st downs! Miami played Ohio St very tough last week and if you remember, the score was 26-17 when Miami took the opening drive of the 2nd half down to the Ohio St 6 yard line before a 3rd and goal pass was intercepted and returned 80 yards. Miami had 4 turnovers in this game. I see Miami rolling in this one. Miami covers 36-21
Friday Sept 24th
TCU -17.5 ($550 to win $500) TCU ranks 9th in the country in Rushing offense and 14th in the nation in total Defense. SMU has played Wash St, Texas Tech, and UAB who rank 99th, 61st, and 85th in total DF. SMU has not played a legit DF team until this week. SMU is giving up an ave of close to 350 yrds/game, TCU put up 453 yards against 25th ranked Oregon St. I like QB Andy Dalton and the Horned Frogs in a steady dominating offensive and defensive attack all game long. TCU BIG here 55-24
LIKE THE TCU -17.5 PICK. It's hard to fade tcu and boise against piss poor defenses given there need to run up the scores in order to get a shot at the title game. Both teams don't have the luxury of a let down spot given their team goals. I also don't see this line going below 17 before kick. If anything it will get closer to 20.
LIKE THE TCU -17.5 PICK. It's hard to fade tcu and boise against piss poor defenses given there need to run up the scores in order to get a shot at the title game. Both teams don't have the luxury of a let down spot given their team goals. I also don't see this line going below 17 before kick. If anything it will get closer to 20.
Take a look at the OVER on the TCU game @ 55.5 I do see that going way over regardless if TCU covers or not, SMU has the offense to put up 20 and TCU can handle the rest. Just a idea to semi hedge incase TCU shits there pants or your Moose friend visits, or Lane Kiffen calls for the Back door sweep.
Take a look at the OVER on the TCU game @ 55.5 I do see that going way over regardless if TCU covers or not, SMU has the offense to put up 20 and TCU can handle the rest. Just a idea to semi hedge incase TCU shits there pants or your Moose friend visits, or Lane Kiffen calls for the Back door sweep.
Games that I have decided to eliminate from this weeks card:
BC/Va Tech, USC/Wash St, UConn/Buffalo. Just too much inconsistent data or not enough data. Here are some more games that I have locked in on.
Tennessee -13.5 ($1100 to win $1000) UAB gave up 566 total yards last week to Troy and the week before gave up 25 1st downs and 421 total yards to SMU. Tennessee has played 10th ranked Florida last week and 7th ranked Oregon the week before and put up a total of 600 yards against the two top ranked teams. Expect QB Matt Simms and RB Tauren Poole to have career numbers this weekend as they will cut through the porous UAB defense all day long infront of the home fans. Expect a blowout here. If SMU can put up 28 , Florida Atlantic can put up 32 and Troy can put up 34 points against this UAB team, imagine what Tennessee is gonna do after 2 difficult games against top ranked opponents. I see Tennesssee putting up a 50 spot here. Tennessee in a blowout 52-21
Air Force -13.5 ($330 to win $300) This line has moved from -11.5 to -13.5 however, it doesn't matter and here is why.Air force racked up 458 yards in offense and 25 first downs against the 7th ranked Oklahoma Sooners last week. The week before that they put up 477 yards and 22 1st downs against BYU. Last week against Wyoming, Boise St put up 648 total yards and 32 first downs. Airforce ranks 6th in the country in total offense. QB Tim Jefferson and RB Asher Clark are both averaging over 6.4 yards/carry. It is gonna be a long day for the Cowboys as Airforce will be marching up and down the field at will. Another high scoring affair here. Airforce in a route, 41-17
Games that I have decided to eliminate from this weeks card:
BC/Va Tech, USC/Wash St, UConn/Buffalo. Just too much inconsistent data or not enough data. Here are some more games that I have locked in on.
Tennessee -13.5 ($1100 to win $1000) UAB gave up 566 total yards last week to Troy and the week before gave up 25 1st downs and 421 total yards to SMU. Tennessee has played 10th ranked Florida last week and 7th ranked Oregon the week before and put up a total of 600 yards against the two top ranked teams. Expect QB Matt Simms and RB Tauren Poole to have career numbers this weekend as they will cut through the porous UAB defense all day long infront of the home fans. Expect a blowout here. If SMU can put up 28 , Florida Atlantic can put up 32 and Troy can put up 34 points against this UAB team, imagine what Tennessee is gonna do after 2 difficult games against top ranked opponents. I see Tennesssee putting up a 50 spot here. Tennessee in a blowout 52-21
Air Force -13.5 ($330 to win $300) This line has moved from -11.5 to -13.5 however, it doesn't matter and here is why.Air force racked up 458 yards in offense and 25 first downs against the 7th ranked Oklahoma Sooners last week. The week before that they put up 477 yards and 22 1st downs against BYU. Last week against Wyoming, Boise St put up 648 total yards and 32 first downs. Airforce ranks 6th in the country in total offense. QB Tim Jefferson and RB Asher Clark are both averaging over 6.4 yards/carry. It is gonna be a long day for the Cowboys as Airforce will be marching up and down the field at will. Another high scoring affair here. Airforce in a route, 41-17
This weeks card looks very strong. Here are some more plays:
Army +6 ($330 to win $300) In last years meeting, Duke beat Army 35-19 on 2 interceptions returned for TD's thrown by then QB Carson Williams. WIlliams is now gone and new Sophmore QB Trent Steelman is efficient and accurate completing over 52 % of his passes so far this young season with zero Int's. RB's Brian Cobbs and Patrick Mealy have been getting the bulk of the carries on offense. Cobb is averaging a staggering 11.9 yrds/carry while Mealy is averaging over 6yrds/carry. Army has a pretty respectable defense ranked 27th overall. Duke has some very inflated numbers because of weak opponents in week 1 and week 2( Elon and Wake Forest). Expect a very controlled and dominating running attack against Dukes' 100th ranked Defense against the rush. Army gets revenge for last years tough home loss in a BIG WAY. Army 27-14
Stanford -3.5 ($1100 to win $1000) **Play of the Day** Notre Dame lost last week to a mediocre Michigan St 31-34 who ranks 70th in the country in total defense, and the week before, lost to a michigan team who last week barely squeeked by Div I-AA Massachusetts. This week, Stanford brings the #1 passing defense and 6th ranked defense in the country. If that doesn't scare the Notre Dame backers, they also bring in the #12th ranked Rushing offense in the country. Notre Dame is terrible against the run, giving up 203 yards last week to the Spartans, and 532 total yards to Michigan the week before. Stanford QB Andrew Luck completes 64% of his passes and has yet to throw an INT. He can throw and is a run threat also averaging 10.8 yrds/carry. The cardinals have a dual RB attack in RB Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney both averaging over 5 yrds/carry. Notre Dame doesn't have a chance here. If Michigan can put up over 500 yards then the next week struggle with Div I-AA Massachusetts, makes this a no-brainer. Andrew Luck and the Cardinals will cover easily in dominating fashion. Stanford 49-20
This weeks card looks very strong. Here are some more plays:
Army +6 ($330 to win $300) In last years meeting, Duke beat Army 35-19 on 2 interceptions returned for TD's thrown by then QB Carson Williams. WIlliams is now gone and new Sophmore QB Trent Steelman is efficient and accurate completing over 52 % of his passes so far this young season with zero Int's. RB's Brian Cobbs and Patrick Mealy have been getting the bulk of the carries on offense. Cobb is averaging a staggering 11.9 yrds/carry while Mealy is averaging over 6yrds/carry. Army has a pretty respectable defense ranked 27th overall. Duke has some very inflated numbers because of weak opponents in week 1 and week 2( Elon and Wake Forest). Expect a very controlled and dominating running attack against Dukes' 100th ranked Defense against the rush. Army gets revenge for last years tough home loss in a BIG WAY. Army 27-14
Stanford -3.5 ($1100 to win $1000) **Play of the Day** Notre Dame lost last week to a mediocre Michigan St 31-34 who ranks 70th in the country in total defense, and the week before, lost to a michigan team who last week barely squeeked by Div I-AA Massachusetts. This week, Stanford brings the #1 passing defense and 6th ranked defense in the country. If that doesn't scare the Notre Dame backers, they also bring in the #12th ranked Rushing offense in the country. Notre Dame is terrible against the run, giving up 203 yards last week to the Spartans, and 532 total yards to Michigan the week before. Stanford QB Andrew Luck completes 64% of his passes and has yet to throw an INT. He can throw and is a run threat also averaging 10.8 yrds/carry. The cardinals have a dual RB attack in RB Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney both averaging over 5 yrds/carry. Notre Dame doesn't have a chance here. If Michigan can put up over 500 yards then the next week struggle with Div I-AA Massachusetts, makes this a no-brainer. Andrew Luck and the Cardinals will cover easily in dominating fashion. Stanford 49-20
Idaho -7.5 ($550 to win $500) Colorado St is one of my 3 "go against" teams this year. They are absolutely pathetic, ranking 106th in total Defense. Their offense is not much better, averaging barely 200 yrds/game which ranks them 88th in total offense. Idaho ranks in the top in many defensive categories. They gathered 6 sacks last week against UNLV and picked off their 3rd int of the season. The week before against 6th ranked Nebraska, they forced 3 fumbles, had 2 sacks, and gathered an Int. In last weeks dominating win against UNLV, the Idaho Defense held the Rebels to only 187 total yards and 11 first downs. The key to this game is keeping Idaho QB Nathan Enderle from throwing Int's. He has 7 on the season so far in 3 games. Fortunately, Colorado St ranks last in defensive Int's and 109th in rushing defense so the Vandals may not even have to throw the ball. Idaho will duplicate their performance last week. Idaho 31-10
Idaho -7.5 ($550 to win $500) Colorado St is one of my 3 "go against" teams this year. They are absolutely pathetic, ranking 106th in total Defense. Their offense is not much better, averaging barely 200 yrds/game which ranks them 88th in total offense. Idaho ranks in the top in many defensive categories. They gathered 6 sacks last week against UNLV and picked off their 3rd int of the season. The week before against 6th ranked Nebraska, they forced 3 fumbles, had 2 sacks, and gathered an Int. In last weeks dominating win against UNLV, the Idaho Defense held the Rebels to only 187 total yards and 11 first downs. The key to this game is keeping Idaho QB Nathan Enderle from throwing Int's. He has 7 on the season so far in 3 games. Fortunately, Colorado St ranks last in defensive Int's and 109th in rushing defense so the Vandals may not even have to throw the ball. Idaho will duplicate their performance last week. Idaho 31-10
Love the air force man. I took em 14.5 cuz sports interactions sucks but considering what I know about wyoming and AFA, AFA is going to win by at least 30. But watch out for the Stanford game, I'm still on the fence on whether to pull the trigger. Stanford has been dominating so far but has not played any legitimate opponents. Whereas NT played some decent opponents and did ok. Plus NT is at home. Regardless Stanford has been running a train and andrew luck is a hot as it gets. I'll still be think about this one, and by the time I'm done the line will probably be about 9 lol. BOL as always!
Love the air force man. I took em 14.5 cuz sports interactions sucks but considering what I know about wyoming and AFA, AFA is going to win by at least 30. But watch out for the Stanford game, I'm still on the fence on whether to pull the trigger. Stanford has been dominating so far but has not played any legitimate opponents. Whereas NT played some decent opponents and did ok. Plus NT is at home. Regardless Stanford has been running a train and andrew luck is a hot as it gets. I'll still be think about this one, and by the time I'm done the line will probably be about 9 lol. BOL as always!
laying a lot of chalk on the road is a recipe for disaster; not sure why you tell people what you supposedly bet no one cares or believes you; I know you are young kid and you will learn
GL and BTW its IN A ROUT not in a ROUTE which is a destination.
And I will bet you 50k that Stanford doesnt even come close to routing ND; they are playing two different QB; Michigan QB is a mobile QB versus Luck who is a pocket passer and the game is at ND; Why do you lay chalk on every away game. This has to be the first game in a long time that Stanford is favored in this game AT NOTRE DAME. 49-20. ARE YOU NUTS. This game will down to the wire;
Also just my opinion but you are playing too many games and most of them are road games laying chalk. If you lose Tenn and Stanford which is very possible you will lose big on the day. Take it from someone who has done the same thing you are doing, You may get lucky and have a good day but over the long run betting big on a couple of games and then betting small on 5-6 games you will lose. Why not take your best play and put $750 on each you hit both and you are up $1500; Or since you are supposedly betting 1k on each game take the other $500 and do a 2 team parlay. You hit both and you are up $2700. if you lose one of your 1k games you wont hit 1500 and more likely lose. You can take my advice with a grain of salt its your supposed money. Also you may be right about Tenn hopefully you are but they are off two big games you mentioned they put up 600 yards against them; so what they got their azz handed to them who cares how many yards they had; Their last game being Florida so they will be beaten up because that was a very hard game and they lost on top of it. At least the game is in Tenn but Tenn has looked horrible this year and laying 2 tds I couild easily see a backdoor cover. GL on your plays I have fallen into the same things you are doing, playing large on a couple of games and laying chalk on the road.
laying a lot of chalk on the road is a recipe for disaster; not sure why you tell people what you supposedly bet no one cares or believes you; I know you are young kid and you will learn
GL and BTW its IN A ROUT not in a ROUTE which is a destination.
And I will bet you 50k that Stanford doesnt even come close to routing ND; they are playing two different QB; Michigan QB is a mobile QB versus Luck who is a pocket passer and the game is at ND; Why do you lay chalk on every away game. This has to be the first game in a long time that Stanford is favored in this game AT NOTRE DAME. 49-20. ARE YOU NUTS. This game will down to the wire;
Also just my opinion but you are playing too many games and most of them are road games laying chalk. If you lose Tenn and Stanford which is very possible you will lose big on the day. Take it from someone who has done the same thing you are doing, You may get lucky and have a good day but over the long run betting big on a couple of games and then betting small on 5-6 games you will lose. Why not take your best play and put $750 on each you hit both and you are up $1500; Or since you are supposedly betting 1k on each game take the other $500 and do a 2 team parlay. You hit both and you are up $2700. if you lose one of your 1k games you wont hit 1500 and more likely lose. You can take my advice with a grain of salt its your supposed money. Also you may be right about Tenn hopefully you are but they are off two big games you mentioned they put up 600 yards against them; so what they got their azz handed to them who cares how many yards they had; Their last game being Florida so they will be beaten up because that was a very hard game and they lost on top of it. At least the game is in Tenn but Tenn has looked horrible this year and laying 2 tds I couild easily see a backdoor cover. GL on your plays I have fallen into the same things you are doing, playing large on a couple of games and laying chalk on the road.
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