First topic this week will be favorites, of which there seem to be an unusual number in the 3 to 4 point range, esp. on the road. It's a commonly held belief that small road favorites are the worst bets on the board as a class, and there might be some truth to that. For reasons that are never clear, time after time road favorites of 3 points or less lose outright, even when it seems they are clearly the superior team.
I guess that's a hazard I'll have to avoid somehow this week, because of all the favorites I like, most fall into that class.
Illinois, PennSt., GaTech, ISU, KentSt., Baylor, and Wyoming all are 3-4 point road favorites, and initially at least I like 3 of them. I played Wyoming already at -3. I'll play PSU as well, but I don't see any 2.5's coming back yet. Do people realize Michigan is playing with a true Frosh QB? Finally Illinois, similar to Wyoming, simply based on superior talent. That's one game that ticks me off, because the early bird bettors were so sharp. Game opened pick, which didn't surprise me, but was quickly bet up to 3. I'd have locked in if I has a clue what was coming. Now I'm holding out it because I have a feeling that the great unwashed masses who still can't distinguish between the schools will bet it back down, thinking the home dog will be live in a roughly equal situation. Points could be crucial there. I'd like to give less than 2.
The other favorite I have booked already is Miami -2.5 on Thursday night. Why all the love for TAMU I can't understand. They can't throw the ball and they can't play defense, but they're going to march in to the Orange bowl and come away with a win? Not bloody likely. TAMU hasn't covered a non-conference road game since 1999. Yes, that's an actual fact. You can look it up.
That's probably it for favorites. Colorado was probably a good play when it first came out but that line might have got away from me. Also Troy, if it was lined fairly. But 10+ is just too much in a letdown spot on the road vs a conference opponent. Navy another one similar to Troy. Probably the right side, but where's the fairness? Hell, they just lost at home to Ball St. How is this more than a touchdown? Might actually if helped if Kaipo couldn't go, but if he's OK game won't drop under 10. Not worth it.
So that's about it for the favorites. Dogs is a topic for another day, as there is much more to comment on. Going to be another doggy Saturday......