I'm going for the middle on tonight's total. I missed the good numbers because I wasn't really looking out for it, but took under 65.5. Movement of these things is pretty predictable when driven by the weather and the effect is exaggerated when it's the only game on the board. I expect to see a 61 by the time we're done here. Open was 68, so I already fucked up a bit, but like I said, it wasn't planned. Just testing how much of a slam dunk these moves are.
I used to do this all the time, when Pinnacle used to open. Not so interested now when I have to lay -110 to get an early number. I've done the math, but not for this year. Shouldn't vary much. for a 20 cent line, just under 2.5 points is the break even point, which is why it's not worth doing in bulk. Late season weather games might still hold value though, we'll see.
So the bet will be 50 to win 1000 that the middle will hit, unless maybe I find plus juice on MB late.
I'm going for the middle on tonight's total. I missed the good numbers because I wasn't really looking out for it, but took under 65.5. Movement of these things is pretty predictable when driven by the weather and the effect is exaggerated when it's the only game on the board. I expect to see a 61 by the time we're done here. Open was 68, so I already fucked up a bit, but like I said, it wasn't planned. Just testing how much of a slam dunk these moves are.
I used to do this all the time, when Pinnacle used to open. Not so interested now when I have to lay -110 to get an early number. I've done the math, but not for this year. Shouldn't vary much. for a 20 cent line, just under 2.5 points is the break even point, which is why it's not worth doing in bulk. Late season weather games might still hold value though, we'll see.
So the bet will be 50 to win 1000 that the middle will hit, unless maybe I find plus juice on MB late.
Anybody want to tell me where the bottom is on this? Seems to have leveled off at 59.5. That might be all we get, but 59 is a key number.
Also of interest is the fact that the Ohio game opened 54 and already bet down to 49. I haven't even looked, but I'm guessing bad weather. Lesson is that you have to be on the ball in this game. Too late for me on that one. That's OK, not my bread and butter. Been there, done that.....
Anybody want to tell me where the bottom is on this? Seems to have leveled off at 59.5. That might be all we get, but 59 is a key number.
Also of interest is the fact that the Ohio game opened 54 and already bet down to 49. I haven't even looked, but I'm guessing bad weather. Lesson is that you have to be on the ball in this game. Too late for me on that one. That's OK, not my bread and butter. Been there, done that.....
OK, I closed it out. Took the 59.5 with slight + juice instead of 59 -110. My experience teaches me it is better to close out a little early, because sometimes there is a strong bounce back very late from hedgers and bargain hunters. I settled for Over 59.5 +102 at MB, which translates to flat even after the commish.
Breakdown:
Under 59.5 -- Even
59.5 to 65.5 -- +1000
Over 65.5 -- -50
Best part is now I have a rooting interest to enjoy this crappy game......
OK, I closed it out. Took the 59.5 with slight + juice instead of 59 -110. My experience teaches me it is better to close out a little early, because sometimes there is a strong bounce back very late from hedgers and bargain hunters. I settled for Over 59.5 +102 at MB, which translates to flat even after the commish.
Breakdown:
Under 59.5 -- Even
59.5 to 65.5 -- +1000
Over 65.5 -- -50
Best part is now I have a rooting interest to enjoy this crappy game......
OK, I closed it out. Took the 59.5 with slight + juice instead of 59 -110. My experience teaches me it is better to close out a little early, because sometimes there is a strong bounce back very late from hedgers and bargain hunters. I settled for Over 59.5 +102 at MB, which translates to flat even after the commish.
Breakdown:
Under 59.5 -- Even
59.5 to 65.5 -- +1000
Over 65.5 -- -50
Best part is now I have a rooting interest to enjoy this crappy game......
haha u think your in my league betting $500 a game?
OK, I closed it out. Took the 59.5 with slight + juice instead of 59 -110. My experience teaches me it is better to close out a little early, because sometimes there is a strong bounce back very late from hedgers and bargain hunters. I settled for Over 59.5 +102 at MB, which translates to flat even after the commish.
Breakdown:
Under 59.5 -- Even
59.5 to 65.5 -- +1000
Over 65.5 -- -50
Best part is now I have a rooting interest to enjoy this crappy game......
haha u think your in my league betting $500 a game?
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