What an interesting game to cap:
Miami is 2-3 ATS on the road and they have played some tough competition that at first look is the reason their avg points per game seems very low to the number they have allowed and yet still having a winning record at 5-4 and an impressive 4-1 in conference games.
I beleive this is an example of playing very strong teams outside of conference which leads to playing very strong in conference when they are weaker conferences such as the MAC. And having to play these teams on the road is even more impressive and helps me get through the odd points for and against for Miami. Miami has played at FLA (L 12-34), at Mizzou (L 13-51), at Cincy (L 3-45) so a total scoring disadvantage of 28-130 in games I wouldn't have expected them to play well. ***True, they did lose to Ohio at home 2 weeks ago 34-13 that I don't like, but need to see the differences between Ohio and Bowling Green next, but keep in mind that Miami had 6 TO'S agianst Ohio and that is likely a fluke and nobody wins with 6 to's.
Miami, OH Offense: Sophmore QB Zac Dysert was having a very good year and then came the last two games. Dysert has 12 tds, 12 pics, has a 63.6 completion percentage and over 2100 yards passing. ****He has had one terrible game and an average game in the last 2 throwing 4Tds and 6 pics (4 against Ohio).
Offensively Miami is #104 in scoring, #98 in total yards and #119 in rushing yards. They have a very weak 2.2 yards per cary so better have a good game from the QB position I contribute this to the competition listed above and if you include Ohio game, they have played 4 of 9 against better to MUCH better competition than Bowling Green will play. Even though, they are #32 in passing yards.
Senior receiver Armand Robinson is having a strong year with 60 catches and 4tds, Freshman Nick Harwell had a fantastic game against Ohio with 11 catches and 219 yards then followed up with a 2 td game last week against Buffalo.
Bowling Green: They have not played anywhere near the competion that Miami has unless you want to include the extremely overrated and earlier seasoned hype of Michigan. They have had an extra week off and that would typically concern me a little, but I don't beleive they are good enough to worry about this too much.
Sporting a 2-7 record, 1-4 conference and 1-2 at home they do have a 5-4ATS record.
Offensively this team cannot run the ball ranked #120 in the nation. This alone will kill them against Miami, however they are also #110 in total yards, #85 in points scored.
Defensively Miami is doing ok against weaker competition and overall I would have expected to see their season stats worse than they are by playing the teams they have. #43 against the rush, #53 in total yards, #66 in passing and #69 in points allowed.
Another Freshman QB starting in Matt Schilz, pocket passer with 5 tds and 9 pics along with 3 rushing tds, but don' t look at that as a mobil QB as he has -105 yards rushing for the year.
Sophmore QB Pankratz gets some duties and has 4 tds with 5 piks and a rediculously low 46.1% completion percentage.
Junior Kamar Jorden is the go to guy with 75 catches and 3 scores.
Bowling Green is terrible running with a 2.0 per carry and 1.4 in the last 3!
Most convincing to me is staying away from another freshman QB in this contest.
Miami of Ohio -2.5