313 Air Force -7 @ 314 Army [12 Noon]
Write-up: Initially the over jumped out at me because neither team plays defense but the more I read into the numbers the more I like Air Force -7. I see this game being an easy Air Force win in the 49-10 range. Air Force's schedule is far stronger than Army. Air Force nearly beat Michigan on Sept 8 on the road. Army is losing by a TD to 10 points at home on average this season. I do not see this trend changing on Saturday. Army is 1-4 SU at home and giving up 460 yards. Now I will admit that Air Force is no better on D but they simply are the better team here and the 7 point spot is a number I am willing to give here.
313 Air Force -7 for 10 units
325 Houston @ 326 E. Carolina +3 [12 Noon]
Write-up: Certain lines each week make you do a double take and this Houston/E Carolina match-up is just that. The wrong team is favored and I will tell you why. Houston is losing by nearly 14 points on average on the road. E. Carolina is winning by nearly 10 points on average at home. Houston turns the ball over 3 times versus E. Carolina's 2 TO's per game. E. Carolina's defense is better and even though Houston's offense yardage is 513 on average, E. Carolina's D is only giving up 412 so the strength is with E. Carolina.
326 E. Carolina +3 for 30 units
326 E. Carolina moneyline +140 for 10 units
327 Iowa +2.5 @ 328 Indiana [3:30 PM]
Write-up: Iowa falls into the same set-up as I explained above with E. Carolina, except for the fact that Iowa and Indiana are losing SU on average this season. With similar stats I like the plus points here. While the offensive yardage goes to Indiana at 442, Iowa is only giving up 355 on D versus Indiana's 440. Both teams are not great and I would never spend money on their tickets, but I will however wager on the plus points when the game should be a pick'em.
327 Iowa +2.5 for 30 units
327 Iowa moneyline +110 for 10 units
351 Nebraska @ 352 Michigan St +1 [3:30 PM]
Write-up: This is a big time conference match-up and I am coming with big time heavy unit domination. I have pinpointed a difference maker in this game that will pay me heavy dividends. Nebraska is losing on average by 10 points on the road this year and yet they are favored? Michigan St on defense is only giving up 267 yds. I don't care that Nebraska has a balanced offense, Michigan St will stop them early and often. This grind it out ugly game will favor Michigan St and so I am shocked that they are not at least a 2.5-3 pt favorite.
352 Michigan St +1 for 75 units
385 Texas @ 386 Texas Tech -6.5 [3:30 PM]
Write-up: Texas has no chance here. None whatsoever. The Texas Tech defense is only giving up 122 rushing yards and 178 passing yards. Texas might be averaging 443 offensive yards but that will be meaningless on Saturday. Texas Tech is winning by nearly 21 points at home. I almost made this my 75 unit play but I am still coming strong with 50 units.
386 Texas Tech -6.5 for 50 units
I will be back around 6:30 PM for the late card.
Disclaimer: I am simply an everyday guy reading the stat sheets that are kindly provided by the sportsbooks. I read them and make an educated guess on the outcome.
History:
11/01: MIA +1.5 [+25.00] W
11/01: VT/MIA Over 58 [-27.50] L
11/01: KC +8 [-11.00] L
11/02: CHI/CLE Under 183.5 [-11.00] L
11/02: UTA/NO Over 188.5 [-11.00] L
11/02: WAS/CAL Over 52 *PENDING 25 units*