The basis is simple. If there is a "large" difference between the
opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with
Vegas.
System rules:
If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2.5 points. 4.5 to 8, a large difference is 3 points. 8.5 to 12, a large difference is 3.5 points. 12.5 to 15.5, a large difference is 4 points. 16 and up, a large difference is 5 points.
One note: I
will not be wagering on the teams that have over 65% of the bets
according to covers contests.
The basis is simple. If there is a "large" difference between the
opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with
Vegas.
System rules:
If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2.5 points. 4.5 to 8, a large difference is 3 points. 8.5 to 12, a large difference is 3.5 points. 12.5 to 15.5, a large difference is 4 points. 16 and up, a large difference is 5 points.
One note: I
will not be wagering on the teams that have over 65% of the bets
according to covers contests.
Thanks bailey, I am interested to see how this works in the NBA. Can you or someone else keep a YTD record somewhere? I'll start tracking as of today.I'm using Sagarins predictions versus BOL opening line.Will track plays on any difference of 3 points or more and side with vegas.I'll include in my daily spreadsheet.Todays selections are there.(I am not betting these only tracking to start.
Thanks bailey, I am interested to see how this works in the NBA. Can you or someone else keep a YTD record somewhere? I'll start tracking as of today.I'm using Sagarins predictions versus BOL opening line.Will track plays on any difference of 3 points or more and side with vegas.I'll include in my daily spreadsheet.Todays selections are there.(I am not betting these only tracking to start.
2-0 tonight if you played both. Pitt would have been a nice ML play too as a RDA. I didn't have the balls. Just played it straight. I'll take the and run though.
Here's what I see for tomorrow as of now:
7:00pm
Illinois +3 HDT 67 Thrill Score
Illinois opened at BetOnline at +2.5 and Kenpom has Illinois +6
7:00pm
Clemson +9 RDT 32.6 Thrill Score
Clemson opened at BetOnline at +8 and Kenpom has Clemson +11
For those new the the system check this site for any questions. I'm going to try to put a couple more weeks of backtracking up for those trying to spot tweaks and trends.
2-0 tonight if you played both. Pitt would have been a nice ML play too as a RDA. I didn't have the balls. Just played it straight. I'll take the and run though.
Here's what I see for tomorrow as of now:
7:00pm
Illinois +3 HDT 67 Thrill Score
Illinois opened at BetOnline at +2.5 and Kenpom has Illinois +6
7:00pm
Clemson +9 RDT 32.6 Thrill Score
Clemson opened at BetOnline at +8 and Kenpom has Clemson +11
For those new the the system check this site for any questions. I'm going to try to put a couple more weeks of backtracking up for those trying to spot tweaks and trends.
2-0 tonight if you played both. Pitt would have been a nice ML play too as a RDA. I didn't have the balls. Just played it straight. I'll take the and run though.
Here's what I see for tomorrow as of now:
7:00pm
Illinois +3 HDT 67 Thrill Score
Illinois opened at BetOnline at +2.5 and Kenpom has Illinois +6
7:00pm
Clemson +9 RDT 32.6 Thrill Score
Clemson opened at BetOnline at +8 and Kenpom has Clemson +11
For those new the the system check this site for any questions. I'm going to try to put a couple more weeks of backtracking up for those trying to spot tweaks and trends.
Flyer your always working. I appreciate it. I cant get to anything until the baby goes to bed. I played both plays like normal tonight. I really like NAU's spot here tonight.
I liked Pitt alot, and almost always sprinkle a tiny bit in on the dogs, but like you I didnt do that tonight. I was scared off. Oh well onto tomorrow. Thanks for the work Flyers.
2-0 tonight if you played both. Pitt would have been a nice ML play too as a RDA. I didn't have the balls. Just played it straight. I'll take the and run though.
Here's what I see for tomorrow as of now:
7:00pm
Illinois +3 HDT 67 Thrill Score
Illinois opened at BetOnline at +2.5 and Kenpom has Illinois +6
7:00pm
Clemson +9 RDT 32.6 Thrill Score
Clemson opened at BetOnline at +8 and Kenpom has Clemson +11
For those new the the system check this site for any questions. I'm going to try to put a couple more weeks of backtracking up for those trying to spot tweaks and trends.
Flyer your always working. I appreciate it. I cant get to anything until the baby goes to bed. I played both plays like normal tonight. I really like NAU's spot here tonight.
I liked Pitt alot, and almost always sprinkle a tiny bit in on the dogs, but like you I didnt do that tonight. I was scared off. Oh well onto tomorrow. Thanks for the work Flyers.
Great night tonight guys. Hope some people had Pitt ML. I also played Texas but somehow managed to get it @ -1 .
I tried our system tonight using the NBA and Sagarin ratings tonight and it gave about 6 games and I played Orlando @ 7.5 and its probably the only game that's going to cover lol (lucky backdoor on a Reddick 3 too). Barring an Oklahoma City comeback it's going to go 1-5. B/c it was doing so bad I went with the opposite and took the Clippers, it may be something to keep an eye on. ***I know this is not the thread to share this, but I'm feeling lucky haha.***
I'm also keeping tabs on all the information JRivers put up as well as how college conferences fair w/ the system.
Great night tonight guys. Hope some people had Pitt ML. I also played Texas but somehow managed to get it @ -1 .
I tried our system tonight using the NBA and Sagarin ratings tonight and it gave about 6 games and I played Orlando @ 7.5 and its probably the only game that's going to cover lol (lucky backdoor on a Reddick 3 too). Barring an Oklahoma City comeback it's going to go 1-5. B/c it was doing so bad I went with the opposite and took the Clippers, it may be something to keep an eye on. ***I know this is not the thread to share this, but I'm feeling lucky haha.***
I'm also keeping tabs on all the information JRivers put up as well as how college conferences fair w/ the system.
From 11/21/2011 to 12/18/2011, there were 134 system plays. Those plays went 71-63 (53%). Of those 134 plays, fifty of them had a thrill score under 30.0. Those fifty plays went 27-23 (54%).
I will keep everyone posted as I continue to go through all of the plays.
As of now, there is no statistical evidence to suggest that the under 30 thrill score games should be taken out of the system.
From 11/21/2011 to 12/18/2011, there were 134 system plays. Those plays went 71-63 (53%). Of those 134 plays, fifty of them had a thrill score under 30.0. Those fifty plays went 27-23 (54%).
I will keep everyone posted as I continue to go through all of the plays.
As of now, there is no statistical evidence to suggest that the under 30 thrill score games should be taken out of the system.
Through Jan 1 2012 the under 30 games are 41-34. Starting to look like that filter will not help the system...I will continue to track till the present date though.
Great idea kirby, lets get something else that is simple like that, that might help the system
Through Jan 1 2012 the under 30 games are 41-34. Starting to look like that filter will not help the system...I will continue to track till the present date though.
Great idea kirby, lets get something else that is simple like that, that might help the system
the 1 st 1/2 plays seem to be working......Illinois + 1/2 winner...........clemson +3 another winner..saturday.7-0-1 Sunday 1-1 play the games your getting points!!!!! in the 1st 1/2 I think someone in this thread has followed 1 st 1/2 plays, what longer term stats do we have on this angle?????? thanks in advance.I think it's working
the 1 st 1/2 plays seem to be working......Illinois + 1/2 winner...........clemson +3 another winner..saturday.7-0-1 Sunday 1-1 play the games your getting points!!!!! in the 1st 1/2 I think someone in this thread has followed 1 st 1/2 plays, what longer term stats do we have on this angle?????? thanks in advance.I think it's working
just out of curiosity are you coming up with these plays by number crunching or does kenpom do it for you and your just posting what your subscription says too. Im interested in buying a subscription but dont know what that site offers for me
just out of curiosity are you coming up with these plays by number crunching or does kenpom do it for you and your just posting what your subscription says too. Im interested in buying a subscription but dont know what that site offers for me
just out of curiosity are you coming up with these plays by number crunching or does kenpom do it for you and your just posting what your subscription says too. Im interested in buying a subscription but dont know what that site offers for me
Go here https://kenpomvsvegas.blogspot.com/p/system-explained-and-faq.html
just out of curiosity are you coming up with these plays by number crunching or does kenpom do it for you and your just posting what your subscription says too. Im interested in buying a subscription but dont know what that site offers for me
Go here https://kenpomvsvegas.blogspot.com/p/system-explained-and-faq.html
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.