26-17-1 on Terp plays this season
On a nice little run to get my season on Terp games back to the "respectable" level. Terps had a gut-wrenching loss in 2OT at Miami the other night and just when I thought we had the deck stacked in our favor with the Cane foul outs, the subs bust our ass for the loss. Turge was ejected and the "Fuck You box" got him the second T and the showers. He isn't Gary.....yet.....but I like it. He is going to be a winner here if we can just keep Bino sober and from behind the wheel of his car.
The Tarholes come into Comcast at 4:00 Saturday with a squad that has the talent to win it all. That being said, a short blurb about Roy. Roy is a recruiter, a class guy and a players coach. That being said, he is average at best when it comes to the X's and O's. I don't think he adjusts well in-game BUT he typically has so much talent that he wins anyway. Turge is already proving himself to be a talent who can flat out coach, even when he has sub-par ACC talent this season. Give it time is all I will say.
UNC has tons of talent but I think the most troubling thing about the Holes is their dominance on the glass. They lead the ACC and most of the country in pounding the boards. The frontcourt is big and will cause the Terps problems. Len is tall, Weijs is tall but both are weak as shit. Len is the only motherfucker I have seen taller than maybe 6'5" that gets bitch slapped by guards when it comes to pure strength. I don't get it but it spells trouble for tomorrow. Pankey has big upside but he just disappears for long spurts. I like the progress by Padgett but he is one of the top offensive rebounders in the ACC becuase if you miss three layups in a row, you are in the ideal position to grab your own rebond each time. I think we have big issues in the paint tomorrow.
Stogs will likely go for 20+, and I think there is a good chance he goes for 30+. He doesn't quit shooting (hot or cold) and I have to admit, even though I am not a big fan, he can stroke it. Terps stand no chance if Mosley or someone else can't go for 15+. PeShon has been bad of late. Bad in the fact that we don't need him to score to win but he has to protect the ball and go for 7+ assists for us to be effective. He's been out of control lately and we don't have another true 1 so the shit needs to straighten out. I can see Stogs trying to counteract the UNC froncourt that is tops in the country and if the shots aren't falling, we get behind big quick. We don't share the ball well and the offense is Stogs with three crossovers, a jab step and a fal way three pointer about half the time. That's not offense ass clown.
UNC has the best frontcourt in the country bar-none. Barnes is a lottery pick and we have zero to stop him, especially if he takes his man outside. The line is a bit higher than I thought it would be but 13 is about what UNC was favored at Wake and they beat VT at VT by about the same. Both teams are probably slightly worse than the Terps but the line is within a couple points of where it should be.
The best play here is the under. 150.5 is surprising. The Terps are SO prone to long spurts with no points and UNC is not scoring like the UNC of the past few years. In fact, UNC plays decent defense limiting the opposition to about 38%. When the Terps miss, second chance points will be hard to come by. So.....we score sporadically, UNC doesn't run like they typically do, UNC plays above average D, Terps won't get any easy second chance points, Terps have limited scoring options......UNDER 151.
Play: UNDER 151 (double play)