YTD: 5-2
For those of you that have read my posts in the past, you know that I take a very statistical based approach to my analysis on totals. Tonight, however, there is a total that sets up very well situationally speaking.
Duquesne / George Mason Over 140
(Note: This opened on BOL at 137, and was 139 at all shops last night. I did not lock it in until this morning however, and played it at 140)
Admittedly, on the surface, there are not many results from GMU games this year to support an over in this range. To go one step further, GMU has only played one game in regulation that has exceeded tonight's total of 140. That game was vs Rhode Island and was sitting at 160 before OT. But to me, herein lies the value for tonight’s over.
Duquesne is the fastest and most offensively efficient team GMU has faced yet this year. Duquesne enters tonight’s game averaging 70.4 possessions per game, #37 in the country. The only other team that GMU has played this year that is ranked in the top 130 in the country is Rhode Island, and as already stated, this game was at 160 at the end of regulation. With respect to offense, Duquesne is also the most efficient opponent it will face up to this point in the season with the Dukes averaging 1.052 pts per possession, good enough for #81 in the country.
On the flip side, Duquesne has only had 3 totals that have played under tonight's total of 140. They played to 126 in their first game at Arizona, and then had back to back results of 124 and 125 vs Robert Morris and Penn St respectively two weeks ago. These results would be expected however as all three of these teams are ranked lower than #280 with respect to tempo and in the top #90 with respect to adjusted defensive efficiency.
The third characteristic that Duquesne brings to this over besides it’s fast play and efficient offense, is its lack of defensive intensity. The Dukes are allowing more than 1 point per possession (#192) this year, a stark contrast to last year’s team that finished the season ranked #45 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Could this go under? Of course it could, as previously stated, GMU has only had 1 game this year finish above 140 in regulation and enters the game only allowing 0.936 pts per possession. However, I believe this is a by-product of facing an offensive strength of schedule ranked #310 to this point this season. In facing an offensively efficient team like Duquesne that will press and get out and run, the situation is set for a game that should see 70+ possessions and get above 140.
As always, good luck if you decide to play