English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Nov 29, 2013 |
Forget Champions League and Europa League. Premier League football is back this weekend with six matches on the board Saturday.

We talk to Aron Black of Bet365 about the action coming in on some of Saturday's hottest fixtures.

Aston Villa v Sunderland (+105, +240, +320)

Why bet Aston Villa: A short week for the Villains as the club posted a decent 2-2 draw at West Brom Monday. Villa has not lost in its previous three matches in the league and, as we saw Monday, the return of Fabian Delph and Andreas Weimann from injury injects creativity and skill in the Villains' attack. Expect more on the weekend.

Key players out/doubtful: Jores Okore, Charles N'Zogbia, Joe Bennett, Gary Gardner

Why bet Sunderland: With just one point in six matches away from home, the Black Cats are the worst road club in the League. But it's hard to imagine with the clubs they've put to the sword recently (Man City, Newcastle). There is no question that they are playing better football under Gus Poyet, but it's time for players like Jozy Altidore to pick up the scoring slack that has marred the side thus far.

Key players out/doubtful: Carlos Cuéllar

2012-13 fixture result: Aston Villa 6, Sunderland 1

Key betting note: Sunderland has not scored in their last four matches away from home.

Cardiff v Arsenal (+550, +300, -163)

Why bet Cardiff: The Welsh soccer gods smiled on Cardiff last week as a last minute goal by Kim Bo-Kyung salvaged a draw with Manchester United. The home crowd will be buzzing once again with the top club in the league in town. It will be tough for the Bluebirds, but with confidence high and the side looking to climb out of the bottom quarter of the table, don't expect them to roll over.

Key players out/doubtful:
Rudy Gestede

Why bet Arsenal:
A win over hot Southampton last week erased memories of a hard 1-0 loss away to Man United. An incredibly-easy brace by striker Olivier Giroud upped the Frenchman's goal tally to seven on the season. Theo Walcott made his return in the aforementioned victory, but will probably start from the bench Saturday. How do you replace the attacking midfield triumvirate of Jack Wilshere, Santi Cazorla and Mesut Ozil?

Key players out/doubtful: Lukas Podolski, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ryo Miyaichi, Yaya Sanogo

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: The Gunners have played under the 2.5 goal total in four-straight matches.

Everton v Stoke (-163, +300, +525)

Why bet Everton: The Toffees don't lose a whole lot, but they've been a draw machine recently. Everton has drawn in three-straight matches and has yet to lose at Goodison Park this season. Romelu Lukaku was a man possessed in last week's 3-3 draw in the Merseyside Derby, scoring the second and third goals.

Key players out/doubtful:
Darron Gibson, Leighton Baines, Arouna Koné

Why bet Stoke:
Undefeated in three games, the Potters posted a very good 2-0 victory over Sunderland their last time out. Stoke needs momentum and building on that victory over the Black Cats is a good place to start. If anything, the Potters get scoring from all positions. Only Charlie Adam has more than one goal, despite the side tallying 12 on the campaign.

Key players out/doubtful: Marc Wilson, Kenwyne Jones

2012-13 fixture result: Everton 1, Stoke 0

Key betting note: Stoke has just one point in its previous four away matches.

Where the action is: "The action is all about the home team, and with bits and pieces on the Draw and Stoke win. The O/U 2.5 goals market sees split action, but I expect us to see over action as the game draws closer. Stoke have allowed goals when playing away, and if the Toffees can produce the second half display they had last week, then goals should come. As for the players to score, the action is all about Romelu Lukaku, and understandably so. He's got seven goals so far, and looks a likely scorer at anytime – he's +400 to be the First Goalscorer and +130 to Score Anytime."

Norwich v Crystal Palace (+100, +240, +333)

Why bet Norwich: Basically, the Canaries are the lesser of two evils here. They sit 16th with 11 points and are coming off a disappointing 2-1 loss to Newcastle last time out. They've managed just three wins on the season, but two of those have come at home at Carrow Road.

Key players out/doubtful:
Ricky van Wolfswinkel, Alexander Tettey, Elliott Bennett, Anthony Pilkington, Robert Snodgrass

Why bet Crystal Palace: Because if any of these two is 'hotter', it's Palace. The Eagles are coming off a 1-0 victory in their last effort and drew with Everton in the previous game. New gaffer Tony Pulis could spark the club to get out of the doldrums of the table and three points in Norwich will go a long way.

Key players out/doubtful: Adlène Guédioura, Marouane Chamakh, Yannick Bolasie, Jerome Thomas

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Norwich has played over the 2.5 total in five of its last six Premier League games.

West Ham v Fulham (-118, +250, +400)

Why bet West Ham: Remember when the Hammers hammered Tottenahm 3-0? Well, that's a distant memory as the club has just two goals in five matches since. They were dispatched 3-0 by Chelsea in their last match, so really, there's nowhere to go but up. Hosting Fulham, who is on the worst run of form in the league, is a perfect prescription.

Key players out/doubtful:
Mladen Petric, Alou Diarra, Andy Carroll, Razvan Rat, Ricardo Vaz Te

Why bet Fulham: Hard to say. They've lost four-straight matches, but all four were to teams in the top-10. The side lacks a killer pass in the final-third of the pitch, but Darren Bent and Dimitar Berbatov are still excellent goalscorers.

Key players out/doubtful: Hugo Rodallega, Damien Duff, Brede Hangeland, Sascha Riether

Key betting note: Three of West Ham's last four matches at Upton Park have gone over the 2.5 goal total.

Newcastle v West Brom (+105, +250, +300)

Why bet Newcastle:
Nobody in England is playing better football at the moment. The Magpies have won three-straight matches and have earned their spot at No. 8 in the table. Loïc Remy has come in and scored eight goals and made fans forget the name Demba Ba.

Key players out/doubtful: Ryan Taylor

Why bet West Brom: The Baggies will be a little disheartened, having botched a two-goal lead against Villa Monday. Still, they've mustered five points from their last three matches and sit a respectable 11th in the table.

Key players out/doubtful: Zoltán Gera, Ben Foster, George Thorne

2012-13 fixture result:
Newcastle 2, West Brom 1

Key betting note: Newcastle has lost just won of its six home games this season (3W, 2D, 1L)

Where the action is: "Stats wise, the +105 may look generous as Newcastle have been solid at home, losing only once in their last 6 home games. But the aforementioned ability of the Baggies on the road sees the price bigger than expected. Loic Remy and Shane Long see the bulk of the action in the goalscorer markets with Remy leading the betting at +450 First Goal and +130 Score Anytime. Long is +750 and +240 in the respective markets."

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