The last two days of basketball have served as a great reminder that once into the second round of the playoffs, even a series opening with two blowouts should become competitive.
The Indiana Pacers and Denver Nuggets each struck back on Friday night, both still down 2-1 in their respective series but both now also knowing a strong Sunday would even things up. There will be some tension today, certainly early from the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves.
If that is not intriguing enough, let’s add some player props in our free NBA picks as we look at Pacers vs. Knicks and Nuggets vs. Timberwolves on Sunday, May 12.
Best NBA player props today
- Brunson Under 6.5 assists (-115 at FanDuel)
- DiVincenzo Over 23.5 points (+106 at Pinnacle)
- Gordon Over 0.5 threes (-130 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 5-12 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for May 12
Prop bet #1: Jalen Brunson Under 6.5 assists
Jalen Brunson is injured. His foot injury unquestionably slowed him in the Game 3 loss, keeping him to 26 points and 10 of 26 shooting (38.5%). In the first two games of the series, he averaged 36 points on 56.8% shooting. In his first eight games of these playoffs, Brunson had averaged 35.6 points on 45.6% shooting.
Even more noticeably, Brunson’s minutes fell to 38:27 after playing five straight games of at least 43:32 before his initial injury shorted his Game 2 by a quarter. Brunson is not only playing a bit slower, he is playing a bit less.
And the Indiana Pacers already limit the New York Knicks' good looks. The Pacers ranked No. 1 in the NBA in the seven weeks after the All-Star Break in preventing opponents’ 3-pointer attempts, with only 33.1% of field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc.
The Knicks are struggling in that regard, taking just 32.3% of their shots in this series from long range, compared to 42.3% of their shots following the All-Star Break. That many fewer looks from three mean that many fewer chances at potential assists.
That has shown up in Brunson’s stat line, tallying only six, five, and six assists in three games thus far. The market has begun to adjust to this scarcity, dropping his prop to 6.5 at minus money from 7.5 at plus money to start the series, but that adjustment does not properly account for Brunson’s altered play with his foot injury, as well.
Jalen Brunson prop: Under 6.5 assists (-115 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Donte DiVincenzo Over 23.5 points
New York’s saving grace in this series has not just been its utter relentlessness and +17 rebounding edge. The Knicks are also shooting 48.8% from deep, going 39-for-80 in these three games. For context, they hit 37% of their 3-pointers in the final seven weeks of the regular season.
Much of this success has come from Donte DiVincenzo, 18-for-32 (56.3%) from beyond the arc in this series. In Game 3, he scored a game-high 35 points in part thanks to going 7 of 11 from deep.
But just as notably and perhaps more sustainably, DiVincenzo took 26 shots, his workload increasing in each game of this series. With Brunson unquestionably slowed, DiVincenzo has to do a bit more offensively.
There's just about no one else in the New York rotation that can pick up Brunson’s slack, in part because there is simply just about no one else in the New York rotation. DiVincenzo has neared 44 minutes in each game of this round for a reason. This will be his future until further notice.
Josh Hart is playing excellently, but scoring is not his role. Isaiah Hartenstein cannot create much for himself. Unless Deuce McBride or Alec Burks is about to explode as they supplement Brunson, the only option the Knicks have for added offense is more from DiVincenzo.
Donte DiVincenzo prop: Over 23.5 points (+106 at Pinnacle)
Prop bet #3: Aaron Gordon Over 0.5 threes
The Minnesota Timberwolves want Aaron Gordon to shoot. Maybe they shouldn’t, not after he's gone 6-for-9 from deep in the last two games, but they'll continue to give him open looks.
Gordon shot 29% from three this season. Last year, it was 34.7%. He is, by far, the worst shooter in the Denver Nuggets’ starting lineup. And they do not go to the bench for much, leaving Gordon as the worst shooter in Denver’s rotation outside of extreme circumstances.
For years, Minnesota has left Gordon open along the perimeter, nominally defended by Rudy Gobert, the Defensive Player of the Year actually spending more time worried about everyone else on the court than about Gordon.
Gordon will thus continue to get these looks. And for the Nuggets to even up this series, they probably need 3-point variance to tilt their way again. They want Aaron Gordon to shoot, though maybe they shouldn’t given his long-term track record.
If Gordon takes at least three open threes, and probably more, then it's only logical to expect him to make one of them.
Aaron Gordon prop: Over 0.5 made threes (-130 at DraftKings)
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