College four-play: Week 8 predictions

For some bettors, there are few things scarier than a big spread.

 

They see a big number when the odds come out and if it’s more than one digit and it starts with a “2” , that game is dead to them. I’m guilty of doing it too sometimes, but it shouldn’t be the case. These games can have some of the best value.

 

So, in the spirit of Halloween, it’s time to face our fears. This week I’ll look at some of the biggest lines on the slate and pick them correctly with astonishing ease and a large bottle of Pepto Bismo.

 

It was another big 3-1 performance for Four-play last week and I’m now 15-9-1 on the season.  

 

USC vs. Washington State (-42, 55.5)

 

USC starting running back Joe McKnight is suffering from turf toe and will be forced to sit out this week when the Trojans head to Pullman. You know he must be really hurting because there’s no way USC would take a 40-point underdog lightly after the infamous loss to Stanford last year.

 

Right?

 

"If we were playing somebody else I'd probably go," McKnight told the L.A. Times this week. "I can play with pain, but they just want me to rest up this week and come back next week for Arizona."

 

OK, so maybe the Trojans aren’t exactly treating this one like a BCS championship game. The sad part is that it doesn’t matter.

 

Washington State is down to its third-string quarterback, Kevin Lopina, who has five interceptions and no touchdown completions. Lopina also broke a vertebrae in September, which is just one of about a million injuries on the Cougs’ offense this season.

 

The top two running backs are also banged up, the line has seen more rotations than a turnstile, and starting tight end Devin Frischknecht is probably out.

 

Pick: USC

 

Colorado State vs. Utah (-23, 48)

 

CSU is one of those teams that has been improving steadily since the start of the season and this line hasn't caught up to that yet.

 

The Rams have won the overall yard margin in their last three games, even though they lost two of them. And after the way the Froggies beat up on BYU Thursday night, the Rams’ 13-7 loss to TCU last week is starting to look pretty decent.  

 

I have a feeling they’re going to give the Utes a tougher test than they bargained for Saturday.

 

Pick: Colorado State

 

Syracuse vs. South Florida (-24, 50)

 

It was almost hard to watch Syracuse coach Greg Robinson celebrate a first-quarter field goal last week like he was a contestant on the Price is Right who’d just won the Showcase Showdown.

 

Syracuse went on to lose to West Virginia, 17-6 of course, and the Orange are now 1-5 on the season.

 

Reports say Cuse can feel a win coming and maybe that’s what Robinson went all Prozac about. Reality says they’re going to get hammered by South Florida.

 

Matt Grothe loves beating up on Cuse and the Bulls have covered easily the last three meetings.

 

Pick: South Florida

 

Idaho vs. Louisiana Tech (-20.5, 55)

 

The Vandals probably aren’t the first team you think of betting on when you look at the college board on Saturdays. They rank just a fart away from last place in Division 1-A in just about every defensive category and the 70-0 loss to Arizona to start the season has enough stink to scare away anybody.

 

But I’m sayin’ there’s a chance this week.

 

Idaho catches Louisiana Tech in a tough spot, the week after they return from a long trip and a tough loss to Hawaii. The week before that, the ‘Dogs were whipped on the blue turf in Boise and next week they travel to the other side of the country when they visit Army at West Point.

 

It’s a sandwich game with a little extra spread on it.

 

Everybody loves sandwiches.

 

Pick: Idaho

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Posted by dwest718
6 years ago

BKR... you are the biggest square bettor I have ever seen in my life. Good luck. Hope you're not losing your life savings this weekend.
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Posted by jmitseff
6 years ago

USC will be covering by halftime!
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Posted by doobiebrother
6 years ago

1-1 (+0.7) this week. CFB 35-27-1 (+18.9) Memphis (+8) & Over (55.5) – Injury plagued ECU “D” has allowed 1435 yards and106 points L3W, and little chance of stopping #13 Memphis offense (465 YPG) that stuck 481 on solid Louisville “D” LW. ECU has scored 31. in L5 H vs. Tigers and if Pirates cover 7.5, the game will fly over. Over 6-1 Memphis RD 8< and 5-0-1 ECU HF 8<. Duke (+3) - Miami talented, but erratic, and struggling to find identity. Duke exactly the kind of team Canes don’t need to see right now. Highly intelligent, veteran, balanced, #13 in least TOs (7) and #11 in least penalty yards (34), with extra week to prepare. Key match up is 3rd down conversion %. Miami converts 31.8% and Duke allows 29% (vs. tougher schedule), while Duke converts 43.0%, and Miami allows 43.4%. ‘Canes 2-8 ATS vs. ACC. Northwestern (-4) - Wildcats flying under radar after outgaining MSU 459-297, but losing TO battle 3-0. 15 starters back from bowl eligible team, B10’s leading returning passer Bacher (3656 yards) and rusher Sutton (2996 yards), not to mention top 3 WRs. Northwestern 1-7 ATS as HF 7<, but playing more physical “D” under new DC Hankiwitz, who knows B10 well, coming over from Wisconsin. Cats #37 in total “D” (316 YPG), #7 in sacks (19), and #15 in TFL (44). Tough schedule spot for Purdue, who plays 7th straight week including OT game, 3rd road game in 4 weeks, and off B-to-B physical beatings vs. PSU and OSU. Purdue 2-11 ATS RD 3.5-7. Ole Miss (+11.5) - Gotta play Rebels here, as Bama 2-16 ATS HF vs. SEC, 0-9 ATS H vs. SEC revenge, and has no talent advantage. Ole Miss has NFL caliber players on both sides of line and not likely dominated. Rebs 8-2 ATS D 8>, 8-3 ATS A w/SEC revenge, 6-2 ATS A w/rest, 4-1 ATS vs. Bama, and have already won SU at Florida and lost by 2 at Wake. Miss/Bama game decided by 3 points each of L3Y. Ohio St. (-3) - Spartans not playing as well as scores, posting weak offensive totals in being outgained by Northwestern (459-297) and Iowa (309-275) in L2 games. Wells now 100%, and he and Pryor should do damage vs. MSU rush “D” ranked # 88 in YPR allowed (4.45). OSU holds advantage in 9 of 11 categories I match up, and is even in the other 2. Buckeyes 24-1 SU vs. Big 10 (12-0 A), 13-0 SU in Oct, 6-0 ATS A in Oct, 10-2 ATS A vs. Big 10, 8-2 ATS A vs. B10 revenge, 6-0 ATS RF 5<, and 6-0 SU vs. MSU (4-1-1 ATS). Spartans 2-7-1 HD 4< and 2-6 ATS H w/revenge vs. B10. Virginia (+4) – NC winning due to +11 TO margin, but offense #91 (326 YPG), just 268 YPG in L4, and without star KR/WR Tate. Virginia “D” has allowed 285 to ECU, 302 to Maryland, and 258 to Duke in L3. Cavs 33-7 SU H, 9-1 ATS vs. NC, 8-0 SU & ATS H vs. NC, 11-1 ATS H in Oct, and 9-1 ATS HD 6<. Heels 1-10 SU A in Oct, and 3-11 ATS F 6<. Colorado (-3.5) – KSU held on for W at A&M LW, but allowed 544 total yards, and still 3-14 SU A and hasn’t won B-to-B Big 12 road games since 2003. Buffs a far tougher opponent, and equipped with running game to keep Freeman off field. Largest gap in schedule strength on this week’s schedule (Colorado #18, KSU #102). 3 Memphis 3 Memphis/ECU Over 3 Duke 3 Northwestern 3 Ole Miss 3 Ohio St. 3 Virginia 3 Colorado
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Posted by BigLoad
6 years ago

Alrightee Brother I went 4-0 last week going against you on your first pick. ( as posted here) This week I am doing the same. I will go against you taking the 42 points with Wash State in case they decide to play the cheerleaders in the second half ( there are websites with that stuff) . I like your other three picks.
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Posted by KasperNV
6 years ago

I like your CSU play. They have been playing good as of late.
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Posted by KasperNV
6 years ago

I got Washington State +43. I will take my chances with a 6 touchdown spot.
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Posted by edmanz
6 years ago

YOU MEAN LOUSIANA TECH
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Posted by Islandstyle
6 years ago

South Florida to house!
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Top Response

Posted by doobiebrother
6 years ago

"1-1 (+0.7) this week. CFB 35-27-1 (+18.9) Memphis (+8) & Over (55.5) – Injury plagued ECU “D” has allowed 1435 yards and106 points L3W, and little chance of stopping #13 Memphis offense (465 YPG) that stuck 481 on solid Louisville “D” LW. ECU ..."