USA Today Sports

Manning struggles ATS in the cold, oddsmakers don't care

Perhaps the only person keeping a closer eye on Sunday’s weather than books and bettors is Broncos QB Peyton Manning.

In the week and a half lead up to Super Bowl XLVIII, more stories have been pumped out on Peyton’s problems playing in cold weather than any other Super Bowl angle. Even the controversial Richard Sherman well will run dry long before the media milks everything it can out of Manning vs. Mother Nature.

The forecast for Super Bowl XLVIII between the Broncos and Seattle Seahawks – the first outdoor cold weather Super Bowl – is calling for temperatures just below freezing, snow and possible rain before the confetti flies over MetLife Stadium. Which, for bettors, is perfect weather for fading one of the best passers in NFL history.

According to our ATS/Weather database, Manning is 8-14 SU, 7-14-1 ATS and 12-9-1 Over/Under in starts played in temperatures of 40 degrees or below for his career – covering the spread in just 34 percent of those games.

Manning went 6-11 SU, 5-11-1 ATS and 9-7-1 O/U in temperatures of 40 or below as quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts from 1998 to 2010, accustomed to playing home games in the warm indoor track of the RCA Dome and Lucas Oil Stadium in that span.

Since moving to Denver, playing home games in the thin air at Sports Authority Field, Manning is 2-3 SU and ATS in cold weather with a 3-2 O/U count the past two seasons.

Oddsmakers are aware of his struggles against the winter elements, but aren’t discounting Manning or the Broncos when it comes to the Super Bowl spread – or any spread for that matter.

“It’s tough to quantify previous outcomes for a line set for two weeks in the future,” Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “We don’t know what the weather will be. If it’s 30 degrees, people sweat in 30 degrees. I used to play hockey outside in 20-degree weather and would sweat like a dog.”

Korner says the lines are made with optimal playing conditions in mind, factoring in statistical models and the market perception. It’s the sportsbooks who must adjust to the extended forecast and public’s reaction to the weather.

And even with the mercury dipping in East Rutherford and the possibility of snow Sunday, Korner says when it comes down to it, people are going to bet who they think will cover the 2.5-point spread  – regardless of the weather.

“I don’t think the betting public gives a shit about that,” he says of Manning’s cold weather woes. “They’re going to play who they want to play. People coming into town aren’t thinking about the percentage of drop off in (Manning’s) play. They’re betting Peyton Manning or the Seahawks to stop him.”

The total for Sunday’s Super Bowl is set at 47 points.

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Posted by Spitdudes
7 months ago

Defense usually wins, but every so ofen an offensive team makes it all the way.. 2009 Saints 2006 colts 99 Rams But the key is Denver's D, which finally has its true 11 in place. The held Rivers to 17, they held Brady to 16, and I expect them to hold Wilson to a low number. Taking the game out of Denver is worth some points so I wont say they keep the trend going and hold them to 14, etc. Prater is big in this game. Denver 22-20 Take the points, and/or bet Denver on the money line.
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Posted by PLA2WIN
7 months ago

The broncos really haven't played a defence of this caliber, just look at their schedule this year. ???? The Giants beat the Pats twice with "D" and the Pats Beat the Rams both high powered offences. The superbowl is a different game because its for the Lombardi trophy. The only way Denver wins this game is if they win the turnover battle. TAKE THE 3 POINTS.
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Posted by jason1988
7 months ago

xx
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Posted by enemy619
7 months ago

everyone knows defence wins games! i feel thats enough for me to bet seattle.. manning throws picks.. ill take the points or sell them to make money and hope to win!
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Posted by choiOi
7 months ago

#1 offense...it's a seek and destroy offense attack!
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Top Response

Posted by choiOi
7 months ago

"#1 offense...it's a seek and destroy offense attack!"