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Where the action is: NFL playoffs mid-week line moves

Conference Championship Sunday is one of the biggest betting days of the year and the odds for the AFC and NFC title games have already seen adjustments – and it’s only mid week.

We talk to Aron Black of Bet365.com about where the action is and where the odds will end up come kickoff:

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons – Open: +3, Move: +4

Books weren’t stuck on the key number of three, quickly moving to 3.5 and as high as 49ers -4.5 with action coming in early on the road team. According to Black, money on the Niners is outnumbering action on the Falcons at 6-to-1 and this is “so far the biggest bandwagon game we have had in the playoffs."

“I don’t really see this changing, and can see San Francisco going -4.5 by game time,” Black told Covers. “Obviously, weather has no part to play in this game, so if San Francisco is getting the money now, they will still get played as the week goes on.”

While the 49ers are the popular spread pick, action on the moneyline for the NFC Championship is even. Atlanta opened as a +160 underdog to win outright and is currently being dealt as high as +175 in some markets.

“Those who like the Falcons are going straight up and ignoring the 4-point start,” says Black.

The total opened at 48 points and has since risen to 49.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots – Open: -9, Move: -8.5


Surprisingly, some online books have moved down from the opening spread of New England -9.

Action is coming in on the Ravens’ spread at a 3-to-1 pace while others are waiving the points and taking Baltimore on the moneyline to win straight up. According to Bet365.com, money on the Ravens to win SU is outnumbering action on the Pats’ moneyline at 9-to-1.

“There are many who feel that the nine is too high and the +325 straight up is tempting many to get down on the dog,” says Black. “It looks like most feel that if (the Ravens) can go to Denver as 9.5-point dogs and win at elevation in double overtime, then they should be able to do it in New England.”

Black says this line could continue to drop as Sunday inches closer, expecting the spread to come down as low as New England -8. And, much like last week, the late AFC game will be the biggest decision for books on Championship Sunday.

The total, which opened at 51 points, is leaning toward the over and is up as high as 52.5 at some online markets.

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Posted by gridironguy
1 year ago

newsflash: the SF-ATL line went as high as 4.5 late Monday evening and stayed there for a while
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Top Response

Posted by gridironguy
1 year ago

"newsflash: the SF-ATL line went as high as 4.5 late Monday evening and stayed there for a while"