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1* Pittsburgh (10:10 ET): It's tough to go against the Padres here, after they took a bad loss at home last night, and especially w/ James Shields pitching. But the fact is this team simply isn't very good right now while the Pirates are red hot, winners of seven in a row and outscoring opponents by a 46-14 margin. They are the play here.
Shields may be unbeaten in his 10 starts (6-0) w/ the team having won the last five times he's taken the mound, but he's hardly been dominant here in 2015. In fact, his ERA of 3.75 and WHIP of 1.203 are downright pedestrian numbers. A major concern for him has been giving up the long ball as he leads the team w/ 15 HR allowed in 62 1/3 IP. Pirates' starter Francisco Liriano, despite an unfortunate 2-7 TSR, has very similar numbers to Shields, which shows just how cruel this game can often be. Liriano is off a spectacular outing where he struck out 12 and allowed just 1 ER in a 9-1 win over the Mets. He has a 1.91 ERA in four road starts.
The Pirates homered three times yday en route to the rout (Note: I won w/ the Over). None of those were from Andrew McCutchen, but that's okay; he had three hits anyway & continues to be red-hot at the plate w/ a .314 batting average in May. The Pirates are simply a much better team than the Padres right now & we can get them at a great price here because of Shields' influence on the line. 1* Pittsburgh
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