The Wiz Of Odds: Putting a stop to the SEC hype machine

By JAY CHRISTENSEN | October 13, 2009 | 40 comments
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Jay Christensen covered college football, among other sports, for the Los Angeles Times and produces the popular college football blog TheWizofOdds.com.

It's truly one of the most remarkable inventions of the past 20 years. It costs nothing to operate, runs 24-7 without a hitch and never requires maintenance.

It’s the one, the only Southeastern Conference hype machine.

Many a college football fan — and bettor — has been swallowed in the annual hype surrounding the league. But this year is different. With a fat, new TV contract and powerful network behind it, the machine has been cranking it out like never before.

The willing lemmings lined up early, starting in August with the release of the coaches preseason poll. An unheard of five SEC teams were ranked in the top 13.

Mississippi actually rose to No. 5 after victories over Memphis and something called Southeastern Louisiana, which is said to be an accredited university. The Rebel quarterback, Jevan Snead, was in the top five of every Heisman list. Never doubt the machine's ability to sway opinion.

Then reality struck. Mississippi, with the cushiest of nonconference schedules, had to play games against conference opponents. It has lost two of three in league and Snead is tied for 92nd in NCAA passing with nine interceptions to go with his nine touchdown passes. Nice.

No wonder Mississippi is one of only seven Division I-A teams with two I-AA opponents on its schedule. That darn, old SEC is so tough, you can’t risk playing actual teams in nonconference play for fear of losing even more games!

Next came Louisiana State, which replaced Mississippi in the poll pecking order. The Tigers soared into the No. 4 spot on the flimsiest of credentials, winning two games they should have lost, including one where an SEC officiating crew was credited with an assist.

The hype had you believing LSU had Florida right where it wanted last Saturday — a dreaded night game in Baton Rouge (the Tigers never lose one of these!), with Tim Tebow still woozy from a concussion.

Overlooked was LSU’s offense, mediocre at best and ranked a dismal 99th as the captains gathered at midfield for the coin flip. Florida knew it, and Gator defenders did what they were supposed to do, suffocating the Tigers in a 13-3 victory.

SEC speed? You always hear about it, but where was it last Saturday, when the Vanderbilt Commodores marched into West Point as 10-point favorites against Army and lost, 16-13 in overtime?

In Starkville, Mississippi State played host to Houston. The Bulldogs were catching the Cougars at the right time because Houston was coming off a deflating loss to Texas El Paso, dashing any hope the Cougars had of playing in a Bowl Championship Series game.

That SEC theory was quickly shot to hell. Case Keenum made the Bulldogs look like Chihuahuas, passing for 434 yards and two touchdowns in Houston's 31-24 victory.

Gene Chizik did the unthinkable in two seasons at Iowa State. He took over a Cyclone program and actually made it worse, an accomplishment previously thought impossible. Chizik won five games in two seasons in Ames, but none of that mattered when Auburn, scrambling to find a coach, inexplicably hired Chizik.

After Chizik won his first five with the Tigers, twisted SEC logic actually turned this into 20 consecutive victories. How, you ask?

Chizik was Tiger defensive coordinator in 2003, when the team won its final two games, and 2004, when it went 13-0. Add it up and Chizik had won 20 in a row as a member of the Auburn staff!

This nonsense came to a screeching halt once the Tigers got away from a steady diet of Louisiana Techs and Ball States. Auburn traveled last Saturday to Arkansas and was trounced, 44-23, trailing at one point, 34-3.

What about Georgia, which was No. 13 in the preseason poll? The Bulldogs have given up at least 37 points in seven of their last 12 games. Seriously, how were they deserving of such a ranking? Chalk it up to the hype machine.

The reality is that the SEC in 2009 consists of Alabama, Florida and a bunch of nobodies. In nonconference games against Division I-A opponents, SEC teams are a pedestrian 14-11 against the spread. In nonconference play against teams from Bowl Championship Series conferences, the record is 4-7. That’s a .363 percentage, the worst of the six BCS conferences.

In alphabetical order, a look at how the other BCS leagues and Notre Dame compare against the spread in nonconference games against Division I-A and BCS opponents:

Atlantic Coast — 13-13 against I-A; 6-10 against BCS opponents.

Big East — 14-8, 9-3

Big Ten — 14-16, 8-5

Big 12 — 21-15, 6-6

Pacific 10 — 13-10, 7-5

Notre Dame — 1-4, 1-4

The clamoring started this week for Alabama and Florida to play not only in the SEC championship game, but the BCS title game as well. Given the damning evidence I’ve just presented, how could anyone in his or her right mind even begin to suggest such a scenario?

Perhaps they've been following the SEC hype machine.

40 comments
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aspire210
aspire210 says:
10/13/09 05:08PM

funny that SEC still has the best non-conference SU record of them all, as well as the last 3 national titles, two of which were a blow out and 1 of which the SEC was a major dog. The elite of the SEC beats the elite of any of conference, hands down.

THEMUGG
THEMUGG says:
10/13/09 10:33PM

No, they don't. The #'s are right there in front of you. I aw an article a few weeks ago ( I posted the link in a thread here) that shows that, for this decade, the Pac-10 has the best record in all non-conf. games vs other BCS schools.

The SEC has hyped itself into a pass......

nyduccie
nyduccie says:
10/13/09 10:36PM

What a great, accurate article. Too bad most of the media is too afraid to point out the obvious.

laythepoints
laythepoints says:
10/13/09 11:18PM

"Damning Evidence"?!!? Really? I can suggest such a scenario...How bout you get the "Great Pete Carroll" on the horn and tell him to quit sh*tting the bed against horrible teams right after beating "OVER HYPED" ever worse then horrible teams(Ohio State) by a FG. Or tell 'The Vest" to beat someone with a heat beat outside their conference and quit getting "BOAT RACED" by the SEC? Or how bout telling Oregon to get it done on the road..without a "fight". Notre Dame..LOL..That's funny..Can you get a "Memo" to Mack and "BIG GAME BOB" about playing DEFENSE?!?! Beamer ball? They already got trashed by the SEC. You may be correct that it's Florida, Bama and then a bunch of nobodies..but your TOP Teams from any conference get DISMANTLED against the the TOP of the SEC...SO....about that "Damning evidence".....oh yeah, you talked about Vandy, Miss st. (Bottom of the conference), isn't Houston at the top of the CONFERENCE USA, I hope they could beat Miss. st. LSU lost to #1 FLORIDA, and Ole Miss lost to #2 ALABAMA?!!? Auburn, they lost to another SEC team who lost to.....oh yeah another SEC team.

laythepoints
laythepoints says:
10/13/09 11:29PM

Further, It should be noted as it is not in your article...SEC is 24-5 SU out of conference this year, so really, what in the h*ll are you talking about? I think your problem was that you TRIED to suggest that the ATS record was a reflection of SU wins and losses, which you are rediculously mistaken...ATS bad, SU THE BEST, and I'm not even an SEC homer.

Tebow4Heisman
Tebow4Heisman says:
10/13/09 11:30PM

What a clown he must be to write that article. 3 National Championships in a row!!! Probably looking at 4. I would take Florida or Alabama and give up 7 points to any other team in the country. (on a neutral field)

His examples of SEC being weak is MS State and Vandy losing last week. Everyone knows those 2 are the doormats of the SEC.

Why doesn't he mention LSU beating Wash who beat USC.

alwayson22
alwayson22 says:
10/13/09 11:55PM

He also didn't mention UCLA going into Tennessee and winning. How did Georgia do in that scenario?

BURG2VEGAS
BURG2VEGAS says:
10/14/09 01:08AM

this is a great point ,i tell you what i beleive the big east is actually better than what most people think. the sec is fla/bama and the there is the rest

aspire210
aspire210 says:
10/14/09 01:17AM

USC is considered 1st or 2nd in pac-10, they got beat by washington, who was smacked around by LSU far away from home. LSU is 3rd AT BEST in the SEC. SEC has bad value for a better, but thats because people will back them. They give up points they shouldn't be giving up because the books know that you will back them. I would love to know who is going to topple bama or FL. Texas barely got by colorado last week. I worry more about nebraska than texas really. USC can barely get past OSU who can't win a bowl game to save their life. VT got ran over by bama on a neutral field.

Cincy might make it a game, but they have to get past USF first. Outside of those two the big east is a joke. WV has more turn overs than touch downs most games and pitt just plain can't compete.

Winner of SEC championship is going to be laying 7+ points to pretty much any other team in the nation. They may or may not cover, but they will win.

PrenticeGT
PrenticeGT says:
10/14/09 03:54AM

Jay, you are my new favorite writer. Thank you for finally having the marbles to say something no one else will.

I love how people say "the SEC won the last 3 national titles". Oh really? Since when did entire conferences get national titles? You SEC people are ridiculous. The bottom part of that league is laughable with teams like Vandy, Miss. St. and Kentucky. Until last weekend, Tennessee was awful (until they beat up on another bad team). Ole Miss hasn't beaten a good team yet.

What a mess ESPN has created with this SEC hype.

bibidiblublabla
bibidiblublabla says:
10/14/09 04:55AM

Did anyone check out that article where FLA flat out admitted that it would not schedule any teams like USC, Texas, or Ohio St ! and I'm not even talking bout home and homes, I mean not even for home games in the beginning of the season; Hell they wont even schedule mountain west teams! Boise? nope Fresno St Hell No! (guess you gotta keep room for all those 1AA schools huh) and I dont wanna here jack about how hard the SEC is...The Gators play no less than SIX home games a year!!!!!!! now add in that joke of a neutral game they play with UGA they are handed at least a +500 season every year....put that in ya pipe and smoke it! bottom line not sayin FLA is a bad team but they are being set up to look soft ; no "champion" should ever have not 1 but TWO 1aa schools on its schedule year in and year out! It's just sad....

Tebow4Heisman
Tebow4Heisman says:
10/14/09 10:06AM

The SEC is by far superior!! Just ask Ohio St. if they would like to play an SEC team in a bowl. And of all the SEC teams to bash on bibid you pick Fla??? Are you nuts??? I realize the bottom of the conference is poor just like any other conference. But as aspire said the SEC Championship game has turned into the Nat'l Championship!! There's no difference this year. Winner of Bama/Fla will roll over anyone else by 10+.

Also, Fla only has 1 Div 1AA schools on schedule. Charleston Southern. Troy and Fla Int'l are Div 1A. They also have never had 2 Div 1AA schools on schedule. NEVER

dalec
dalec says:
10/14/09 10:31AM

OKie dokie yankee boy,,, anytime you feel like taking up your conference's best and play the sec ,,, I will personally hold any bet you desire to make,.,., any ammount !!! good luck ,,,!

dalec
dalec says:
10/14/09 10:35AM

Hating on the SEC like means your not from here and jealousy is very unbecoming !

dalec
dalec says:
10/14/09 11:01AM

Ole miss is playn UAB you get 20 points !!!!!!

kclark
kclark says:
10/14/09 11:26AM

I belive that the article was well written and had a lot of good points. If you read the first part of the story on Covers home page, you would have read the sentence - "The Wiz of Odds explains why the conference is costing bettors major cash". So, those of you refering to SU wins your point is noted but this is about covering the spread. As far as talking about conferences, it's really a waste of time. I mean really, who cares? What really matters is how many ranked oppenents does a team play and how do they perform? I'm not talking about pre-season rankings but end of season rankings. At the end of the year, take a look at the top 5 teams and see how many ranked opponents they each played. It's usually about the same number and they are usually from various confrences. I've lived in various places of the country and believe me depending on where you are - EVERYONE thinks that their conference is the best and it's usually the teams that can't win that blame it on a conference schedule.

croell
croell says:
10/14/09 12:37PM

Look at the history of the SEC, no other conference can match depth or wins. What is this guy Jay

smoking?

UNCHEELSfan25
UNCHEELSfan25 says:
10/14/09 01:38PM

THANK GOD...AT LEAST THEIR IS ONE MAN IN THE COUNTRY WHO DOESNT BUY IN TO ALL THE ESPN HYPE. listen up SEC fans, you have 2 good teams, Florida and Bama, and hands down both are top 4 teams in the country, but this crap about there is never a bye week in the SEC, give me a break. This article pointed out a ton of garbage losses your confrence has had this year...Georgia has one of the worst secondary's i have ever seen and LSU's offense is pittiful. Another point I wish jay would've mentioned is how for the last 3 years florida has turned down USC for a home and home...oh.. is urban meyer a lil baby, for all you idiots who try and rip on carrol, he actually has guts, the man will play anyone anywhere and win 99% of the time. and last no one cares about the history and prestiege your confrence has, back in the 90's and early 2000's really doesnt matter right now.

Two things left, why do people so quickly forget that UTAH SMACKED Bama around last year and only a few years ago, i believe a team from the, ugh..midwest..mmm, oh ya a BIG TEN, MICHIGAN BEAT FLORIDA. keep drinking all your cool aid and smoking whatever you like, your confrence is loved by espn and everyone falls for the hype..

To show how crazy your people are...A LINEBACKER ON ALABAMA BEAT UP HIS GIRLFRIEND ON CAMPUS. THE FATHER OF THE GIRL CALLED NICK SABAN BEGGING AND PLEADING TO NOT SUSPEND THE PLAYER, SAYING HIS DAUGHTER PRETTY MUCH DESRVERD IT..HE ALSO YELLED ROLL TIDE LEAVING THE COURT ROOM, WOW PICK YOUR TEAM OVER YOUR DAUGHTER GETTING BEAT UP. CLASSY FANS...

stichael23
stichael23 says:
10/14/09 01:52PM

So why not also mention the Auburn wins against West Virginia at home and then Tennessee on the road (which looks alot better now after this weekend)....wait, nevermind that would completely **** up your logic.

Trey_Dogg
Trey_Dogg says:
10/14/09 01:54PM

USC would dominate or play with ANY SEC team...including Florida. in face, USC would BEAT Every SEC team, but Bama and Florida are teams that could in turn beat USC.

PAC-10 is way underrated. East coast bias is happy.

QMICH
QMICH says:
10/14/09 02:03PM

Tebow4Heisman pretty much sums it up! The dude would be nothing without all the scrub squads that FL plays. He certainly will make a great clipboard holder in the NFL!

UNCHEELSfan25
UNCHEELSfan25 says:
10/14/09 02:07PM

TN has beat OHIO, WESTERN KENTUCKY AND GEORGIA, and gone on the road once to play florida which was a pittiful preformance, if you wanna use TN to make a statement about the SEC, your confrence really is hurting...LOL, love seeing SEC fans get pi**** off when anyone rips on the confrence, also still waiting for explanation of the gators losing to michigan and alabama to utah, if u are the great confrence ever established in the united states how could you possibly lose those games

rf23
rf23 says:
10/14/09 02:30PM

SEC has be best talent hands down.. there are more players in the NFL that played in the SEC than any other conference.. and which school has more players playing on sunday than ANY and i do mean ANY other school?!? thats right a SEC school (LSU).. just because u suck at choosing winners and are losing money dont go bashing.. maybe u should just watch the games and stop gambling

zapbranagan
zapbranagan says:
10/14/09 02:36PM

What a joke this article is. You're basically bashing a whole conference because ole miss was overrated by the national media, while everybody in SEC country knew they were a joke. Every conference has it's bottom feeders that lose to teams they're not supposed to. Also, Houston beat OkSt. and I dont see you bashing them or the Big 12.

BWaters99
BWaters99 says:
10/14/09 02:40PM

I think who ever wrote this rediculous story should really take a look at all the real power house teams he thinks that are good and ask hiself why didn't they make it to the national championship? Well, jackass the answer is they SUCK GATOR NUTS! So take your little bs story about trying to hype up your alma matuer and go jump off a bridge. SEC is bar - non THE BEST CONFERNCE IN THE NATION! count the National Championship the SEC has .... oopps! I forget you dont have enough fingers and toes punk. GO Gators! Go SEC!

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