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Brewers7!...Wow its been a while. Hope all is well with you. As long as you're still around here Im sure something has been going right.
Good luck |
brewers7 | 23 |
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edited
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w3rdy303 | 3 |
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hahahaha 11-10 final
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VGPOP | 262 |
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this is the funniest moose ive ever witnessed
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VGPOP | 262 |
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NFL 2008 Record: 1-1-0 (-$7.00)
(75$ Per Game) Hey all, thought I'd start posting at Covers since Im going to be playing NBA here as well...Here are my writeups and picks for this weeks games.. Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns -1.5 (-110) The second I saw this game something seemed to feel right about betting the Browns. Cleveland is coming off of an abysmal start to the season, and has now rallied to win 3 out of 4, though nobody has really noticed. The Browns dropped a game earlier this season @ Baltimore 28-10 , and Im sure the loss will be fresh in their minds come Sunday.This game is a huge divisional game against Baltimore that the Browns have to take seriously. They know they have the tools to win (They beat Eli "The Cotton Gin" Manning) and, coming off of a squeaker against Jacksonville, should definitely be locked in against the Ravens. On the opposite end we have the Ravens who seem to be somehow overhyped this season. With Flacco having a funny name, and resurgence of Ray Lewis, the Ravens are 4-3 on the season, and have already pounded the Browns. Cleveland doesnt seem to pose a threat to this team that has won 2 in a row, and somehow I just dont think they'll be willing or able to match the intensity that the Browns will bring to this game. Last week was a cakewalk win against Oakland for the Ravens, and when things go too easy, things can definitely go wrong next week...As a poker player, I can attest. Green Bay +4 (-110) @ Tennessee Titans Majorly awesome spot here to take Green Bay. I love this spot for...Green Bay. Yes. Yes i do. Why? Well, firstly this is a team that had some low expectations at the beginning of the year. Aaron Rodgers has ran **** early this season, and after a BYE WEEK (Yes I love bye weeks for football teams because they get even more hyped up to play.) they get to attack the only undefeated team in the NFL. The Packers just beat the Colts, but I think they'll be even more amped for this game at Tennessee. Green Bay, definitely ready to rumble in Tennessee on Sunday. On the Titans side, they just won the biggest game of their season. Titans > Colts? Who knows, but they certainly know they've got the division locked up. The funny part about the Titans is that they havent beaten one good team besides the Colts, yet their confidence is probably through the roof. They are no doubt, a good team, but I dont see them matching the intensity of Green Bay in this game. This is a standard betting spot for me against a team coming off of a monstrous win and then playing a seemingly lesser team (in their eyes)..matched up, of course , against a team thats hungry on the other side....bet the latter. Great line for GreenBay.. |
w3rdy303 | 1 |
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T- Very interesting response, but let me try to distance this from the betting standpoint. Lets make things a bit easier here with a simpler and more to-the-point theoretical question: If I pick a random team with 8 minutes in the 4th quarter 500 times: How many of those teams will beat the opponent by 3 points or more at the end of those 8 minutes? Say we get 44%. Meaning 44% of the time the team we chose will beat the opponent by 3 or more within that 8 minutes. Will this percentage be accurate over the next 500 random teams?
ANSWER ME THIS, and i can go to bed sanely. |
w3rdy303 | 12 |
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Also, let me clarify Team X varies from team to team..Its a different team almost every time, its simply a matter of situation (Being down 3 ATS with 8 minutes left)..
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w3rdy303 | 12 |
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I guess logically, being down 3 against the spread with 8 minutes left will comeback a greater % of the time than being down 4 over the long run....That should be a fact, no? but you're saying these two percentages will vary too greatly within those logical confines to be reliable over 500 games?
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w3rdy303 | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by tatehill2000:
I think he may be refrencing it to a live betting scenerio??? anyway, the answer saadly is no, it wont necessarily help you, my advice to you since you do seem to know capping, is look for the MIDDLES in this scenerio, take a position, then look to middle and get 6-8 points,,, that is sage advice my frined tater
Thanks for the response tate. Would you mind elaborating on why it wouldnt help? I just cant get my head around it... given that the spread hits at 50% every year, why wouldnt the down 3 off spread % be the same if you are only taking time left and numeric deficit into account? |
w3rdy303 | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by nccashman:
May I ask why? Once the game is in the 4th quarter there is no chance to make money on it. So, respectfully, what's the point?
Good point. It is merely a theoretical question, but once we have an answer I can explain how I'd like to apply it. |
w3rdy303 | 12 |
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He was on the actual CNN Set by the way... none of that satellite half-asked crap... real deal ..just like sportscenter.. except a politics show.
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w3rdy303 | 15 |
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WTF IS THE WORLD COMING TO?
They asked him and another panelist about super-delegates and John Mccain's presidential image, as if they have some sort of intellectual authority over the average newspaper reader!?
I love Stephen A...but this is ridiculous...He seemed real nervous too, was talkin completely out of his ass and his subconscious mind knew it..
They accidentally cut him off the second time..ran out of time..
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w3rdy303 | 15 |
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Hey all,
I have a theoretical question to pose to the forum...This may seem a big long-winded but smart answers are much appreciated! Here's the scenario..
Using the NBA as an example, we all know that NEARLY 50% of dogs and 50% of favorites cover against the pointspread over the Long Run. Long run will be defined here as 500 games of data.
So, in assuming that dogs and favorites cover at 50%/50% against the spread over the long run..Here is my question:
In the 4th quarter of an NBA game, if TEAM X is down 3 points against the spread against TEAM Y and there are exactly 8 minutes left in the game, if I found and recorded the Cover/No Cover results of TEAM X being down 3 points on the spread for 500 games, would that percentage be reliable?
An example scenario:
The Kings are +3.5 dogs against the Spurs. The score is 90-84 Spurs. There are 8 Minutes left in the game, how many times are the Kings (Team X) going to make a 3-point comeback and cover the spread against the Spurs (Team Y)? The resulting percentage we will call "Z."
Essentially, the consistent variables being taken into account here are:
1. Time Left in the Game (8 minutes in our example)
2. Points Down on the Spread (3 points in our example)
3. We assume Dogs and Favorites consistently hit at 50/50 when the score is 0-0 and there are 42 minutes left in the game.
Is Z a reliable percentage to predict long run future results in that same scenario ( Team X Down 3 on the spread with 8 minutes left) once 500 Cover/No Cover results have been recorded?
Thanks guys! Looking forward to your answers. Please feel free to pose clarification questions as well...
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w3rdy303 | 12 |
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Who else thinks these guys are the greatest thing to hit planet earth...
always puts me in a good mood
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w3rdy303 | 7 |
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:-o |
wallstreetcappers | 18 |
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Van,
Thanks for the response... Nuf said.. but how much money are we talking here? Are you moving many thousands of dollars to lock in 2% of that per bet? or is it something you can do on a small scale...
Also, could you briefly talk about how the commissions they take come into play?
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w3rdy303 | 9 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BigGame90:
i would say check out the late night lines... check out the books that show where the moneys at (if you can believe what they say) and see if the majority of the moneys on a public team ie have been featured on TV or talked about by everyone, or coming off a huge win.... keep us posted on that though because that would be a great bet if lines are truly moving 2 or more points in a day.... usually i see .5 to 1.5 at the most... gl tho
I will keep you updated. |
w3rdy303 | 8 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BigGame90:
2% is not bad at all.... most books charge the reg 10%...so when you try to "middle" you either win 2 bets or you lose the juice on one bet... you have to get your first bet in early when you expect the line is off, or you feel like people will hammer one side and wait till tip off for the other.. if you can get 2 points i feel its worth it... Thanks for the response..I am seeing most lines move way more than 2 points in a given day on matchbook...Not that its particularly predictable, but in a couple cases per day, after some practice and past history study maybe I could get the hang of it... Anyone with any experience doing this? |
w3rdy303 | 8 |
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How is it dangerous? You can bet the same spread line on both sides..and the odds can move on the same spread line on either side..thus, at worst its a push
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w3rdy303 | 9 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Hank55:
I actually tracked line movements for a year or so at several on-line sites and found that you cannot consistently predict a games outcome by line movement alone.
Hank, Im not talking about predicting the outcome... Im talking about predicting line movements/money flow on a game..if too much money is bet on one side at matchbook the line moves.. then you can bet the same amount on the other side and make profit. Nobody has tried this? |
w3rdy303 | 8 |
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