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Barnstormers +7.5 BOOK IT! |
icemantbi | 17 |
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Just noticed a mistake...take that LSU game off of the list...Florida's next game is against LSU, but the Tigers have a game this week @ Georgia.
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aro17_9 | 4 |
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No, this isn't my record...but I should have caught on this trend earlier....
Teams who play FLORIDA the following week:
Troy (-7) @ Bowling Green....L 31-14
UCLA @ Tennessee (-10.5)....L 19-15
Louisville @ Kentucky (-12.5)....W 31-27
LSU (-12) @ Mississippi State....W 30-26
Teams who play NOTRE DAME the following week:
W. Michigan @ Michigan (-13)....W 31-7
C. Michigan @ Michigan State (-14.5)....L 29-27
No. Illinois @ Purdue (-11.5)....L 28-21
Washington (8.5) @ Stanford....L 34-14
Teams who play USC the following week:
Navy @ Ohio State (-22)....W 31-27
Idaho @ Washington (-20)....W 42-23
SMU @ Washington State (4)....W 30-27
California (-5) @ Oregon....L 42-3
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aro17_9 | 4 |
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Missouri @ Nevada
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aro17_9 | 3 |
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Here are my computer analysis results for week four. A couple of games jump out at me and I will look at them harder before making plays. (They are the ones highlighted). Last week was a good week for the totals but not so much for the spreads. With three weeks of data in the books on the new season, most lines are very consistent with the actual lines.
Week 3 Totals: 35-17 (67.31%)
Week 3 ATS: 27-25 (51.92%)
YTD Totals: 81-57 (58.70%)
YTD ATS: 77-61 (55.80%)
Mississippi @ South Carolina
48.0 2.9 Missouri @ Nevada 70.2 12.9 South Florida @ Florida State 50.0 -15.1 North Carolina @ Georgia Tech 45.0 -0.4 Minnesota @ Northwestern 49.7 3.6 Indina @ Michigan 51.6 -15.9 Buffalo @ Temple 48.7 -1.2 Michigan State @ Wisconsin 59.3 -0.6 Fresno State @ Cincinnati 55.3 -13.6 Southern Miss @ Kansas 58.7 -12.0 LSU @ Mississippi State 46.6 10.0 Marshall @ Memphis 50.5 -4.6 Wake Forest @ Boston College 39.7 -0.7 San Diego State @ Air Force 53.1 -22.0 UNLV @ Wyoming 51.4 7.1 Western Kentucky @ Navy 52.6 -27.8 Idaho @ Northern Illinois 51.4 -23.0 California @ Oregon 63.0 -3.0 Rutgers @ Maryland 50.2 4.6 Central Florida @ East Carolina 45.0 -14.6 Pittsburgh @ N.C. State 45.4 6.7 UTEP @ Texas 62.7 -33.8 Miami (FL) @ Virginia Tech 47.3 -3.3 TCU @ Clemson 38.7 0.1 Illinois @ Ohio State 49.9 -16.0 Arkansas @ Alabama 49.7 -22.0 Akron @ Central Michigan 58.8 -13.9 UL-Monroe @ Florida Atlantic 56.3 -6.6 Troy @ Arkansas State 51.9 4.3 Florida @ Kentucky 54.2 28.7 Colorado State @ BYU 58.3 -21.4 Miami (OH) @ Kent State 51.6 -5.6 Mid Tenn St. @ North Texas 55.7 10.8 Ohio @ Tennessee 45.6 -19.7 UL-Lafayette @ Nebraska 54.3 -25.8 Boise State @ Bowling Green 56.9 20.1 Arizona State @ Georgia 58.2 -12.4 Army @ Iowa State 46.2 -5.8 Ball State @ Auburn 46.0 -29.1 UAB @ Texas A&M 58.6 -10.0 Toledo @ Florida Int'l 49.3 -5.4 Louisville @ Utah 50.1 -18.9 Arizona @ Oregon State 43.0 -4.5 Vanderbilt @ Rice 49.2 3.4 Iowa @ Penn State 42.6 -7.2 Notre Dame @ Purdue 58.1 3.3 Washington @ Stanford 52.9 -6.1 Texas Tech @ Houston 77.2 5.9 New Mexico State @ New Mexico 46.0 -12.5 Washington State @ USC 52.6 34.8 |
aro17_9 | 3 |
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Double--do you have the rest of your point spread rankings? I like to compare them to mine each week
Good luck this week!
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DoubleUp4Life | 235 |
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If you want more reason to bet Army, here it is… Starting CB Kennard Banks and two others (Cleyon Laing and Kevin Hamlin) have been suspended indefinitely for marijuana charges....this happened this morning. Laing is back-up defensive end and you don’t need to know anything about Hamlin. |
TRAIN69 | 13 |
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The Georgia/Arkansas game suprised me a bit...but at the same time that included Moreno & Stafford.
West Virginia/Auburn looks pretty even. If Rich Rod was still at WVU, I would play that for sure... Right now I like these plays:
Florida (would take them up to 35...Meyer is going to try and run up the score)
Alabama (depends how much they want to put on N.Texas. They could win 70-0).
Boise State (That defense has looked really good so far and I think they will shut down Fresno State)
Oregon State (They always play well at home and if anyone remembers that drubbing they took two years ago, revenge should be on their mind)
Utah (Oregon still has not impressed me and I think Utah could hang around and pull out a victory as well)
I will have to look at a couple other games a little more closely before I decide on final plays.
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aro17_9 | 3 |
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Last Week Totals: 27-19 (46-40 YTD) Last Week ATS: 26-20 (50-36 YTD) For those who haven't read before, I have a computer formula to come up with totals for both teams. My football numbers include power rankings, HFA, SoS, and PF & PA against D1 competition only. I have used the stats from last year and added this year's games as well. My guess is towards mid-season that the numbers will even out a bit more because more weight will be added to more recent games (note--numbers on teams such as Buffalo and Ball State are still bringing high numbers because of last year's high-powered teams). WEEK THREE: Georgia Tech @ Miami (FL) -3.7 47.4 Boise State @ Fresno State 13.7 49.1 Louisville @ Kentucky -15.3 48.7 Eastern Michigan @ Michigan -19.2 53.8 California @ Minnesota 15.8 50.2 East Carolina @ North Carolina -7.9 43.1 Temple @ Penn State -26.1 53.2 Boston College @ Clemson -6.3 44.1 Ball State @ Army 1.9 40.5 Duke @ Kansas -13.4 42.3 Northern Illinois @ Purdue -7.7 48.2 Ohio State @ Toledo 24.7 52.2 North Texas @ Alabama -42.7 62.5 Mid Tenn St. @ Maryland -11.3 48.7 Wyoming @ Colorado -9.3 34.6 Tennessee @ Florida -30.2 48.8 Indiana @ Akron -10.0 51.4 Nebraska @ Virginia Tech -2.3 48.1 Tulsa @ Oklahoma -22.2 61.5 UAB @ Troy -12.6 55.1 Michigan State @ Notre Dame -8.3 50.1 USC @ Washington 25.4 52.0 Utah @ Oregon 2.8 57.2 Virginia @ Southern Miss -7.8 45.4 Arizona @ Iowa -6.5 48.3 Connecticut @ Baylor -5.5 43.4 Florida Int’l @ Rutgers -12.0 51.9 Nevada @ Colorado State 2.6 60.0 San Diego State @ Idaho -1.0 54.0 SMU @ Washington State 9.5 50.7 Navy @ Pittsburgh -5.2 48.7 Cincinnati @ Oregon State -6.3 51.4 Utah State @ Texas A&M -12.9 58.2 Mississippi St. @ Vanderbilt -12.6 35.6 Bowling Green @ Marshall -10.4 44.0 Northwestern @ Syracuse 4.0 47.8 Rice @ Oklahoma State -27.7 69.8 Florida State @ BYU -7.9 54.4 Iowa State @ Kent State -0.7 46.5 Miami (Ohio) @ Western Michigan -16.2 48.0 Florida Atlantic @ South Carolina -18.5 44.1 UL Lafayette @ LSU -22.7 53.0 Air Force @ New Mexico 10.4 45.1 Buffalo @ Central Florida 1.8 49.3 West Virginia @ Auburn -0.2 44.0 Georgia @ Arkansas 9.6 50.7 UTEP @ New Mexico State 16.6 53.5 Texas Tech @ Texas -16.3 69.1 San Jose State @ Stanford -13.8 45.6 UL-Monroe @ Arizona State -18.6 49.0 Kansas State @ UCLA -7.3 43.9 Hawaii @ UNLV -5.5 55.7 |
aro17_9 | 3 |
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Anyone else think this is a good play? The under has hit 12 years in a row...
Neither offense looked good last week and both defenses seemed to be on top of their game (until late for Georgia).
Am I missing something to not take the under???
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aro17_9 | 1 |
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UCLA @ It’s all about building up the team’s spirits to get ready for SEC play. UCLA 10 Ranked team? Check. Stud quarterback? Check. Star player coming back from suspension? Check. Easy non-conference opponent? Check. Public loves the favorite? Checkmate. Okay, I truly believe UTEP 30
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aro17_9 | 9 |
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WEEK TWO PLAYS!!!
Both teams will struggle early this year in the pass game with Stanford @ Wake's offense struggled a little bit last week against Baylor. I expect that they will have those problems fixed for this weekend's game. Riley Skinner is a dependable QB and Wake has an experience offensive line. They did miss Alphonso Smith and Aaron Curry last week against Baylor. Stanford is starting redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck. They had an easy time disposing of Stanford 17 |
aro17_9 | 9 |
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Early leans with my numbers in red and spread in blue Will take a closer look at these games before I decide on plays. Stanford @ UCLA @ Purdue @
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aro17_9 | 9 |
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Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
How well did your program do in basketball?
Also, what point differential is considered a play?
Im assuming you were using last years stats for week 1 & it will probably give you different results when you start to use this years stats, hopefully better results.
The major difference for basketball is there is a lot more continuity between years because of players that play all four years, coaches who have systems in place, etc. I also have many more stats used in basketball (off & def efficiency, tempo, and a ton more that I get from kenpom.com). As of right now, my football numbers basically have power rankings, HFA, SoS, and PF & PA against D1 competition only. Last year conference computer numbers for basketball (only used power conferences): O/U: 56.24% ATS: 59.81 % Non-conference (power conferences + top teams such as Gonzaga, Memphis, etc.) O/U: 53.90% ATS: 57.62% My week one posted plays on here went 1-2 because I think I added too much human element in it.... What I think I am going to do after a couple of weeks is use around 5 for a total and 3 for the point spread. I have used the stats from last year and added in week one this year as well. My guess is towards mid-season that the numbers will even out a bit more because more weight will be added to more recent games. Example: They system still had big wins for Ball State, Buffalo, and Utah last week because of their stats from last year. |
aro17_9 | 9 |
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South Florida @ USC @ Purdue @ |
aro17_9 | 9 |
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Notre Dame @ Michigan 48.8 2.2 Brigham Young @ Tulane 57.2 21.7 UCLA @ SMU @ UAB 54.8 -9.9 Air Force @ Rice @ Texas Tech 68.9 -22.1 Vanderbilt @ LSU 44.9 -10.9
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aro17_9 | 9 |
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I have a computer formula that I have used during college basketball to predict scores. This is the first year I have tried it on football, with mixed results from week one. **PLEASE NOTE** This is just what the numbers have predicted for games. I would not bet on every game as many totals are VERY close to the actual spread. Week 1 O/U Record: 19-21 (47.50%) Week 1 ATS Record: 23-17 (57.50%) Clemson @ Georgia Tech 47.5 -5.2 Western Michigan @ Stanford @ Central Michigan @ Duke @ Army 37.2 2.6 Troy @ Florida 63.8 -36.9 Marshall @ Virginia Tech 36.4 -18.5 East Carolina @ |
aro17_9 | 9 |
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I have just started using a computer analysis this year for college football. I have used one in the past few years for college basketball but I was interested to see how it would perform for college football. It's based entirely on points scored and points allowed (against D1 schools only) and combines previous years results with more emphasis on more recent games.
The biggest problem I have run into is suprise teams from the year before. Two examples from this year are Ball State and Buffalo. Since both teams differentiated from their norm last year, I have basically removed them from any system bet I will make until the middle of the season until I can get new numbers on them.
The only other difference I have is with my basketball formula, it includes stats from kenpom.com such as tempo, offense and defensive effiency, etc. If someone could make a football version of his systems, I think it would be a great tool to use!
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AtlFader | 90 |
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The good ol' state of Iowa rivalry game. The line opened up at +7 with an O/U of 44 and has gone to 6.5 and 45.5. As of right now, it looks like some rain is in the forecast across the central part of the state from Friday until Sunday. Some of you might recall a rain soaked field last year in Iowa City when the Hawkeyes won 17-5.
This game used to not be too much of a rivalry when the Hawks won 15 in a row until 1998. Since then, the sides have gone back and forth with Iowa State winning five in a row after breaking the streak but only two of the last six. However, during the last 10 years, the Cyclones own the ATS record, going 9-1 during that time.
Emotion is a HUGE factor in this game. Many players that are from the state have family loyalties tied in for generations. There are players on the Cyclones roster who feel they got snubbed by not getting scholorship offers from the Hawkeyes. Although players and fans won't tell you the truth, this game usually does mean more for the Iowa State Cyclones rather than the Hawkeyes. Usually, the goal for Iowa is to compete and win a Big 10 Championship while the number one goal for Iowa State is to BEAT IOWA. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise!
Last week, Iowa played 1-AA team, Northern Iowa and escaped with a 17-16 win thanks to blocking TWO field goals in the final seven seconds of the game. Don't let that 1-AA fool you though, UNI is a contender for the FCS champsionship year after year and some of the players have the same thoughts about not getting offers from Iowa.
A couple things that stood out to me about the game. UNI had success running the ball in the spread formation (top two defensive lineman gone from last year Kroul & King) and also had an easy time passing the ball. Iowa loves, loves, loves staying in their base 4-3 formation regardless if the opposing team goes to a spread formation or not. On third downs, they will use a nickel package, but they put so much trust on their linebackers to make plays.
Iowa's rushing offense looks like it might be in trouble. They could not open holes for O'Meara or Robinson. For those who don't know, Jewel Hampton, the projected number one back for this season is out for the year with a knee injury. They announced last night that Adam Robinson will get the start this weekend. Robinson did look better than O'Meara and he found the end zone to go along with around 65 yards on 15 carries.
A key quote from QB Ricky Stanzi after the game, "We looked around at each other during the first half and finally said to ourselves, hey these guys can play a little bit." My guess is that the coaching staff and the players were already looking towards this week.
With the hiring of Paul Rhoads, there has been a little optimism surrounding the Cyclones. Rhoads knows the Cy-Hawk series well being a coordinator earlier in his coaching career for the Cyclones. Rhoads number one goal is to take control of the state and you do that by beating Iowa.
As for the team, they opened with a win against I-AA team North Dakota State, 34-17. The Cyclones are led by dual threat quarterback Austen Arnaud. He was very inexperienced last year and along with the rest of the young players went through growing pains and was probably around a coach who didn't really want to be there. Arnaud is joined in the backfield by Alexander Robinson who can carry a work load and his favorite target is receiver Marquis Hamilton. The offense, especially if they give different looks to Iowa, is capable of putting up some points.
On the opposite side of the ball, the Cyclones don't have as near as many playmakers. ND State gashed them for over 200 yards of rushing offense. The secondary is very small and if the weather cooperates, the Hawkeyes should be able to exploit that with their receivers.
Special teams is also another big factor in these games. Iowa State's punter Mike Brandter is a four year starter and has a big leg kicker Grant Mahoney is starting to come around after last year's debacle against Iowa (1-4). As for the Hawks, they do return punter Ryan Donahue who has averaged over 41 yards in both years has a Hawkeye and kicker Daniel Murray who is now famous for his kick against then championship hopeful Penn State last year.
Both teams will be up and ready for this game and as I said before, especially the players from the state of Iowa. Some of them take it personnel while others have been waiting to extract revenge or get family dominance! No matter how bad Iowa State has been in recent years or Iowa good, Iowa State shows up to play. With a new system and coaching staff in place, they Cyclones should be ready for a challenge on Saturday morning (11:00 AM local time). Judging by their performance last week, the Hawkeyes have been preparing for this game as well. IF the weather is supposed to be rainy again, this will help the Cyclones try to slow down the Hawks. As usual, expect a low scoring game that one or two big plays decide the outcome. I am staying away from a bet on either side but if it jumps back up to 7, I might go with the Cyclones. Either way, I will be taking the UNDER in this game!!
My prediction:
Iowa 23 Iowa State 17
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aro17_9 | 8 |
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Chicago has won six of Zambrano’s last seven outings against the Pirates dating to Sept. 8, 2007, and he’s 3-0 with a 3.49 ERA in those games.
Zambrano is 6-1 with a 3.97 ERA in 12 career starts at PNC Park.
August is typically Big Z's worst month of the year and he tends to rebound in September like his last start ( 7 innings, 1 ER).
His road ERA this year is much better than his home (3.03 to 4.64).
I would back him further if Koyie Hill is the catcher rather than Soto (opp. BA is .232 this year with Hill and .275 with Soto)
The Cubs are 8-2 against the Pirates this year and this is one of the few teams that have dominated lately, even going 14-4 against them last year.
All that being said and add in the fact that Kevin Hart is facing his former team, sounds about right for the Pirates to win this game...
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MakaveliThaDon | 34 |
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