I have a computer formula that I have used during college basketball to predict scores. This is the first year I have tried it on football, with mixed results from week one.
**PLEASE NOTE**
This is just what the numbers have predicted for games. I would not bet on every game as many totals are VERY close to the actual spread.
I have a computer formula that I have used during college basketball to predict scores. This is the first year I have tried it on football, with mixed results from week one.
**PLEASE NOTE**
This is just what the numbers have predicted for games. I would not bet on every game as many totals are VERY close to the actual spread.
Also, what point differential is considered a play?
Im assuming you were using last years stats for week 1 & it will probably give you different results when you start to use this years stats, hopefully better results.
Also, what point differential is considered a play?
Im assuming you were using last years stats for week 1 & it will probably give you different results when you start to use this years stats, hopefully better results.
Also, what point differential is considered a play?
Im assuming you were using last years stats for week 1 & it will probably give you different results when you start to use this years stats, hopefully better results.
The major difference for basketball is there is a lot more continuity between years because of players that play all four years, coaches who have systems in place, etc. I also have many more stats used in basketball (off & def efficiency, tempo, and a ton more that I get from kenpom.com). As of right now, my football numbers basically have power rankings, HFA, SoS, and PF & PA against D1 competition only.
Last year conference computer numbers for basketball (only used power conferences):
O/U: 56.24% ATS: 59.81 %
Non-conference (power conferences + top teams such as Gonzaga, Memphis, etc.)
O/U: 53.90% ATS: 57.62%
My week one posted plays on here went 1-2 because I think I added too much human element in it....
What I think I am going to do after a couple of weeks is use around 5 for a total and 3 for the point spread.
I have used the stats from last year and added in week one this year as well. My guess is towards mid-season that the numbers will even out a bit more because more weight will be added to more recent games. Example: They system still had big wins for Ball State, Buffalo, and Utah last week because of their stats from last year.
Also, what point differential is considered a play?
Im assuming you were using last years stats for week 1 & it will probably give you different results when you start to use this years stats, hopefully better results.
The major difference for basketball is there is a lot more continuity between years because of players that play all four years, coaches who have systems in place, etc. I also have many more stats used in basketball (off & def efficiency, tempo, and a ton more that I get from kenpom.com). As of right now, my football numbers basically have power rankings, HFA, SoS, and PF & PA against D1 competition only.
Last year conference computer numbers for basketball (only used power conferences):
O/U: 56.24% ATS: 59.81 %
Non-conference (power conferences + top teams such as Gonzaga, Memphis, etc.)
O/U: 53.90% ATS: 57.62%
My week one posted plays on here went 1-2 because I think I added too much human element in it....
What I think I am going to do after a couple of weeks is use around 5 for a total and 3 for the point spread.
I have used the stats from last year and added in week one this year as well. My guess is towards mid-season that the numbers will even out a bit more because more weight will be added to more recent games. Example: They system still had big wins for Ball State, Buffalo, and Utah last week because of their stats from last year.
Both teams will struggle early this year in the pass game with North Carolina losing their playmakers at receiver and UConn's Frazier looked ugly running the no-huddle last week against Ohio. UConn does have a strong offensive line and a couple decent backs, but it will be strength against strength but UNC defends the run really well and has nine starters back from the defense last year. The strength of the UConn defense is the secondary, so I expect UNC to pound the ball early and QB Tyler Yates will make enough plays and the UNC defense will shut down UConn.
North Carolina 26
Connecticut 17
Stanford @ WakeForest
Wake's offense struggled a little bit last week against Baylor. I expect that they will have those problems fixed for this weekend's game. Riley Skinner is a dependable QB and Wake has an experience offensive line. They did miss Alphonso Smith and Aaron Curry last week against Baylor. Stanford is starting redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck. They had an easy time disposing of WashingtonState last week but it will be more difficult with the cross-country flight and the early morning game. Skinner will make the plays that need to be made and Luck will turn the ball over a couple of times in a hostile environment.
Both teams will struggle early this year in the pass game with North Carolina losing their playmakers at receiver and UConn's Frazier looked ugly running the no-huddle last week against Ohio. UConn does have a strong offensive line and a couple decent backs, but it will be strength against strength but UNC defends the run really well and has nine starters back from the defense last year. The strength of the UConn defense is the secondary, so I expect UNC to pound the ball early and QB Tyler Yates will make enough plays and the UNC defense will shut down UConn.
North Carolina 26
Connecticut 17
Stanford @ WakeForest
Wake's offense struggled a little bit last week against Baylor. I expect that they will have those problems fixed for this weekend's game. Riley Skinner is a dependable QB and Wake has an experience offensive line. They did miss Alphonso Smith and Aaron Curry last week against Baylor. Stanford is starting redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck. They had an easy time disposing of WashingtonState last week but it will be more difficult with the cross-country flight and the early morning game. Skinner will make the plays that need to be made and Luck will turn the ball over a couple of times in a hostile environment.
It’s all about building up the team’s spirits to get ready for SEC play. Tennessee did not hold back on Western Kentucky last week. After traveling to California last year, I’m sure some players have revenge on their mind as well. They have playmakers on offense with Montario Hardesty and freshman Bryce Brown to go with receiver Gerald Jones. If Crompton finds consistency during the season, the Vols could really surprise some teams. They also have that all-world safety Eric Berry as well. UCLA has a good defense but the offense will struggle to get things going especially when freshman quarterback Kevin Prince makes his first road start. Kiffin wants to dominate early and often and his team is poised for a blowout game.
Tennessee 31
UCLA 10
Kansas @ UTEP
Ranked team? Check. Stud quarterback? Check. Star player coming back from suspension? Check. Easy non-conference opponent? Check. Public loves the favorite? Checkmate. Okay, I truly believe Kansas SHOULD dominate this game. But for some odd reason, I don’t fully buy into it. My computer numbers came up with only a seven point win, so I decided to do a little research. Kansas is an awful road team. They lost three of their four road games last year (squeaking by a terrible IowaState team). In fact, Kansas has had 3 non-conference road games the last five years and lost them all!! The teams played were South Florida, Toledo, and Northwestern. UTEP hurt itself last week against Buffalo with sloppy and careless penalties and always seem to hang around Big 12 teams. They outgained Buffalo last week and have an offense that can eat up big chunks of yardage. The weakness of the defense is the weakness of the Jayhawks’ offense which is the running game especially behind a new offensive line. I think UTEP will hang around most of the game with their passing attack and actually would not be too surprised if they took the game into OT or even won the game outright. Like I said, Kansas SHOULD dominate this game, but that’s why they are played!
It’s all about building up the team’s spirits to get ready for SEC play. Tennessee did not hold back on Western Kentucky last week. After traveling to California last year, I’m sure some players have revenge on their mind as well. They have playmakers on offense with Montario Hardesty and freshman Bryce Brown to go with receiver Gerald Jones. If Crompton finds consistency during the season, the Vols could really surprise some teams. They also have that all-world safety Eric Berry as well. UCLA has a good defense but the offense will struggle to get things going especially when freshman quarterback Kevin Prince makes his first road start. Kiffin wants to dominate early and often and his team is poised for a blowout game.
Tennessee 31
UCLA 10
Kansas @ UTEP
Ranked team? Check. Stud quarterback? Check. Star player coming back from suspension? Check. Easy non-conference opponent? Check. Public loves the favorite? Checkmate. Okay, I truly believe Kansas SHOULD dominate this game. But for some odd reason, I don’t fully buy into it. My computer numbers came up with only a seven point win, so I decided to do a little research. Kansas is an awful road team. They lost three of their four road games last year (squeaking by a terrible IowaState team). In fact, Kansas has had 3 non-conference road games the last five years and lost them all!! The teams played were South Florida, Toledo, and Northwestern. UTEP hurt itself last week against Buffalo with sloppy and careless penalties and always seem to hang around Big 12 teams. They outgained Buffalo last week and have an offense that can eat up big chunks of yardage. The weakness of the defense is the weakness of the Jayhawks’ offense which is the running game especially behind a new offensive line. I think UTEP will hang around most of the game with their passing attack and actually would not be too surprised if they took the game into OT or even won the game outright. Like I said, Kansas SHOULD dominate this game, but that’s why they are played!
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