A Super Bowl berth is on the line as the San Francisco 49ers host the Green Bay Packers as 7.5-point favorites on Sunday night.
Green Bay and San Francisco are no stranger to postseason battles and for the eighth time in the last 25 years the two teams will face off in the NFL playoffs.
Both teams had identical 13-3 records during the regular season but earned those victories in completely different ways.
The Niners outscored their opponents by an average of 10.6 points per game then stomped the Vikings 27-10 in the Divisional Round. The Packers had a more modest scoring margin of plus-3.9 ppg and had to hold off a Seattle comeback in a 28-22 victory over the Seahawks in their Divisional Round matchup.
These teams met up in Week 12 with the Niners routing Green Bay by a score of 37-8. The Packers will have to gameplan and execute much better if they want to have a chance in this game.
From the opening kickoff to the final snap we break down the odds and bring you our best bets and predictions for the NFC Championship. **video
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCSICO 49ERS (-7.5, 46.5)
QUICK HITTER
San Francisco is fourth in the league in first-quarter scoring with 6.6 points per game but Green Bay ranks just ahead of them with 6.8 ppg. The Packers actually scored the second-most first-quarter touchdowns in the league with 15 (just one behind the Ravens).
Green Bay's stop unit also comes to play early giving up just 3.5 ppg in the opening quarter while San Fran allows 4.3 ppg.
The Packers might be getting a bit slept on here, especially in the early going. Taking them to score the first points of the game via a touchdown pays out at a tidy +290.
PICK: First Score - Green Bay Touchdown (+290)
FIRST HALF BET
The Niners have been nothing short of dominant this season on both sides of the ball. At home they put up 15.8 ppg in the first half while allowing just 8.4. That first-half scoring margin of plus-7.4 ppg is far better than Green Bay's first-half scoring margin of minus-2.7 ppg in away contests.
When these teams met up in Week 12, the Niners built up a massive 23-0 lead by halftime. While we like the value on taking Green Bay to score first, we think that the Niners will enter halftime covering the spread.
PICK: First Half San Francisco -4.5
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Aaron Rodgers might be one of the best quarterbacks in the league (and is coming off a 243-yard performance against Seattle), but the 238.5 Over/Under on his passing yards looks a tad too high to us.
Rodgers only went Over that number six times during the regular season and four of those games were against the Lions, Raiders and Giants, who all rank among the Bottom-4 teams in the league in defensive pass DVOA according to Football Outsiders.
San Francisco is much better against the pass, holding opponents to a league-low 166.6 passing yards per game and limiting Kirk Cousins to just 172 yards last week. And they shut down Rodgers in Week 12, holding him to just 104 yards through the air while sacking him five times. Bet the Under on his passing yards.
PICK: Passing Yards - Aaron Rodgers Under 238.5
OVER/UNDER BET
The Niners were the second-highest scoring team in the league during the regular with 29.9 ppg, but Green Bay wasn't too shabby on the defensive side of the ball holding opponents to 19.6 ppg.
Even in that regular season beatdown where San Fran put up 37 points, seven of those points were a result of an Aaron Rodgers sack and fumble return to the Green Bay two-yard line. The Packers actually limited the Niners to 339 yards of offense and just 16 first downs.
The 49ers are terrific on defense holding opponents to just 281.8 yards per game, the second-lowest total in the league. While they looked shaky down the stretch that had a lot to do with multiple injuries to key players like edge rusher Dee Ford, linebacker Kwon Alexander and safety Jaquiski Tartt.
With those guys healthy and back in the lineup San Francisco's stop unit looked like they did early in the season as they stuffed Minnesota last week.
If these teams want to succeed on offense they'll need to run the ball since both defenses are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. Expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams which should make the clock tick down faster and lead to a lower score. We're leaning towards the Under.
PICK: Under 46.5
SPREAD BET
We're not exactly expecting a repeat of the Week 12 score. After all we've seen too many examples of teams that got stomped during the first meeting of the season only to make adjustments and pull off victories during the rematch. That said, Green Bay just doesn't match up well with San Fran across the board.
Whether it was Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida or Raheem Mostert leading the backfield, the 49ers were the second-best rushing team in the NFL during the regular season racking up 144.1 rushing yards per game. Green Bay's defense surrendered 120.1 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry, both numbers among the Bottom-10 teams in the league.
As well as running back Aaron Jones has played this year, Rodgers is the beating heart of the Packers offense. But with the 49ers defense holding opposing passers to a league-low 5.2 yards per pass attempt and also leading the league in QB hurries per dropback, they are going to make life miserable for the Green Bay signal-caller.
The Cheeseheads also struggled to sustain drives, converting on just 35.96 percent of third down attempts (23rd in the league) while San Francisco was second in the league in opponent third-down conversion percentage at 33.3 percent. We're laying the points with Jimmy G and the 49ers.
PICK: San Francisco -7.5
