Which will be the highest-grossing movie of 2026? The Odyssey, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, or Avengers: Doomsday? Or, will something left-field spring a surprise on the prediction markets?
Does Christopher Nolan’s IMAX epic have time (and theaters) to make enough cash? Or will nostalgia and the family factor lift Toy Story 5 to the #1 spot? We examine the frontrunners and hot value picks on the prediction markets.
Key Takeaways:
- The Super Mario Galaxy Movie has the early release advantage: can the family film out-perform Marvel?
- The Odyssey has the early summer advantage: a stellar cast, and Christopher Nolan always delivers on the big screen. Good value?
- The really big blockbusters aren’t out until Christmas: will they run out of time to rack up ticket sales?
- Do cinema-goers really want more Avengers? Traders are torn: will fans suffer from Marvel fatigue, or will they put their faith in a Doomsday miracle?
We’ve analyzed the prediction markets to see which films are piquing bettors’ curiosity right now. We’ve also dived into a few of the films which may cause a major upset this year.
There’s a long time to go before December 31 rolls around, and we can expect plenty of movement in this market. Should you buy the summer hit and sell up before ‘Dunesday’ hits on December 18? Let’s take a closer look at the big picks.
Prediction Markets: Highest-Grossing Movie of 2026
| Title | Chance | Yes |
|---|---|---|
|
🕷️ Spider-Man: |
65% | 66¢ |
|
💥Avengers: Doomsday |
13% | 13¢ |
| 🍄 The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 5% | 3.6¢ |
| 🗡️ The Odyssey | 2% | 2.4¢ |
| 🤠 Toy Story 5 | 4% | 3.6¢ |
(Data provided by Polymarket - accurate as of May 13, 2026)
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🕷️ Spider-Man: Brand New Day | Probability 65% | Yes 66¢
Release Date: July 31, 2026
Why we like Spider-Man Brand New Day:
- Spidey has the August box office all to himself
- Spider-Man has a broad global appeal
- The really big Marvel epic comes at Christmas
Spidey will be back on the big screen this July, and if prediction markets are correct, the latest Marvel masterpiece is set to be this year’s definitive summer blockbuster.
Co-produced by Columbia Pictures and Marvel Studios, the follow-up to No Way Home follows Peter Parker’s journey as he rediscovers his purpose beyond fame.
No Way Home remains one of the highest-grossing movies ever. By mid-2022, the title had hit the $2 billion barrier.
That’s why the next instalment in the story has already emerged as a favorite in the race to become the box-office success of 2026. Plus, it’s the perfect warm-up to the big Christmas release, which all Avengers fans are getting excited about.
| Spidey Movie | Box Office |
| Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) | $1.9 billion |
| Spider-Man: Far from Home (2019) | $1.1 billion |
| Spider-Man 3 (2007) | $886 million |
| Spider-Man (2002) | $894 million |
| Spider-Man 2 (2004) | $786 million |
(Source: Box Office Mojo/IMDB Pro)
💥 Avengers: Doomsday | Probability 13% | Yes 13¢
Release Date: December 18, 2026
Why we're cheering on Avengers: Doomsday:
- Marvel fans are praying for a hit after years of disappointments
- The return of Robert Downey Jr. is creating all the buzz
- The ‘Dunesday’ scenario should increase ticket sales
The Avengers return to the big screen in December, with fans crossing fingers that the latest Marvel instalment will right the wrongs of so many duds up to now.
Avengers: Doomsday has Robert Downey Jr returning – this time as Doctor Doom, not Tony Stark/Iron Man. Other details are scant, but Tom Hiddleston, returning as Loki, has said it’ll be “surprising,” with a story that’s “never been done before.”
The last major Avengers film, Avengers: Endgame made almost $2.8 billion and became the highest-grossing movie of all time, so this movie is expected to do incredibly well. But its release could come too late in the year to challenge Spider-Man or Mario, both of which have a summer headstart.
Finally, Avengers: Doomsday is released the same day as Denis Villeneuve’s final Dune instalment. The ‘Dunesday’ scenario – as with ‘Barbenheimer’ three years ago – could improve the box office for both movies.
🍄 The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | Probability 5% | Yes 3.6¢
Release Date: April 1, 2026
Why we're cheering on Mario:
- Mario has momentum with its spring release
- Family movies have cleaned up on the top-grossing movie list
- Other than Spider-Man, it has a clear summer run
If there’s one character that could topple our favorite web-slinger from the no.1 spot, it’s the world’s most famous plumber.
Mushroom Kingdom’s finest returned in April, with the release of a new movie based on the 2007 game of the same name.
The Mario buzz climbed in March as movie trailers and TV ads were everywhere. In early March, Mario climbed to a high of 45 cents but has since dropped back down to 31 cents.
The third Super Mario Bros. movie follows a live-action film released in 1993 and the smash hit of 2023: The Super Mario Bros. Movie. The latter grossed over $1.36 billion worldwide. While that’s nowhere near the amount made by Spider-Man: No Way Home, it was more than enough to make it the most profitable video game movie ever seen.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie has already grossed $940 million worldwide. Is that enough to trouble Avengers: Doomsday traders?
Best Value Picks Explored
⚔️ The Odyssey | Probability 2% | Yes 2.4¢
Release Date: July 17, 2026
Why we like The Odyssey:
- Christopher Nolan has the July spot wrapped up
- A stellar cast, epic story, and Nolan – what more do you want?
- Could the IMAX-only limitations scupper its chances?
For internet buzz alone, how is The Odyssey such good value?
The British director has the story (Homer’s epic tale of a hero returning home after 20 years) and a ridiculous A-list cast. Plus, the film’s marketing team has been on it, with a perfect trickle of trailers hitting the socials.
Director Christopher Nolan has effectively been given a blank checkbook in recent years. He can greenlight any project, with even more thoughtful movies like Oppenheimer reaching the $935 million mark at the box office.
The Odyssey has time on its side – it’s released in July – but is limited by the number of IMAX cinemas in which it can be shown. Will that ruin its chances of becoming the highest-grossing movie of 2026?
Christopher Nolan: The Box Office Behemoth
| Film | Box Office |
| The Dark Knight Rise (2012) | $1.085 billion |
| The Dark Knight (2008) | $1 billion |
| Oppenheimer (2023) | $975 million |
| Inception (2010) | $839 million |
🤠 Toy Story 5 | Probability 4% | Yes 3.8¢
A new threat to playtime is incoming. This June, Woody, Buzz, Jessie and the gang are set to be introduced to technology for the first time, as they come face to face with Lilypad.
The story follows the traditional toys’ fight for the attention of Bonnie, with Tom Hanks (Woody), Tim Allen (Buzz), Joan Cusack (Jessie) and Tony Hale (Forky) all back as the voices of Pixar’s best characters (ever!).
The Toy Story film franchise is one of Pixar’s most popular and most successful. Overall, it’s grossed well over $3 billion. Both Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4 made over $1 billion individually. Given the fact that Toy Story 3 was released back in 2010, that’s a considerable feat.
Currently, the price of a yes for Toy Story 5 remains low, at 3.8¢. But this is a movie with serious potential. It’s one to watch in this market.
🐸 Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | Probability 2% | Yes 1.8¢
Mandalorian bounty hunter Din Djarin and his young apprentice Grogu take on the remaining Imperial warlords at cinemas this May.
This feature film is a follow-up to the Disney+ series, which make things complicated when it comes to predicting its box office success.
Some commentators are hugely optimistic about the movie’s chances, suggesting it could make over $1 billion on release. But its connection to the series might make it less of a cinematic event than previous movies.
It all hinges on how well marketed the film is as we head towards its release, and how it’s received in those critical first days.
Highest-Grossing Movies: 2021–2025
It’s worth us delving a little further into the type of film that becomes the highest-grossing movie of the year. We’ve also looked at release date and film style to see which movies connect most with cinema-goers.
The past two years have seen family films top the box office in North America. Plus, Inside Out 2 topped both the North American and global markets, despite only being released at Christmas. That’s encouraging if you’re looking to back a December release.
| Movie | Release Date | N. America Box Office |
| A Minecraft Movie | April 2025 | $423 million |
| Inside Out | December 2024 | $652 million |
| Barbie | July 2023 | $636 million |
| Top Gun: Maverick | May 2022 | $718 million |
| Spider-Man: No Way Home | December 2021 | $804 million |
(Source: IMDB)
How to Trade on the Highest-Grossing Movie of 2026 Prediction Market
Grab your popcorn and get your Kalshi account set up to trade now on the highest-grossing movie of 2026:
How do prediction markets work? The prediction market works like a stock market trade. You are buying shares in which film you think will make the most at the box office. Alternatively, you can bet the other way, backing a movie not to be the highest-grossing of 2026.
The payout ceiling: every prediction market contract has a ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ value. If Avengers: Doomsday is priced at 36¢ for a ‘Yes’, that means it has a 36% chance of happening.
Each share resolved at $1.00. So, if you bought one share at ‘Yes’, it would settle at $1, and you’d win 74¢.
On the flipside, you could buy a ‘No’ on Avengers: Doomsday at 64¢. If the movie didn’t become the highest-grossing of 2026, it would resolve at $1, winning 36¢ per share.
What’s the market consensus? Every prediction market combines the current consensus among traders. At 36¢, the market believes there is a 36% chance that the movie will be #1 among the box office takers this year.
However, your own research may suggest the probability of that happening is much higher, say 54%. This market offers some value here.
Highest-Grossing Movie of 2026 FAQ
Yes, it’s possible that the highest-grossing movie of 2026 will be nostalgic. The biggest releases are sequels of older films, such as Toy Story 5 and Avengers: Doomsday. Discerning cinema-goers want something familiar for their own “safe space”. Nostalgic blockbusters are predicted to make billions at the box office, proving that customers don’t want to take risks with their money.
Absolutely. Films need time to bed in at the box office and make as much money as possible. Summer releases will obviously have more chance than a Christmas release to be the highest-grossing movie of 2026. That means releases like Dune Part 3 and Avengers Doomsday are better ‘No’ buys on the prediction markets.
Marvel films this year, such as Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the biggest global reach. They combine solid marketing, great storytelling, and big special effects. Plus, Marvel films appeal to a wide demographic, including men, women, and over and under-25s. That’s the sweet spot if you’re trying to bet the prediction markets on which films will perform at the box office.
Yes, Avengers: Doomsday and Spider-Man: Brand New Day both have the potential to make $2 billion. However, in reality, only the Avengers movie has the chance to perform that well at the box office. The nostalgia factor, plus the return of familiar actors like Robert Downey Jr., could earn Avengers: Doomsday a huge amount. However, the Marvel Cinematic Universe has also lost the feelgood factor it once had.
