As we enter the second half of the inaugural UFL season, the likely playoff teams are starting to shape up and it is becoming desperation time for the other four currently on the outside looking in.
Play gets underway for Week 6 on Saturday with one game in Memphis and one in St. Louis. The week will conclude on Sunday with one game in Detroit and one in Washington, D.C.
Check out my UFL betting picks and predictions for Week 6.
UFL picks for Week 6
Picks made on 5/3 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Week 6 UFL odds and predictions
Birmingham Stallions vs Memphis Showboats
Saturday, May 4, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
| Stallions | Showboats | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.5 (-110) | Spread | +12.5 (-110) |
| -850 | Moneyline | +575 |
| Over 43 (-110) | Total | Under 43 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 5-3.
These two teams previously met in Week 3 in Birmingham, and it was an absolute bloodbath in favor of the Stallions. The Memphis Showboats lost 33-14 on the road, as Adrian Martinez threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 44 yards and another score. The Showboats allowed eight sacks and were 6 of 14 on third-down conversions.
That game might have broken the Showboats as they would go on to lose by 15 on the road to the St. Louis Battlehawks the next week and then by 17 at home against the Michigan Panthers last week. The Showboats now rank seventh in the league in both points for and points against, as they continue to freefall towards the bottom of the standings.
Martinez seems to have won the starting job in full now after Matt Corral returned from injury and struggled in Week 4. While it will be hard to replicate what he did in the first matchup, the dual threat quarterback will light up this defense again. The Stallions should continue to roll and win by double-digits even on the road.
Pick: Stallions -12.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Houston Roughnecks vs St. Louis Battlehawks
Saturday, May 4, 3:00 p.m. ET, FOX
| Roughnecks | Battlehawks | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.5 (-110) | Spread | -12.5 (-110) |
| +625 | Moneyline | -950 |
| Over 47.5 (-110) | Total | Under 47.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 5-3.
The first-place team in the XFL Conference will be hosting the last place team in the USFL Conference in one of the toughest environments in the league. The Battlehawks are coming off a dominating 45-12 win over the D.C. Defenders on the road. Meanwhile, the Houston Roughnecks exit a 32-9 shellacking at home by the hand of the Stallions.
Surprisingly, these two teams have several similarities when it comes to play style. They are the Bottom 2 teams in rushing offense and the Top 2 teams in passing defense. Their big difference is their ability to convert their offense into scores. The Battlehawks have the most points in the league and the Roughnecks have the fewest.
One reason for that discrepancy is the ability of St. Louis to win the turnover battle and the inability for Houston to do the same. The Battlehawks rank first in the league with a +3 margin and the Roughnecks rank last with a -3 margin. The Battlehawks should win that battle again at home and put up plenty of points to earn another blowout triumph.
Pick: Battlehawks -12.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Arlington Renegades vs Michigan Panthers
Sunday, May 5, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX
| Renegades | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| +4 (-110) | Spread | -4 (-110) |
| +164 | Moneyline | -198 |
| Over 42 (-110) | Total | Under 42 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 5-3.
The Arlington Renegades remain the only winless team in the league and are on the brink of already being eliminated from playoff contention. If they fall again this week and both the San Antonio Brahmas and Battlehawks win, it will be an official elimination for the defending XFL champions. Surprisingly though, they have the closest margin of defeat of all four teams currently possessing a losing record.
Meanwhile, the Michigan Panthers have the smallest margin of victory of all four teams that have a winning record. However, they did beat both teams that they faced with a losing record by 14 points or more. The Panthers get by with the combination of a great rushing attack and a solid rushing defense.
The Panthers are a little vulnerable through the air though and the Renegades have the top passing offense in the UFL. While I do not expect to see the Renegades get their first win of the season here, they may be able to put up enough points to keep it close. I will just roll with the Over instead.
Pick: Over 42 (-110 at DraftKings)
San Antonio Brahmas vs D.C. Defenders
Sunday, May 5, 4:00 p.m. ET, FOX
| Brahmas | Defenders | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 (-110) | Spread | +1.5 (-110) |
| -125 | Moneyline | +105 |
| Over 42.5 (-110) | Total | Under 42.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 5-3.
This is a rematch from Week 1 when the Brahmas won 27-12 at home. However, the Brahmas will not have their starting quarterback or running back from that game in Chase Garbers and Anthony McFarland. The Defenders are without two of their top three receivers from that game.
Quenten Dormady has not been bad in relief of Garbers, but he does have a turnover problem. Last week, he threw three interceptions against the Renegades. However, now he gets to face the last ranked passing defense in the league. He just needs to stay consistent with his decision making.
The Defenders rank dead last in third-down conversion rate and converted only 5 of 14 in their last matchup with the Brahmas. San Antonio ranks first in the league in third-down percentage on defense and will stymie the Defenders offense and force lots of kicks – whether punts or field goals. They should be able to get this win on the road.
Pick: Brahmas -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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