Two pitchers who have been outstanding to start the season will face off on Friday night when the Philadelphia Phillies host the San Francisco Giants.
The Philles (21-11) have won six of their last seven games and are favorites in the MLB odds over the Giants (15-17), who lost two of three to the Boston Red Sox during the week.
It’s been a long time since either Jordan Hicks and Aaron Nola has had a bad start, which makes this an exciting pitching matchup to dive into. We’ll break it down in our free Giants vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for May 3.
Giants vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Outside of a single bad outing to start the season, Aaron Nola has been exactly the pitcher that the Philadelphia Phillies expected him to be in 2024. Over his last five starts, Nola is 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA, allowing just 20 hits over 35 innings in that span. Nola is also a rare pitcher who still goes deep into games, having pitched eight full innings in each of his last two starts.
This is the version of Nola that Philadelphia has been hoping for in recent years. It’s not as though Nola has been bad for the Phillies: he has a 3.71 ERA over his 10-year career with the team, has made an All-Star Game, and has been on the fringes of the Cy Young odds race on three occasions.
But Nola does have a habit of giving up a few too many home runs, and his strikeout numbers have dipped over the last couple of years. Yet the Phillies have now seen a month of success out of the 30-year-old, and all signs are that Nola is back to being a legitimate frontline starter.
The San Francisco Giants are countering with 27-year-old Jordan Hicks. While Hicks has spent the majority of his career working out of the bullpen, San Francisco has converted him to a starting role this year with rousing success. In six starts, Hicks has put up a sterling 1.59 ERA over 34 innings of work, allowing just one home run this year.
Unlike most pitchers who transition to a starting role, Hicks has been more effective inning-for-inning as a starter, dropping his WHIP to 0.912 so far this year. He has yet to allow more than two runs in a start and has gone at least give innings in each outing, while showing that he can give as much as seven innings on occasion.
There’s no sign that these two hurlers should struggle tonight. The Giants have hit the Under in each of their last six games, and even the Phillies offense — clearly the better of the two — is only averaging 4.66 runs per game, a far cry from the top lineups in the league. We should be in for an exciting, tightly-played game where runs are at a premium, and I’m taking the Under.
Giants vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Phillies moneyline
Aaron Nola 6+ Ks
This game should belong to the pitchers, which is why I played the Under as my best bet tonight.
For my same-game parlay, I’m going to focus on who I think will win that duel: Nola, who has the longer track record of excellence as a starter. That’s why I’m taking the Phillies to win outright, and Nola to pick up at least six strikeouts.
Nola has struck out at least seven batters in each of his last three starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Phillies odds
Giants vs Phillies live odds
Giants vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 | Philadelphia -1.5
- Moneyline: San Francisco +139 | Philadelphia -151
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Giants vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies opened tonight’s game as a -151 favorite. As of early afternoon on Friday, the moneyline had moved to Philadelphia -175, with +150 available on the Giants at some books.
- Philadelphia has won 6.5 units for backers on the moneyline this year, while San Francisco is down nearly 5.5 units on the season.
- The Over/Under opened at 8, but the consensus total has since dropped to 7.5, with many books favoring the Under even at the reduced number.
- The Phillies and the Giants have each played to the same record against the total this year, with the Under holding a 17-14 advantage for both teams.
Giants vs Phillies trend
The Under is 8-1 in San Francisco’s last nine games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Phillies
Giants vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Friday, 5-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Jordan Hicks (2-0, 1.59 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (4-1, 3.20 ERA) |
Giants vs Phillies latest injuries
Giants vs Phillies weather
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