It’s the final week of the USFL regular season — only the Birmingham Stallions have clinched a playoff spot, and even they’re still playing for a division title. Also, no team has been eliminated from contention, so these should be highly competitive matches.
Play gets underway for Week 10 on Saturday with one game in Memphis, TN, and one in Canton, OH. Then continues on Sunday with another in Memphis and the finale in Detroit, MI.
After a 2-2 record last week on picks, I’m 21-15 on the season — time to close out strong!
Check out my USFL betting picks and predictions for Week 10.
USFL picks for Week 10
Picks made on 6/14/2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Week 10 USFL odds and predictions
All odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 15.
Pittsburgh Maulers vs New Jersey Generals
Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET, USA
|Pittsburgh Maulers||New Jersey Generals|
|+3.5 (-110)||Spread||-3.5 (-110)|
|Over 40.5 (-110)||Total||Under 40.5 (-110)|
This is an elimination game, as the loser cannot make the playoffs regardless of other outcomes. The winner will have a solid chance at making the playoffs with a possibility of winning the North division. When these two teams met back in Week 2, the Generals dominated the game 20-3. The Maulers only amassed 166 yards of total offense and turned the ball over three times.
Last week, the Maulers kept their playoff hopes alive with a win over the Michigan Panthers, 19-7. Pittsburgh dominated the game by controlling possession and playing excellent defense. It had 37:01 time of possession compared to 22:59 for Michigan and forced four turnovers without turning it over itself. This allowed the Maulers to secure a dominating victory despite only 226 yards of total offense.
The Generals also kept their playoff hopes alive by defeating the Philadelphia Stars in a 37-33 shootout. New Jersey totaled 365 yards of offense with no turnovers. It struggled defensively, but did force three turnovers and only allowed two touchdowns in six red-zone attempts.
Despite the Generals’ poor record, they have had at least an opportunity to win or tie the game going into their last possession in every loss since Week 1 to Birmingham. I just trust the New Jersey offense to get the job done, even against a fantastic defense, more than I trust Pittsburgh’s offense. New Jersey will win and clinch another trip to the USFL playoffs.
Pick: Generals -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Birmingham Stallions vs Memphis Showboats
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET, FOX
|Birmingham Stallions||Memphis Showboats|
|-3.5 (-110)||Spread||+3.5 (-110)|
|Over 43.5 (-110)||Total||Under 43.5 (-110)|
The Stallions are the lone team that has guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, but they still need to win this game to guarantee the division title. The Showboats will need a win and help with tiebreakers to make the playoffs. In Week 2, Birmingham smoked the Showboats, 42-2, in Alex McGough’s first game as the starter.
Last week, Birmingham got its mojo back in defeating the Houston Gamblers, 38-15, avenging its previous loss to them. McGough had 208 yards passing and 34 yards rushing with three total touchdowns. The Stallions added a defensive touchdown and kept the Gamblers out of the endzone in five red-zone attempts.
The Showboats ended their five-game winning streak with a crushing defeat to the New Orleans Breakers, 31-3. They allowed 17 points in the first quarter and were never able to recover. Memphis turned the ball over five times without forcing a single turnover and Cole Kelley had 21 passes either fall incomplete or get intercepted, to only 23 completions.
Memphis has to win this game and get some help to make the playoffs. It may even need to score around 50 points to have a chance in tiebreaker scenarios. Because of that, I imagine this will be an extremely aggressive gameplan from the Showboats. Both offenses will benefit and the Over seems like the best bet.
Pick: Over 43.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
New Orleans Breakers vs Houston Gamblers
Sunday, 4:00 p.m. ET, FS1
|New Orleans Breakers||Houston Gamblers|
|-3.5 (-110)||Spread||+3.5 (-110)|
|Over 44.5 (-110)||Total||Under 44.5 (-110)|
This game will be virtually a play-in game, as the winner will be almost certainly in the playoffs. The Breakers will lock in a spot with a win and Houston would likely win the tiebreakers if they win. In Week 2, New Orleans outscored Houston 38-31 thanks to a late interception thrown by Kenji Bahar that led to a Wes Hills winning touchdown.
It was an important game last week for New Orleans and it played as such with a throwback performance to its early-season play. The Breakers only amassed 170 total yards of offense, but that was because they were playing with short fields after forcing five turnovers. The Breakers were able to convert two of their three red-zone attempts into touchdowns and finished with 31 points.
The Gamblers went from winning the fourth quarter 14-3 two weeks ago to losing the fourth quarter 21-0 last week. They were unable to convert any of their five red-zone attempts into touchdowns and also turned the ball over three times. For some reason, they have completely removed Terry Wilson from their gameplan on offense and even benched him late in the game when they pulled Bahar.
With this game being a virtual playoff game, I just trust the Breakers so much more than I trust the Gamblers. Bahar is very inconsistent and without Wilson’s running threat, I don’t see them outscoring New Orleans. I think the Breakers could win big.
Pick: Breakers -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Stars vs Michigan Panthers
Sunday, 7:00 p.m. ET, FOX
|Philadelphia Stars||Michigan Panthers|
|pick' em||Spread||pick' em|
|Over 42.5 (-110)||Total||Under 42.5 (-110)|
This will be a very important finale, as a win by Philadelphia will give it the division title and eliminate Michigan from the playoffs. However, a win by Michigan will secure a playoff berth and may eliminate Philadelphia, depending on the outcome of the Pittsburgh/New Jersey game. The Panthers won the first matchup in Week 2, 24-10.
Philadelphia lost a second consecutive game and has fallen from complete control of the North division, to where a loss could eliminate it completely. The Stars are now ranked last in the league in both points allowed and yards allowed per game. The good news for them is Michigan has had some offensive woes for most of the season and the Stars can rack up the points themselves.
Michigan took a tough loss last week when a win would have clinched a playoff berth. Now it will have to defeat the other team from Pennsylvania — one that’s better than the squad they just lost to. The good news is they will go from playing the top-ranked defense to playing the lowest-ranked D.
This game is a pick ‘em and, while I believe the Stars are more talented and better on offense, they just have so many defensive struggles that it’s hard to trust them. The safest play here is the Over, as Michigan has shown signs of a high-scoring offense at times this season. Expect some fireworks in the regular-season finale.
Pick: Over 42.5 (-110 at DraftKings)