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Derby Talk

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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Derby Talk
vetdrm PM vetdrm
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Posted: 4/28/2018 1:33:26 PM
Hey Guys.Hope your all doing well.
Another Derby on the Horizon.
I would like to know if any of you caught that interview with Johnny V about a week or two ago.
The way I interpreted it was, Pletcher was leaving the decision up to JV ,whether to ride Audible, whom he just rode to a win in the Florida Derby, or Vinno Rosso,who he has been a regular rider in the past.
Well,Velazquez has committed to ride Vinno Rosso.
A significant decision considering his Florida win.

Now Vinno Rosso is a very nice horse out of Curlin, winning the Wood Memorial,although he did take advantage of some track Bias playing to outside runners that day and a very swift pace.

My question...Whos the better horse? Audible or Vinno Rosso.

Did he make the right decision?


Sidenote:
Every year I hear the whispers,who's the hot horse.The wise guy horse.
This year so far I've been hearing Vinno and My Boy Jack.


Lets stir up some more Derby talk guys
angrybarber PM angrybarber
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Posted: 4/29/2018 9:20:52 AM
Hey Vet!

I personally can’t overlook Vino’s 2 bad at TB Downs. Plus i think Enticed who he beat in the Wood stinks. Enticed is only even in the field because he won a 1 turn mile race at AQU, it’s ridiculous that a 1 turn race even has Derby points attached to it.
My Top 5 pending post draw:
Magnum Moon- really like him, he’s versatile and widens his margin of victory in all 4 of his races.
Audible- love him as well as an extra gear when he hits the top of the stretch. Also a versatile runner
Justify- this is more a fear selection. I think the Santa Anita Derby was a joke. I think Bolt is going the wrong way. But I’d probably be a fool to disregard Baffert.
Good Magic- hammered in the BC Juve but I really don’t think he’s fast enough to beat the best horses in this field. Also think the Blue Grass was an average race. But i do think he is very likely to hit the board.
Hofburg- this guy looks great! His work this morning was outstanding and the fact that Mott has him here is noteworthy. Mott hasn’t had a Derby starter since 09. He may not be ready just yet but imo he’s live.
howzuck PM howzuck
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Posted: 4/30/2018 7:59:56 AM
I also like Magnum Moon a lot here, but race does look wide open, of course this means most likely big exotic payouts....

Hofberg may become "wise guy horse" but definitely worth 25-1 or greater odds, very lightly raced, but so are many others here

Post position not the big deal it is in other races, but marginal horses very far inside or outside can get hurt by the draw, more impirtant to me is the weather, more to come later this week......
B Lugosi PM B Lugosi
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Posted: 4/30/2018 8:20:21 AM
   Rarely play horses, but really appreciate reading your thoughts on the derby and other large races, thanks .
the z bar PM the z bar
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Posted: 4/30/2018 3:53:50 PM
J.V. rides many horses for the Repole stable. That may have been a factor in his choice of mounts.
I prefer Audible in a two horse prop wager. {Odds being a factor of course}

Race is wide open. Awaiting the post draw at this point.

I will give Good Magic a look if the draw is friendly.
garywpt PM garywpt
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Posted: 4/30/2018 4:23:55 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by vetdrm:

Posted: Apr. 28, 2018 - 2:33 PM ET "Quote" Hey Guys.Hope your all doing well.Another Derby on the Horizon.I would like to know if any of you caught that interview with Johnny V about a week or two ago.The way I interpreted it was, Pletcher was leaving the decision up to JV ,whether to ride Audible, whom he just rode to a win in the Florida Derby, or Vinno Rosso,who he has been a regular rider in the past.Well,Velazquez has committed to ride Vinno Rosso.A significant decision considering his Florida win.Now Vinno Rosso is a very nice horse out of Curlin, winning the Wood Memorial,although he did take advantage of some track Bias playing to outside runners that day and a very swift pace.My question...Whos the better horse? Audible or Vinno Rosso.Did he make the right decision?Sidenote:Every year I hear the whispers,who's the hot horse.The wise guy horse.This year so far I've been hearing Vinno and My Boy Jack.Lets stir up some more Derby talk guys

Tygermyke PM Tygermyke
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Posted: 4/30/2018 9:03:54 PM
Good stuff, Vet.  My Boy Jack is my Looking at Lee pick from last year.  He must have run 2 miles in the La. Derby and got third.  Of course, it's only Monday.
vaas187 PM vaas187
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Posted: 4/30/2018 11:00:24 PM

medhellson

justify

hofburg

bolt doro

my boy jack 

bobboonehater PM bobboonehater
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Posted: 5/1/2018 11:42:06 AM

Right now I believe I'll have audible on top of one and justify the other with myboyjack and hofburg 2 and 3 and 3 and 2. 

vetdrm PM vetdrm
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Posted: 5/1/2018 2:20:45 PM
Then there's Apollo curse.
The favorite would fall into that category. Im sure its just a matter of time before that streak comes to an end,as did Curse of the Bambino,which ended in 2004,and the Cubs and the Billy Goat curse,which finally ended 2 years ago.
But man, hard to discredit something that has gone on since I wanna say 1893?
Thats not the reason Im passing on Justify, but it doesnt hurt knowing thats in my corner.

Then theres the UAE thing. Good thing I dont like him either

Tyger,I also liked his La Derby run.
Thanks for the kind words and hope you guys throw out some winners Saturday.

Midnight1 PM Midnight1
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Posted: 5/1/2018 5:09:38 PM
Just read that Dale Romans is the all time leading trainer @ Churchill. He has Free Drop Billy & Promises Fulfilled in the Derby but has never won the race. 

Loved Promised Fulfilled until Albarado baked him in the Florida Derby going 21.95 in the first quarter. In that race Audible got the jump on Hofberg
vetdrm PM vetdrm
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Posted: 5/1/2018 5:39:44 PM
I read what Romans had to say about Promises.
Looks like he wanted to work him a little more then FDB back on the 28th. 4th fastest out of 49 at 5 furlongs.
Dont like him anymore Midnight? I was still looking at him on a few in the Super.
AtlantaDavid PM AtlantaDavid
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Posted: 5/1/2018 5:40:21 PM

im actually leaning promises fullfilled - i view it like this-    he will go out early and justify should stalk instead of press -- no one else wants to tangle with them early hoping they burn each other out-- but i think pace will be moderate and promises fullfilled has a huge chance at 50-1 plus as he can last when uncontested -- justify hasnt passed a horse like these ever

Midnight1 PM Midnight1
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Posted: 5/1/2018 6:34:16 PM
Albarado is no longer up on Promises Fulfilled. Romans makes a big switch to Lanarie. That's a huge move IMO coming into such a big race.

That last race is scaring me off him right now.
Midnight1 PM Midnight1
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Posted: 5/1/2018 7:37:18 PM
Justify, coming from post 7, has never faced more than 6 starters. Saturday he'll face 20.

The only other colt with fewer races is #8 Hofberg. 

Baffert must be pretty confident in this one because he didn't let Arrogate or West Coast participate in the Triple Crown races. They both became monsters.

Just sharing what I see...


bobboonehater PM bobboonehater
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Posted: 5/1/2018 9:49:30 PM

I'd be shocked if promises finishes higher than 8th.

AtlantaDavid PM AtlantaDavid
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Posted: 5/2/2018 8:46:22 AM

promises fullfilled will get first, second, or bottom 2--   my play is based on the fact he can set a moderate pace - if not then he will fade to around last for sure     But i feel he has a 20% chance to set a moderate pace and a then another 50% chance to win if he does--  so think that equates to a about a 10% chance to win in my view and at over 50-1 off odds thats my win play   an_cheers

Midnight1 PM Midnight1
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Posted: 5/2/2018 10:20:18 AM
I have to believe Romans has told Lanarie not to cook him in the first quarter like Albarado did in the Florida Derby.

.
vetdrm PM vetdrm
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Posted: 5/2/2018 12:22:27 PM
Excited to see the American Turf on Saturday.
Top 3 horse figure to be Untamed Domain[Animal Kingdom]
 Threeandfourpence,and Rushing Fall.
Most of you remember Rushing Fall winning the Fillie turf race on Breeders Cup Day. Powerful Race.
Untamed is a horse Ive want to see win but so far, just mediocre results.
Fourpence,a runner up to Mendelssohn on March 9th,and 3 weeks later a disappointing 9th in the UAE Derby.

Dont see either keeping up with Rushing Fall.
Maybe theres another in here I just dont see.
Anyway 6-1 ml on Rushing Fall. I know that wont hold up but gotta like this horse to win on Saturday. Any thoughts guys.
Heres the win on Breeders Cup Day



winnihttps://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Rushing_Fallng
vetdrm PM vetdrm
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Posted: 5/2/2018 12:26:37 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-3YNYCo3o8


vetdrm PM vetdrm
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Posted: 5/2/2018 12:40:11 PM
Shes cross entered in Fridays Edgewood where she is the solid 4-5 fav.
Dont see that happening with Rain in the forecast.
Better odds Saturday.
Midnight1 PM Midnight1
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Posted: 5/2/2018 8:57:37 PM
A note about Mendelssohn...he has traveled from Ireland to Dubai back to Ireland then to Louisville via Indianapolis. He will have to fight to get the lead Saturday unlike his race in Dubai. Throwing him out of my tickets.
Snookslayer PM Snookslayer
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Posted: 5/2/2018 10:55:31 PM

I eliminate any horse no finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races and any horse not born in the great state of Kentucky. Those arbitrary qualifiers account for about 80% of Derby winners over the past 75 years.

And of course, I ain't touching the Apollo Curse.

That leaves................ Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Enticed, Good Magic and Bolt d'Oro.

Among them, Bolt d'Oro has the most impressive resume and a decent post position. Good luck gentlemen. 

giant_causeway PM giant_causeway
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Posted: 5/3/2018 3:48:11 AM

Ante-Post book:

Solomini 25/1 EW, 33/1 EW

Magnum Moon 16/1

Hofburg 20/1 EW

Tricky one. Didn't think much of last year's Juvenile class hence taking the default EW bet Good Magic for the Juvenile race. He pissed up nicely. Not sure he is improving though. Think this year's equivalent of Exaggerator is Solomini and like him a lot. Some concern over his inability to switch leads but seems to do that ok in his last workout. Price makes him worth a shot. Form already entitles him to be thereabouts and if he can improve a little bit more now he seems to have learned to switch leads, he has win possibilities. The Draw of 17 is a concern given statistics about that post but it isn't impossible.

 

Magnum Moon I have in the book but gone right off him. The way he hung right at the end of his last start suggests there is a quirk yet to reveal itself. Could be tiredness and the trip might stretch him too. Also has the Apollo curse to overcome. Have the option to cash out for a small profit but not sure yet.

 

Hofburg I just added couple of days ago. Think he is strong contender for the Belmont Stakes but concerned over lack of experience. Think, given his experienced connections (Juddmonte, Mott) and the rarity they actually run a bonafide Derby contender in recent years, this could be indicative of the ability he has at home or the chances they think he has. Worth having onside.

 

Not sure I'll add any more! Do like Good Magic and Vino Rosso but can't back them all! If they drift in the market to perhaps 16/1 and 20/1 respectively, I might add them as savers but Solomini is the undisputed top pick for me. Both Magnum Moon and Hofburg solid savers. 

 

From a European perspective, Mendelssohn is very much an unknown. The problem isn't just the surface but also his breeding. Scat Daddy seems to be a massive influence for speed. As popular and sexy a stallion he is, it's a big jump from siring turf Group One winning sprinters to siring a Kentucky Derby winner. His dam has the Rialto/Sif stamina influence in her pedigree giving him a decent shot at staying the trip. For me, it's a price thing as I'm unwilling to want to pay 9/2 to find out whether he acts on dirt.

vetdrm PM vetdrm
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Posted: 5/3/2018 5:15:51 AM
Yes,was nice to see lead change at top of stretch.[29th]
Thats a hoof in the right direction.
Grinder type will drop in from outside post and I think sit back a little farther back then usual,by design. Dont see post being big problem.
Think hes flying under the radar,with his pair of 92 beyers in 2018.
Maybe he just didnt like Oaklawn.
But 3rd start of the cycle,and sometimes we see that its Bafferts other horse that gets the job done
Hofburg seems to be getting lots of press,along with Bolt.
Thanks for chiming in,my friend from across the pond
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