115 - 78 @ 60% for +29.2 Units
Fri, 03/18
#1: Denver Nuggets +6
What can I say about the Nuggz that you don’t know yet? This team is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games, they’ve won their last 4 road games by an average margin of 13 points, and they’re getting Gallinari back tonight, one game after getting Afflalo back on the floor. This team is deep, fast, and most importantly, they’re playing with excellent ‘effort’ evidenced by their improvement on the defensive end. This is a team that has been allowing 104 ppg with Carmelo in the lineup. In the 11 games without him, the Nuggz are holding their opponents to 95 ppg. That is tremendous improvement. It’s this improvement, as well as an already efficient offense, that has made Denver one of the better teams in the league.
Orlando is coming into this one having just completed an unimpressive 5-game road trip. They went 3-2 SU but only 1-4 ATS in that span. Actually this team is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. Now they come back home to play against the ‘hottest’ team in the league, only to turn around and go back on the road for 2 more games. Keep in mind that Magic are only 1-6 ATS this season, after playing 3+ consecutive road games.
I know this is a ‘revenge’ game for Orlando, but the fact that Denver is such a different team now, and Magic is only 8-13 ATS revenging a loss, I don’t see this factor applying here. Normally I hate ‘fading’ Orlando since Howard posses such huge match-up problems, but with Nene, Kmart, and BirdMan, Denver has enough depth and size in their front-line to at least contain him, somewhat. Magic are only 4-8 ATS against teams with a winning record in their last 12 games, while Denver is 9-3 ATS in the same time-span. Add in the fact that Orlando is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after a win, 1-6 ATS as a favorite in their last 7, and 0-4 ATS in home games following a long road-trip, and I like this play even more.
#2: Boston Celtics -1.5
I don’t know what it is between these 2 teams, but the visitor has won the last 6 games between them. The road team is 13-3 ATS, while the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 visits to Houston. Something about playing on the road, brings up the best in the visitors in this match-up. Well, I expect this trend to continue tonight.
Celts are seeking ‘revenge’ in this one, as Houston beat them in Boston earlier this year. Rockets were missing Kevin Martin in that one, but got tremendous effort from Battier and Brooks, neither one of whom is any longer with the team. Celtics didn’t show much intensity in that game, prompting Doc to voice his frustration post-game. I expect him to remind the players of their lackadaisical effort in that one. Even though Boston is 9-10-2 ATS, they are 17-4 SU revenging a loss this year. Add in the fact that Boston now trails the Bulls by ½ a game for 1st place in the East, and I expect them to really play well tonight.
Houston should have Scola back for this game as he went through practice yesterday, but how ‘healthy’ is he to bang in the post with KG all game long? In addition Houston is only 1-5 ATS this year as a home dog in this spread-range. They are also only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games when facing a team with a ‘winning’ road record. I like Celts to ‘GET ‘ER DONE’ tonight!
#3: Dallas Mavericks -2
Mavericks are 4-0 in the last 4 games against the Spurs in which Dirk Nowitzki plays. This year, they are 1-0 in this scenario. The other 2 games, Mavs played without Dirk as he was out with injuries, and consequently the Spurs won both of them. This sets up a nice ‘double-revenge’ angle for Dallas, with a healthy Nowitzki at the helm.
What stands out to me is the fact that the Spurs are only 3-8 ATS against winning teams in their last 11 games. Dallas, on the other hand, is 8-4 ATS against winning teams in their last 12 games. Actually, this team thrives when playing ‘good’ competition, going 21-12 ATS this year against a ‘quality’ opponent. Big part of Spurs’ issues against quality opponents has been their lack of D lately. In their last 5 games, this team is allowing 105 ppg and 48% from the field to their opponents. Against a Dallas team that scores 101 ppg and shoots 48% from the field on their own home court, it could be a ‘long-night’ for the Spurs and a ‘short’ one for Dallas’ starters.
I know Mavs’ D hasn’t been great lately either, as they allowed 102 ppg and 46% from the floor in their last 5, but this team is still very good defensively at home. Keep in mind that 3 of these last 5 games have been on the road. At home this year, Dallas allows 95.9 ppg to their opponents, good for #12 in the league. Those that are ‘regular’ readers of my analysis might know that I’ve been tracking Spurs’ performance on the road against teams that are top 10 in the league in home-defense. Spurs are 3-7 against those opponents this season and 1-5 in their last 6. Well, Dallas is not in top 10 in home-defense, but they are pretty close, thus making it a ‘factor’ in tonight’s matchup.
The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 squads, and the Spurs are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in Dallas. I like Dallas to win and cover this regular-season finale between the 2 rivals.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFL: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFLP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
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'TOTAL: 145-112 @ 56% for +$23,730
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."