If he gets a decent post on Wednesday, I'll have money across the board on him and he'll be in every one of my gimmicks.
The connections alone LINK might make this horse a good value bet at the huge price he's probably going to go off at. These people don't ship horses around the world to say "We had a horse in the Kentucky Derby or any other race" They only ship a horse when they think it has a shot to win the race
From what I've read, they are going to try and get him out of the gate very quickly so he's one of the first 4 or 5 horses around the turn. They know that's there only chance. He likes to run on the front end. It's not going to be easy to accomplish that but if they do, he might have a big shot. If you watch his race from Dubai there is no question in my mind he can get the distance. The jockey had a hard time pulling him up after that race and that was only 1/16th shorter than the Derby.
ARTICLE (quote from the jockey below)
“Last year the dirt was quite wet and he missed the break so he didn’t run very well. But if the weather is good the surface will be sound and I think he’ll handle it much better,” he said.
“There’s an awful lot of speed in the race, an awful lot of front-runners. So I think the first two furlongs will be very important. If we get a good draw, and we’re able to get a good position, that will help us,” O’Donoghue added. “His overall form is good. He won the Royal Lodge last year and horses have come out of that and won.”
ARTICLE (quote below from the trainer of Prospective where he also mentions that the track was weird on Breeders Cup Day because of the rain.)
Prospective won the Tampa Bay Derby to vault him into the Kentucky Derby conversation, and Casse believes the conditions will be much different than that wet November day.
''It was a different track because of the rain. This track (Churchill) not only is affected by moisture, but by the heat,'' Casse said. ''This track, the hotter it gets, the firmer it gets and I think the better he's going to like it. I heard the forecast is for 82 on Derby day, so it'll be just fine with us.''
If he gets a decent post on Wednesday, I'll have money across the board on him and he'll be in every one of my gimmicks.
The connections alone LINK might make this horse a good value bet at the huge price he's probably going to go off at. These people don't ship horses around the world to say "We had a horse in the Kentucky Derby or any other race" They only ship a horse when they think it has a shot to win the race
From what I've read, they are going to try and get him out of the gate very quickly so he's one of the first 4 or 5 horses around the turn. They know that's there only chance. He likes to run on the front end. It's not going to be easy to accomplish that but if they do, he might have a big shot. If you watch his race from Dubai there is no question in my mind he can get the distance. The jockey had a hard time pulling him up after that race and that was only 1/16th shorter than the Derby.
ARTICLE (quote from the jockey below)
“Last year the dirt was quite wet and he missed the break so he didn’t run very well. But if the weather is good the surface will be sound and I think he’ll handle it much better,” he said.
“There’s an awful lot of speed in the race, an awful lot of front-runners. So I think the first two furlongs will be very important. If we get a good draw, and we’re able to get a good position, that will help us,” O’Donoghue added. “His overall form is good. He won the Royal Lodge last year and horses have come out of that and won.”
ARTICLE (quote below from the trainer of Prospective where he also mentions that the track was weird on Breeders Cup Day because of the rain.)
Prospective won the Tampa Bay Derby to vault him into the Kentucky Derby conversation, and Casse believes the conditions will be much different than that wet November day.
''It was a different track because of the rain. This track (Churchill) not only is affected by moisture, but by the heat,'' Casse said. ''This track, the hotter it gets, the firmer it gets and I think the better he's going to like it. I heard the forecast is for 82 on Derby day, so it'll be just fine with us.''
ARTICLE (Aiden O'Brien talking about what happened in the Breeders Cup and how it wasn't the dirt that was the problem. It was the start)
"The Breeders' Cup was more about the start than it was the dirt," O'Brien said from his office at Ballydoyle. "He lost it out of the gate and wasn't as quick enough and sharp enough in the first furlong as we would have liked. But we'll know a lot more in a couple of weeks.
"We have to try anyway. You can't win if you're not in the race. He seems to be fine. He was in Dubai and we obviously were happy with him there, so I suppose we'll just have to wait and see, won't we?"
If you watch the replay of last years Breeders Cup Juvenile, you will also see him jump a shadow or something during the run to the turn.
And about Daddy Long Legs' early speed, that horse from Australia, "Helmet", that he was running with on the front end in Dubai, is/was one of the best sprinters/milers that country had last year. And he's got good early speed. So that's a positive sign that he might be able to get up front in this race if he gets out of the gate better. Although the overall early speed in that race in Dubai wasn't great.
ARTICLE (Aiden O'Brien talking about what happened in the Breeders Cup and how it wasn't the dirt that was the problem. It was the start)
"The Breeders' Cup was more about the start than it was the dirt," O'Brien said from his office at Ballydoyle. "He lost it out of the gate and wasn't as quick enough and sharp enough in the first furlong as we would have liked. But we'll know a lot more in a couple of weeks.
"We have to try anyway. You can't win if you're not in the race. He seems to be fine. He was in Dubai and we obviously were happy with him there, so I suppose we'll just have to wait and see, won't we?"
If you watch the replay of last years Breeders Cup Juvenile, you will also see him jump a shadow or something during the run to the turn.
And about Daddy Long Legs' early speed, that horse from Australia, "Helmet", that he was running with on the front end in Dubai, is/was one of the best sprinters/milers that country had last year. And he's got good early speed. So that's a positive sign that he might be able to get up front in this race if he gets out of the gate better. Although the overall early speed in that race in Dubai wasn't great.
DADDY LONG LEGS compared to DADDY NOSE BEST
Some people think Daddy Nose Best has a decent shot in the Derby so I thought I'd make this comparison.
They are both sired by Scat Daddy, who was the leading first crop sire last year.
LINK
LINK
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Daddy Long Legs cost $100,000 and was the 8th most expensive of 51 horses sired by Scat Daddy sold in 2010.
Daddy Nose Best cost $35,000 and was the 27th most expensive of 51 horses sired by Scat Daddy sold in 2010.
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Daddy Nose Best beat Lucky Chappy by a nose in the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate.
Daddy Long Legs beat Lucky Chappy by 9 lengths in the G2 UAE Derby in Dubai.
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Daddy Nose Best lost to Wrote by 3.75 lenths (6th) in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. (with some trouble)
Daddy Long Legs has defeated Wrote twice. First time in the Royal Lodge as a 2yr old and the second time in Dubai in the UAE Derby as a 3yr old.
Wrote was #4 on the Experimental Free Handicap for 2 yr olds of 2011.
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Another thing interesting about Daddy Nose Best is that he came off that Tapeta at Golden Gate and won on dirt at Sunland in the G3 Sunland Derby. And these two races were after he ran 6 races in a row on turf.
That's very similar to what Daddy Long Legs is trying to accomplish in the Derby. The UAE Derby in Dubai was run on Tapeta. Everybody says that Daddy Long Legs is "American Bred with a dirt pedigree". That race in the BC Juvenile was more than likely just a bad race. He has excuses.
And besides that, how reliable is a sample size of 1 when it comes to predicting future events? You can't say a horse can't run on dirt based on one race.
LINK to Brisnet Derby PP's
DADDY LONG LEGS compared to DADDY NOSE BEST
Some people think Daddy Nose Best has a decent shot in the Derby so I thought I'd make this comparison.
They are both sired by Scat Daddy, who was the leading first crop sire last year.
LINK
LINK
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daddy Long Legs cost $100,000 and was the 8th most expensive of 51 horses sired by Scat Daddy sold in 2010.
Daddy Nose Best cost $35,000 and was the 27th most expensive of 51 horses sired by Scat Daddy sold in 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daddy Nose Best beat Lucky Chappy by a nose in the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate.
Daddy Long Legs beat Lucky Chappy by 9 lengths in the G2 UAE Derby in Dubai.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daddy Nose Best lost to Wrote by 3.75 lenths (6th) in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. (with some trouble)
Daddy Long Legs has defeated Wrote twice. First time in the Royal Lodge as a 2yr old and the second time in Dubai in the UAE Derby as a 3yr old.
Wrote was #4 on the Experimental Free Handicap for 2 yr olds of 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another thing interesting about Daddy Nose Best is that he came off that Tapeta at Golden Gate and won on dirt at Sunland in the G3 Sunland Derby. And these two races were after he ran 6 races in a row on turf.
That's very similar to what Daddy Long Legs is trying to accomplish in the Derby. The UAE Derby in Dubai was run on Tapeta. Everybody says that Daddy Long Legs is "American Bred with a dirt pedigree". That race in the BC Juvenile was more than likely just a bad race. He has excuses.
And besides that, how reliable is a sample size of 1 when it comes to predicting future events? You can't say a horse can't run on dirt based on one race.
LINK to Brisnet Derby PP's
Scat Daddy DRF Past Performances before the 2007 Kentucky Derby (He's horse #18)
He finished 18th in the Derby and was retired. But you can see that he liked to run close to the pace. Daddy Long Legs is the same way.
Master Of Hounds DRF Past Performances
He finished 5th beaten 5 lengths in last years Kentucky Derby at odds of 17-1. Compare it to Daddy Long Legs past performances. Some people think Daddy Long Legs is the better horse of the two. Master Of Hounds had no early speed at all and he had a turf sire, KingMambo.
Scat Daddy DRF Past Performances before the 2007 Kentucky Derby (He's horse #18)
He finished 18th in the Derby and was retired. But you can see that he liked to run close to the pace. Daddy Long Legs is the same way.
Master Of Hounds DRF Past Performances
He finished 5th beaten 5 lengths in last years Kentucky Derby at odds of 17-1. Compare it to Daddy Long Legs past performances. Some people think Daddy Long Legs is the better horse of the two. Master Of Hounds had no early speed at all and he had a turf sire, KingMambo.
DADDY LONG LEGS compared to DADDY NOSE BEST
Some people think Daddy Nose Best has a decent shot in the Derby so I thought I'd make this comparison.
They are both sired by Scat Daddy, who was the leading first crop sire last year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daddy Long Legs cost $100,000 and was the 8th most expensive of 51 horses sired by Scat Daddy sold in 2010.
Daddy Nose Best cost $35,000 and was the 27th most expensive of 51 horses sired by Scat Daddy sold in 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daddy Nose Best beat Lucky Chappy by a nose in the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate.
Daddy Long Legs beat Lucky Chappy by 9 lengths in the G2 UAE Derby in Dubai.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daddy Nose Best lost to Wrote by 3.75 lenths (6th) in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. (with some trouble)
Daddy Long Legs has defeated Wrote twice. First time in the Royal Lodge as a 2yr old and the second time in Dubai in the UAE Derby as a 3yr old.
Wrote was #4 on the Experimental Free Handicap for 2 yr olds of 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another thing interesting about Daddy Nose Best is that he came off that Tapeta at Golden Gate and won on dirt at Sunland in the G3 Sunland Derby. And these two races were after he ran 6 races in a row on turf.
That's very similar to what Daddy Long Legs is trying to accomplish in the Derby. The UAE Derby in Dubai was run on Tapeta. Everybody says that Daddy Long Legs is "American Bred with a dirt pedigree". That race in the BC Juvenile was more than likely just a bad race. He has excuses.
And besides that, how reliable is a sample size of 1 when it comes to predicting future events? You can't say a horse can't run on dirt based on one race.
Welch has been all over DNB for a few weeks and the guy is tops in watching form.
I really hope there is a matchup bet on my book between DLL and DNB.
DADDY LONG LEGS compared to DADDY NOSE BEST
Some people think Daddy Nose Best has a decent shot in the Derby so I thought I'd make this comparison.
They are both sired by Scat Daddy, who was the leading first crop sire last year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daddy Long Legs cost $100,000 and was the 8th most expensive of 51 horses sired by Scat Daddy sold in 2010.
Daddy Nose Best cost $35,000 and was the 27th most expensive of 51 horses sired by Scat Daddy sold in 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daddy Nose Best beat Lucky Chappy by a nose in the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate.
Daddy Long Legs beat Lucky Chappy by 9 lengths in the G2 UAE Derby in Dubai.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daddy Nose Best lost to Wrote by 3.75 lenths (6th) in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. (with some trouble)
Daddy Long Legs has defeated Wrote twice. First time in the Royal Lodge as a 2yr old and the second time in Dubai in the UAE Derby as a 3yr old.
Wrote was #4 on the Experimental Free Handicap for 2 yr olds of 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another thing interesting about Daddy Nose Best is that he came off that Tapeta at Golden Gate and won on dirt at Sunland in the G3 Sunland Derby. And these two races were after he ran 6 races in a row on turf.
That's very similar to what Daddy Long Legs is trying to accomplish in the Derby. The UAE Derby in Dubai was run on Tapeta. Everybody says that Daddy Long Legs is "American Bred with a dirt pedigree". That race in the BC Juvenile was more than likely just a bad race. He has excuses.
And besides that, how reliable is a sample size of 1 when it comes to predicting future events? You can't say a horse can't run on dirt based on one race.
Welch has been all over DNB for a few weeks and the guy is tops in watching form.
I really hope there is a matchup bet on my book between DLL and DNB.
Welch has been all over DNB for a few weeks and the guy is tops in watching form.
I really hope there is a matchup bet on my book between DLL and DNB.
Did Mike Welsch fly to Ireland to watch Daddy Long Legs train?
Welch has been all over DNB for a few weeks and the guy is tops in watching form.
I really hope there is a matchup bet on my book between DLL and DNB.
Did Mike Welsch fly to Ireland to watch Daddy Long Legs train?
Did Mike Welsch fly to Ireland to watch Daddy Long Legs train?
Point well taken.
He cetainly has seen video of it because he has reported the moves in pretty good detail.
I give you props for picking this horse in the UAE Derby, but I don't see him here.
Did Mike Welsch fly to Ireland to watch Daddy Long Legs train?
Point well taken.
He cetainly has seen video of it because he has reported the moves in pretty good detail.
I give you props for picking this horse in the UAE Derby, but I don't see him here.
He cetainly has seen video of it because he has reported the moves in pretty good detail.
As far as I know Welsch hasn't said anything about Daddy Long Legs so far. Maybe in the next few days. He's arriving from Ireland today.
And I hope you were kidding about the video because there is no way in hell that Mike Welsch has video of this horse working out at Ballydoyle.
He cetainly has seen video of it because he has reported the moves in pretty good detail.
As far as I know Welsch hasn't said anything about Daddy Long Legs so far. Maybe in the next few days. He's arriving from Ireland today.
And I hope you were kidding about the video because there is no way in hell that Mike Welsch has video of this horse working out at Ballydoyle.
As far as I know Welsch hasn't said anything about Daddy Long Legs so far. Maybe in the next few days. He's arriving from Ireland today.
And I hope you were kidding about the video because there is no way in hell that Mike Welsch has video of this horse working out at Ballydoyle.
He reported DLL workouts in his daily clocker reports.
And as for the video answer, how do you think he was able to describe Palm Meadow works, etc.?
In this day and age, every Derby contender workout is captured on video.
As far as I know Welsch hasn't said anything about Daddy Long Legs so far. Maybe in the next few days. He's arriving from Ireland today.
And I hope you were kidding about the video because there is no way in hell that Mike Welsch has video of this horse working out at Ballydoyle.
He reported DLL workouts in his daily clocker reports.
And as for the video answer, how do you think he was able to describe Palm Meadow works, etc.?
In this day and age, every Derby contender workout is captured on video.
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