The PGA Tour is back with a bang – and picking a winner from a loaded field could prove to be a fun challenge for golf bettors.
A field of champions and the most consistent players of 2019-20 will descend upon the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Hawaii, among the Sentry Tournament of Champions betting picks. There are plenty of intriguing storylines to follow this weekend, and there will be no shortage of elite golfers who should generate lots of betting interest.
We preview the field, break down the course, and give our Sentry Tournament of Champions picks and predictions for this weekend's PGA event.
Kapalua Plantation Course Betting Stats that Matter
The Plantation Course has long been considered one of the most charitable courses on the PGA Tour. Per PGATour.com's Reid Fowler, players hit greens in regulation at a clip 13 percent higher than the tour average, leading to an immense number of birdie attempts on greens that had traditionally offered little resistance to the best the PGA Tour has to offer.
The 2020 tournament, however, got even, with strong winds and modifications to several greens resulting in scores rising across the board. Look for the field to adjust accordingly, with scores more in line with previous years. Stats to track here include SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach, along with Par 4 scoring (since pretty much everyone will dominate the easy par-5s).
Sentry Tournament of Champions Outright Winner Bets
The top of the Tournament of Champions odds list is a who's-who of PGA Tour stardom, with Dustin Johnson (+600) leading the pack. Justin Thomas is a close second at +700, with Jon Rahm right behind at +750. Other notables include Bryson DeChambeau at +900, Webb Simpson at +2,000, Daniel Berger at +2,800 and Sungjae Im at +4,000.
Who will win the Sentry Tournament of Champions? Here's our best guess:
Justin Thomas (+700)
Thomas is the defending champion at Kapalua, rolling to a 72-hole score of 14-under and a playoff victory over Patrick Reed and Xander Schauffele. And here's the thing about Thomas: You know you're going to get a strong performance from him even if conditions get a little hairy. Winds aren't expected to exceed 20 mph at the Plantation Course this week, but if things do pick up, you're going to be glad you took Thomas. He has one of the most well-rounded games on tour, and should contend all week.
Mackenzie Hughes (+11,000)
It's one thing to take a player like Hughes in a tournament with a weaker field – but you really have to have faith in the Canadian to take him as an outright play this weekend. That said, Hughes has two Top-10 finishes in six events in the 2020-21 season and has been riding one of the hottest putters on tour, recording the best SG: Putting score over his previous 12 tournaments. He has a proven ability to string birdies together and is an interesting dart throw at extremely long odds.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Matchup Predictions
Xander Schauffele Over Jon Rahm (+120)
These kinds of marquee matchups can be so difficult to handicap – but we have two reasons to love Schauffele in this two-ball pairing. On the Schauffele side, he has looked positively dominant at Kapalua, winning the 2019 event while reaching the playoff last year. He has shot a combined 37-under the past two tournaments there, which is absurd. Add in the fact that Rahm will be using new clubs this week after switching from TaylorMade to Callaway, and it's hard to see him upending Schauffele.
Patrick Reed Over Sebastian Munoz (-163)
This matchup carries a lot less value for the favorite than most other pairings, but we're fully on board. Munoz has posted just one Top-10 result in his first eight tournaments of the new season, and hasn't excelled in any one area of his game. Reed, on the other hand, posted a T13 at the U.S. Open and a T10 at the Masters. His SG: Approach and SG: Putting are elite in the new season, and he has one of the best overall games going. He also finished second here last year. We like this prop a lot.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Prop Bets
Dustin Johnson Top-5 Finish (+130)
Here's the beauty of an event like this: If you'd rather not take a shot on one of the top golfers on an outright play, you can take a step back, take the Top-5 prop and still get decent odds. Johnson is a terrific bet to finish near the top of the leaderboard based solely on his finishes here the past seven years: 1st, 6th, 10th, 6th, 1st, 4th, 7th. Johnson boasts the lowest scoring average on tour in the early going, and should feast on Kapalua en route to a strong showing.
Winning Margin: Won in Playoff (+333)
The margins for this tournament have been all over the place since it first became the Tournament of Champions in 2011. In 10 events over that span, we've seen three decided in a playoff, with two one-shot wins, two three-shot victories, a four-shot win and two eight-shot triumphs. We're of the feeling that this is going to be a close one, with everyone having enjoyed several weeks off and little separating the cream of the crop. At these odds, a second straight playoff is very much in play.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Card
- Justin Thomas Outright (+700)
- Mackenzie Hughes Outright (+11000)
- Xander Schauffele Over Jon Rahm (+120)
- Patrick Reed Over Sebastian Munoz (-163)
- Dustin Johnson Top-5 Finish (+130)
- Winning Margin: Won in Playoff (+333)
Where Can I Bet on PGA golf?
With PGA betting growing in popularity, pretty much all online sportsbooks will offer golf odds for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Check out our top listings page for the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what PGA Tour odds they have available.
